Let’s suppose that Sarah Palin resigns or is dropped from the Republican ticket in the near future - either something scandalous comes up that can’t be denied or something happens in her personal life that makes her decide she needs to concentrate on her family.
Who do you think McCain would replace her with? Who do you think he SHOULD replace her with, if this is a different answer from the first question? And how do you think these choices would affect his chances?
I think it depends in part on why she leaves. If it’s a voluntary resignation due to non-controversial reasons (i.e. medical problems with her or her immediate family) McCain would probably try to replace her with someone as much like her as possible, to hold on to the social conservatives that she’s made excited about the campaign. In this case, I think it might help him win - he could hold on to the people energized by the Palin nomination and gain some fence-sitters who were put-off by her fiscal policies in Alaska. It wouldn’t help him with the independents who were put off by her social conservatism and religious beliefs if he got someone just like her, but the race is close enough that if he doesn’t lose the votes that Palin gained him and picks up just a few more people who are put off by her fiscal irresponsibility, he’d still have a chance.
I can’t decide what I think he’d do if she was forced out because of a scandal. It will alienate her die-hard supporters, who probably won’t believe whatever allegations are made against her despite the evidence, and make them stay home because of McCain “caving in to the Liberal media”. He’d have to make a choice to pick up more people who were against him to begin with to make up for that. I personally think it might win him some support if he showed strength of character by admitting a mistake and “fighting corruption” by ditching a VP seen as corrupt, but the replacement would have to be someone radically different from Palin…perhaps one of the more socially liberal Republicans? Linda Lingle has shown an ability to win votes from the other side of the fence, and would probably convince a lot of moderately conservative but pro-choice women to switch sides.
In terms of winning the election, I don’t think it would matter who he picked, he’d be screwed. The idea that he alone has the experience and wisdom to lead this country would become much harder to defend after bungling such a crucial decision.
I would kind of hope that he’d tell the most conservative wing of his party to get bent, this time he’s going to pick someone who reflects his own standards and believes, but maybe he’s too much in the habit of kowtowing to them now. Besides, I’m not sure if any politician worth his salt would want to be associated so closely with such a loser.*
Not a slam against McCain, just reflecting how I think he would be perceived in the hypothetical.
But – but – but she’s going to give an interview to the vicious liberal media! She’s bravely going to do an interview with that paragon of hard-hitting reporter, Charlie Gibson of ABC News! Can she survive the tough, probing questions he’s bound to hit her with? Can she
Oh, crap, even as snark I can’t keep it up. :rolleyes:
She’ll get lobbed some softballs (probably having seen them beforehand), hit them outta the park, get hailed as brilliant and courageous, and remove the “Why is she hiding from the press?” issue off the table.
ETF, I’ve never watched ABC News since Jennings died. Is Charlie Gibson known for being a right winger or a light weight? I wish it could be Bill Lehrer, but at least it isn’t a Faux News guy. I looked him up on Wiki, and he didn’t look to be particularly evil there. What’s the deal on him?
It would be less surprising if McCain were dropped. But of course, that would never happen either. It’s McCain/Palin until the end.
Palin is currently the most popular politician in the U.S. Her popularity numbers are higher than McCain’s or Obama’s. She’s even got other nations talking. Apparently, the Chinese are fascinated with her, and the papers in the U.K. are all over her - maybe because she reminds them a bit of Thatcher or something. There’s no way in hell she’ll be dropped from the ticket.
In fact, she’s so popular right now that every effort to dig dirt on her seems to be causing a backlash that’s actually making her more popular.
BTW, today’s Rasmussen tracking poll has the race tied (and it started tracking before the end of the Republican convention, so it will probably climb higher over the next few days). Zogby has McCain up by 3 points today.
Last week, McCain was going through the motions. The Republican party was divided, the people were sour on them, and Republicans themselves were dispirited and unlikely to work hard at the grassroots level. Obama was a huge favorite, and it was hard to see how he could lose.
Today, the ‘it’ factor is on the Republican side, Obama’s having a hard time getting media attention, the Republicans are jazzed and excited, and the whole country is talking about Palin. She has single-handedly turned the election. There is no way in hell she gets dropped from the ticket - there would be a Republican revolt if that happened.
Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopoulos teamed up to “moderate” the last debate between Clinton and Obama, and used that forum to do an outrageous hatchet job on Obama. Clinton got lobbed softballs, Obama got hit with all the bogus crap then rampant: flap lapel pins, Wright, and so on. It was utterly disgusting and disgraceful.
I’ll soon be infamous for my lack of cites. BUT … I recently read an article on the rules for such a thing. If he had changed his mind before they went to the convention and formally accepted, he could have done anything he wanted. But once they accepted the nominations, to change the VP on the ticket would require the approval of a panel of 100+ Repub bigwigs. I don’t see it happening at this point. She’s too *popular *anyway … oh wait I didn’t mean to insult her!
OK, thanks. I wasn’t watching those debates. I had already decided that Obama had a better shot than Clinton, and wasn’t yet engaged in the politics. I really started getting interested late spring/early summer. Had to do a lot of catching up. The Dope has been helpful in providing cites. Thanks.
If McCain wanted another running mate who had executive experience and could shore up the social-conservative vote, the best choice would be Mike Huckabee.
But Huckabee’s economic populism would alienate the party’s even more important corporate base.
The complete sentence was “There is no way in hell she gets dropped from the ticket - there would be a Republican revolt if that happened.” That’s not an answer to the (hypothetical) question, it’s a restatement of your premise.
You are ignoring that the OP did postulate that one reason for her going might be medical. If she drops dead or is permanently mentally incapacitated, I have trouble imagining even the Republicans propping her up and running her as a VP candidate. And not even the Republican base is likely to “revolt” as you put it against McCain for replacing her for that reason.
Shit, they wouldn’t have to do that, just say that she holds her parental and familial duties first. Truth be told, if I believed it, I’d admire it. But the base would eat it up with a spoon. No, if she wants it, she has a free “I’m outa here!” card, so long as she cashes it soon enough. Johnny Mac would be well and truly fucked, fer sure, fer sure, but she could run again…