Anyone know of any musings on how Italy might have developed had Mussolinii not entered into the Pact of Steel ? I guess I’m ultimately looking for theoretical diagnoses of Fascism post-WWII.
BA
Early on, Mussolini was very critical of Hitler’s rise.
Churchill mentions that there were high-level talks between Rome & London about containing Hitler.
I suspect that Mussolini would have allied with France, possibly in exchange for territory in North Africa.
Hitler would likely have consolidated control over Austria & Czechoslovakia before expanding further.
This would have given him time to develop more technology. Maybe V-1s at the start of the war. Maybe jets.
Few troops for the Reich, but better armed.
If Hitler hadn’t gone into Greece, his invasion of Russia would have been a very critical month earlier, and it might have succeeded. That would have been BAD for the Allies.
OTOH, Spain was a more or less Fascist state, freindly but not allied to Hitler, and it fared neither good nor bad in the War and post-war years.
Probably something similar to what happened with Franco I imagine… assuming that Hitler wasn’t going to a) use the Italian fascists to depose Mussolini* and/or invade Italy himself.
I think barring a and b he would have survived because the economic blockade and military disasters that brought him down were brought about by his entry into World War II and not by any inherent weakness in his government. Post WWII, I think, Like Franco, he would have been seen as a bulwark against the reds.
*By July 1943, Italy had lost all of it colonies in Africa, and most of its army, was almost entirely subordinate to, and working to meet, German needs and was being invaded when Mussolini was deposed by a revolt within his own Fascist Grand Council
You’re basically looking for opinions, not that there aren’t some pretty-well factual answers involved.
But, I’ve moved this from GQ to IMHO.
samclem GQ moderator
I don’t think you can use Spain as a model of what would have happened to Italy. Italy was a lot more advanced into the modern era and, lacking the coal ressources that gave Great Britain a lead in the industrial revolution, would still have caught up with the rest of Europe as they all moved from coal to oil.
Since this is now an IHMO question, I’d speculate that the magnates of Italian finance and industry would support the Facists as a bulwark against both the Communists and the Pope, peacefully making handsome profits from exported high performance jeeps and stylish combat boots. If Mussolini had died of a heart attack on his marble floor during one of his frequent bouts of copulation and been replaced by Count Ciano (behind the desk, not on the floor) before Italy joined Hitler, this would have been a likely outcome.
As was pointed out, the alliance with Germany was a disaster for Italy. Italy had no resources to fight a war (no coal, had to import most raw materials), and was vulnerable to attack by sea, beacuse of their long coastline. Mussolini thought that WWII would be a short conflict, and by allying himself with Germany, he could take over the French colonies in Africa-bad idea!
Actually, Mussolini was an expert in deluding himself-when Italy declared warin 1940, it had:
-an obsolescent airforce (still flying onbsolete BIPLANE fighters)!
- afair-sized Navy (but NO aircraft carriers)
-an army equipped with WWI-vintage weapons, and commanded by political hacks (think of disastrous commanders like Gen. Graziani)
All of which virtually guaranteed that the war would be a disaster for Italy. Actually, had they confined themselves to seizing worthless bits of territory (like Libya and Ethiopia), things might not have been too bad for them.
But teaming up with Hitler was abad idea!