“My fellow Americans, with a heavy heart, and in necessary fulfilment of my oath of office, I have ordered - and the United States Air Force has now carried out - military operations with conventional weapons only, to remove a major nuclear weapons build-up from the soil of Cuba.” - JFK, in a speech that was thankfully never given.
If that speech had been given and the world was pushed over the brink resulting in a full-scale nuclear exchange between the US and USSR in October 1963, what would be the most realistic results to be expected? We’ve all grown up with horror stories of nuclear exchange - nuclear winter blanketing the planet, human extinction, cockroaches being the only survivors etc. A lot of that owes more to bleak science fiction than fact.
What could the arsenals of that time have wreaked on the world and what do you think the world would look like today if that speech had been delivered and things had rapidly escalated during that tense time?
When I read that quote, I had pictured maybe a few B-52 strikes to take out the nuke bases. What the article says was planned is much larger in scope that I imagined:
Maybe they would also have needed to destroy the Soviet ships, but would that really have been necessary if they had nowhere to launch their missiles from?
What’s the point of the troops? I’m obviously not a military historian or tactician, but it seems that there were maybe tactics that wouldn’t have lessened the chance of a progression to nuclear exchange.
I don’t know if the USSR would have folded anyway or launched a full-scale assault through the Fulda Gap. If they decided to launch nukes, I for one would be a cinder, since at the time I lived just a mile or so from a major SAC base.
A full on exchange between the Soviet Union and the US in '62 would mostly have landed on Europe, assuming it went nuclear. The Soviets had ICBMs at that time, but my own memory was they had less than 3000 miles of range for the most part, which means that we’d have been talking bombers only really capable of attacking the US directly, and we had defenses for that, though I’m sure some Soviet bombers would have gotten through. The whole point of Cuba was to put us in easy range of their current generation ICBMs though…as the Soviets were in range of our NATOs at the time.
Personally, I think the Soviets would have backed down had we attacked Cuba, but I’m glad we didn’t push it to find out. I think that at the time the Soviets hand was more bluff than reality, which is why they didn’t push things on the blockade. But if we HAD pushed the button, it would have been Europe who paid the price, as the likely result would be an exchange of nuclear missiles between the Soviets and Western Europe and NATO, with the US perhaps taking a few shots via Soviet bombers, assuming they got through to our cities.
Well, I think the Soviets would have backed down, as I said, so the only difference would be in how things turned out in Cuba. I assume we’d have bombed the crap out of the nascent missile sites and associated structure, but I doubt we’d have invaded, so Cuba itself would have remained under Castro et al…though, perhaps he’d have been touring one of the missile sites when we bombed the crap out of it. There is a silver lining at least.
Had we gone to full out war, however, I don’t think much of Europe would have survived…nor much of the Soviet Union, as the exchange of nuclear fire would have been pretty devastating. The US wouldn’t have been unscathed either (not even talking about the economic impact of most of Europe going up in flames here, just our own cities being bombed), nor would any other part of the world, but it probably wouldn’t have been literal doomsday.
How in the hell would have an invasion with 90k troops been coordinated? Even in the '91 Gulf War, there were months of preparation for that. It would have required massive transport of personnel to Key West, all of which would have been seen by the Soviets
My guess: It would have been a costly fiasco-look at the “Bay of Pigs”. The Cubans were nationalists first and communists second-and they would have fought hard against any invaders. The US forces would prevail-but we would be ruling a bitter, resentful populace, and there would be plenty of atrocities on both sides. What would the Russians have done? I expect threats against European targets, bt no attacks. Cuba was just not important enough to risk nuclear war.
There was almost a nuclear exchange without an attack. Since Cuba was in possession of tactical nukes (but operated by the Soviets iirc) and the Soviets had several subs armed with nukes patrolling the waters an invasion of Cuba would’ve probably led to:
Invading U.S. forces nuked on the beaches
U.S. navy nuked
U.S. Eastern seaboard bases nuked
Cuba destroyed in counter-attack trying to take out missiles
The now tourable USS Razorback sub had a nuke in the stern tubes in the 60’s. I imagine some Russians would have been nuked, too, perhaps before the balloon went up. A good reason for both sides to back of and settle for saber rattling.
Well, not necessarily; the Navy also has (and, I presume, had in 1962) bases in Norfolk, VA; Charleston, SC; Kings Bay, GA; Jacksonville, FL; Panama City, FL; Gulfport, MI; New Orleans, LA; and Corpus Christi, TX. An invasion could have been launched from any or, better still, several of them, and the Soviets would not have known for sure until they noticed the ships converging on Cuba. Which, of course, would not have taken them long to notice.
U.S. launches sorties against Cuba
Soviets invade Berlin and launch attacks against U.S.Titan missile bases in Turkey
U.S. orders 65 aircraftalready aloft and armed with nuclear weaponsto attack their targets
Warsaw Pact launches full-scale attacks into West Germany and Austria
And all that happens before the majority of the 90,000 U.S. troops even hit the Cuban beaches.
I dunno if it would go that far. We went through Taiwan in '55, Vietnam throughout the 60s, and the Dominican Republic in '65, all without going nuclear or triggering WW3. I have a feeling that if we’d invaded Cuba it would stay a local conflict a la Korea or Vietnam. (Probably with as much success as either).
The only way I would see the conflict expanding out of the Carribean would be if the Cubans fired off some of those tactical nukes - I dunno that the Soviets would have let them do that even in the face of an invasion.
The US’s warmaking capability was more advanced back then. They had a jillion carriers in the Caribbean with their exercises already. SAC bombers were flying around the world 24/7. The world was fat and sassy in 91, as compared to 62.
Plus, the US wasn’t quite as quick on the draw in 91.
(Not comparing the soldiers; just the policies in effect.)
I’m not nearly as optimistic as you. Remember, the scenario takes place during the already-existing crisis where both sides (and presumably the Cubans, as well) are torn between going all in vs. trying to back out. Most of the 500 sorties described in the original cite would have been launched against positions manned by Soviet troops who would, I assume, try to strike back. Mainly, I contend that my scenario would unfold in a matter of minutes; troops were already massed against West Berlin, aircraft with nuclear weapons were already in the air.
And I’m not even going to think about the “overeager field commander” trigger.
I know someone who was a member of the 82nd Airborne Division during that time. He says they spent the entire Cuban Missile Crisis sitting on a runway (I forget which base, it was definitely one of the southern states) in full-gear, waiting for the word to invade Cuba.
