Sorry if this belongs in IMHO. The defecit is becoming increasingly bothersome to me, and although I’m not really a fan of the stuff, it seems like a perfectly reasonable and probably significant source of income. So how much might it bring in on a yearly basis? How much would each pack (?) be taxed, and on that note, how would they even be packaged? How is pot sold in other countries where it is legal, similar to cigarettes or similar to the way it is sold now (loose)?
It would probably be sold like tobacco: primarily as cigarettes, but with pouches of dope available for the roll-your-own crowd. I would expect that it would be restricted in the same ways as alcohol is: you’d have to be 21 (or maybe even older) to buy or use it, and it would be illegal to operate any sort of vehicle while under the influence.
As for tax revenue, that would depend on how many people used it. I would expect that pot smoking would be wildly popular at first, but the number of people who used it regularly would decline as the novelty wore off.
Also, I expect that dope would be heavily taxed, due to the “sin tax” mentality.
But doesn’t the government tax based on supply and demand, i.e. as high as possible until total income drops as tax gets higher?
And I disagree with your novelty statement. Most of those that I know who smoke (early to mid 20’s) have done so for years, and a few of their parents have smoked on a fairly regular basis since they were our age. No doubt there would be a group of people who would try it since it’s legal, but quite a few people try alcohol/cigarettes once, yet those are huge markets.
Well as to your first statement, I don’t think that’s what’s happening with cigarettes. I don’t have any cites on hand, but according to my own perception it seems that cigarette use has steadily declined over the last few years, yet taxes on them have steadily risen.
As for your second statement, I agree that all those steady smokers would still be there, but I’d also take diceman’s point that there would be an initial spike due to the novelty, which would then decline and plateau (sp?). It is extremely rare for me to take a toke these days and I never buy anymore, but I’m sure if it were legalized tomorrow I’d run out and buy a bag (box?) or 2 to [GWB]celebrate
freedom[/GWB].
Incidentally this might do better in GD, since the answer would have to be speculative, but that’s just MHO.
I don’t think that pot would be sold as packs of cigarettes like a lot of other folks seem to think. For one thing, 20 pot cigarettes is a lot of pot. Also, people like to smoke (or bake or vaporize) their pot lots of different ways–not just cigs. The most sensible thing to do would be sell it loose in little baggies.
Canadian growers were reported by Forbes Magazine as doing a $4-7bil a year business.
So theoretically there’s several billions in cash that’s willing to go into such commerce. And this is all before mass marketing kicks in.
What makes you think that government operates by such pretty logic? The governement levies taxes based on the squeaky rich wheel principle: The loudest constituency with the most money dictates what laws are passed and in what form and whether the executive signs them. No logic involved unless you also consider campaign financing.
As do I. Maybe I hang with a strange crowd, but more than half of my friends/acquaintances smoke marijuana when it is available. This sampling includes people from all walks of life in the 20 - 50 years of age group.
Also, I think the big questions would have to do with cost/quality of the product offered for sale. If marijuana were truly legalized/decriminalized, home growing would become more popular unless the product offered for sale were reasonably priced and excellent quality smoke.
Possibly, but tobacco, fruits, veggies etc. can be grown personally as well, but you see few do so. Also, for the MANY with no yard, how much of an investment would it take to purchase the necessary high lumen lighting to grow pot, maintain said lighting, and how would this affect one’s electricity bill? Not to mention pot smoking, I find, induces laziness. I suspect the grow it at home crowd would start off moderately large, but quickly fade away assuming prices post tax are reasonable.
Well, i am in a rural area and almost everyone has a vegetable garden, although it is mostly for recreation. The key is that fruits and vegies of high quality are readily available for a reasonable price, so there is little impetus to grow them. The rest of your post I am in agreement with, although I think the cost per ounce to produce an indoor garden is surprisingly low (from what I’ve heard/read).
Let’s keep in mind that the high price of marijuana at this time is almost entirely due to the illegality of the product. The dealer is compensated for his risk.
Working, for the sake of argument, on the alcohol model, the product would be taxed by weight, not price. For example, 750ml of inexpensive Kessler whiskey gets the same tax as 750ml of pricier Glenfiddich. The amount of tax is up to the lawmakers. The trend is to increase “sin taxes,” because they piss off a smaller number of voters.
On the tobacco model, the tax is per carton, or pack, not by weight or price.
On the sales tax model, the tax is linked directly to price. As the product gets cheaper, due to being legal, the tax generated falls. So, you can see that we are guessing about the whims of future lawmakers.
There is no factual answer, and that might get this moved to another forum.
I should amend the tobacco part, on second thought. Although most tobacco is sold as cigarettes, some is sold loose. That kind is taxed by weight.
This is the key point here. The current high cost of the product is because of the risks in getting product to market, not because of the difficulty in producing the product.
This is both the appeal and difficulty with predicting with any accuracy what will happen if pot gets legalized and taxed. First off - huge sin taxes could be placed on the product, and it would still become suddenly hugely cheaper than it is, now. Then there’s the question of what’s going to happen to those people who modify their use based on legality. I don’t think there’s any doubt that use will go up, but by what factor? Will it double? Treble? Something less, something more?
I don’t know. AIUI, no one has any real numbers, and can’t even predict what will happen. Will use follow a yeast-growth curve? Will use peak immediately after legalization, then drop back towards current levels? Will use plummet to nothing? I don’t think anyone has any numbers that they can defend more closely than to an order of magnitude. And I may be still expecting too much accuracy in the predictions.
And, I have no way to judge, myself. I sometimes feel I may be the only adult male in the whole frigging country who can honestly say he’s never tried pot. The legality really doesn’t matter to me, since even if it were legal I still wouldn’t have a desire to use. It’s not that I think use is right - it’s just that there are other, more important reasons to me why I don’t use. Just as the penalties for murder have nothing to do with why I don’t commit murder.
In the few places where marijuana use has been decriminalized, use has actually gone down a little. Perhaps the thrill of doing something illegal and rebellious is part of the attraction. For cites, you can look into the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws and the Marijuana Policy Project. The MPP is focused mainly on medicinal marijuana regulations, while NORML has a broader scope.
Marijuana use is illegal in most of the United States, and we don’t advocate breaking any laws here at the SDMB. Thus, I am skittish about linking to those orgs.
I gotta tell you, this is pretty hard to believe. I’ve smoked a little in the past and the only thing keeping me from indulging right now is the criminalization. Same with most of my old puffing crew. Imagine the thousands of high school students who are terrified by all the threats and propaganda suddenly given more freedom to smoke (probably not legal at that age but use the cigarette example).
Do you have a specific cite you can link to?
And as a follow up question, if da weed were legalized, would cannabis testing for jobs and whatnot be outlawed or significantly changed?
Only if the law prohibits discrimination for marijuana use. There are companies that fire you for smoking regular cigarettes.