Yeah, sadly this is probably true.
South Korea recently put an ex president in prison for corruption and bribery. So we can wish, but we probably won’t see Trump in prison. I’d love to be wrong though.
I mean globally, its not unheard of for an ex head of state to go to prison. However I wonder how many of these nations are democracies with rule of law and not just military juntas putting the old guard in prison.
I dunno, I think Cosby would be an ideal cellie for him.
That ain’t bad, kayaker.
Bumping the thread since the likelihood of Trump going to prison has gone way up.
If he is convicted of both federal and Georgia charges, which one holds precedence (that is, does he go to state or fed prison first)? Of course, he could serve one sentence first and then the other, but realistically at his age he’s not going to live long enough to finish even one prison term.
I assume he would have no access to Twitter, no means to communicate except maybe JPay and handwritten letters. He’d definitely have to be in protective custody. And presumably there’d be Secret Service agents assigned to him 24/7 too.
To deal with the last first, a 77 year old American man has a ten year life expectancy. But an Ivy League graduate who doesn’t drink or smoke? I think his chances of living into his nineties are excellent. As for obesity, studies vary, but the older you are, the less it matters. And people in their eighties and nineties are often released early.
As for precedence, the Georgia case is more complex, with 19 defendants. Federal will be first, in terms of the trial.
But prison? That’s highly speculative. And every speculation I can think of is on the weird side.
This hypothesis is unlikely, but maybe there is none more likely: Trump wins next year and the Supreme Court will let him self-pardon for federal charges only. Then he goes to prison, on NY and/or Georgia charges, in 2029. Then he gets out for a health issue in 2030, and lives to 2040.
If Trump loses the election next year, I think he’ll go federal first. But Biden’s approval poll numbers are those of a one-termer.
Don’t bet on that. Trump is damaged goods.
In the four years since the previous thread incarnation, we do have a bunch more international precedents, including a pair of French leaders. We also see that a Bill Cosby roommate deal is out.
I don’t like the idea of the Secret Service following him into prison, but they’ve been asked about it, and refused to rule it out. I’m now thinking Trump will maybe spend some time in prison, probably in 2029, and there will be endless discussion of whether the little extras he gets, compared to normal prisoners — maybe more visitors — amount to much. I’m hoping that he’ll get extras that then will be allowed all the prisoners.
House arrest would be a political risk for anyone who endorsed it. I’m thinking it is thus unlikely, at least at first.
No problem, never bet. Don’t even stock pick.
I gather you are picking 2029 because that would be after a second Trump term. Or are you calculating appeals, delays, etc.?
Because if he gets another four years, I doubt society will be functional enough to lock him for for these felonies when he’s done.
Second term.
As for your last sentence above, one comparable is Ghana under Jerry Rawlings. High Court judges were killed. And yet the country had a sufficiently strong rule of law tradition that a decade of attempted dictatorship failed to destroy the legal system.
There is some point when term after term of Trump-style rule would result in almost all significant legal decisions being controlled by the executive. But the American legal system isn’t so easy to destroy. It bouncing back to jail Trump is highly conceivable. Part of my theme here is that history never ends, and it will never be so bad that we should, or will, just give up.
Well, France is generally considered a democracy with rule of law.
Although Wikipedia tells me that their convicted ex-President Sarkosy -who lost his last appeal earlier this year - will probably serve his sentence in home confinement.
So it’s totally not unprecedented to convict the ex-President of a liberal democracy.
I haven’t read anything suggesting that the home confinement is a sweetheart deal for either Sarkozy or former Prime Minister Fillon . That seems to be the normal punishment in a French white-collar-crime case.
Punishments are harsher in the U.S. than most other countries.
Has there ever been an election in this country where the incumbent is disliked, but his opponent is despised?
Regarding the thread title question, not much has been said about what prison is actually like for octogenarians .
Googling this, it does seem that people as old as Trump are sometimes sentenced to prison, but rarely. If too old to plausibly reoffend, judges may try to find a way out — and IMHO they should try.
From a 2009 New York Times story:
That clearly doesn’t apply in Trump’s case.
I understand Club Fed is not as cushy as it is cracked up to be. Nonetheless, those convicted of nonviolent federal crimes generally hope for a minimum security prison like the ones in this list. An example might be FPC Alderson prison for females, where Martha Stewart spent 5 months in quiet reflection.
In Georgia, minimum security prisons are labeled as transitional centers, though there are a few county prisons that also have minimum security.
My contacts in the underworld over at Quora, say that Lee State Prison is the best medium security state facility, but that county camps get better reviews: “I was at Athens Clarke County the last 6 months of my sentence and it was sweet compared to Rogers State Prison, they fed you much better, I was able to get books sent in and I only saw 2 fights in that 6 months.”
WAPO reports some debate whether ex-Presidents can go to prison in practice, given the secret service protection they are entitled to. Chuck Rosenberg: “Probation, fines, community service and home confinement are all alternatives.”
So is a plea bargain. Josh Marshall:
What is far more important than specific punishments is an accounting: Trump admitting he lost the 2020 election, that he knew he lost and tried to reverse the result and that he was wrong to do so (add here a comparable accounting for the MAL docs case and the other crimes). He has to admit that the outcomes of elections are also final and that he has to respect those results like everyone else. It would have to be the kind of detailed and specific accounting that he couldn’t easily say a few days later he’d only made under duress. In so many words, Trump has to come clean and admit that the law is the law and he has to follow it like everyone else.
Needless to say, it is almost unimaginable that Trump would ever do anything like that. So, short of that, the law should simply take its course. That’s the other way the republic demonstrates who is in charge.
Republican Vice President Spiro Agnew never spent time in prison - but he copped a plea.
Related 2020 FQ thread: Would an ex-president have Secret Service agents protecting him/her if the ex-president goes to prison? A: Yes: see above WAPO piece.
Related 2023 politics thread: Hypothetically, if Trump flees the US, where would he go?
trump would get House arrest. Nothing else is possible.
The rest- Some minimum security place. Which is not nice at all, but way way better than a Supermax.
If that were to be the case, even though we’d always know exactly where he was, I still hope he gets an ankle monitor.
Also, I saw comment somewhere the other day that if he were to end up in jail, the right would suddenly have a problem with how shitty our jail system is.
Do you mean impossible politically or logistically? Because if it’s the latter, I’m going to channel the expert/pundit I saw on MSNBC who pushed back strongly on the seemingly prevailing notion that actual prison time just isn’t possible.
This expert pointed out that we have lots of experience creating prison housing for “special” convicts—we’ve imprisoned governors, senators, etc. To use an international example, South Korea somehow found a way to put an ex-president in the slammer. He likewise pointed out that accommodating Trump’s SS protection would be trivially easy.
Whether or not prison time is justified, or the “right thing,” or politically likely, are separate questions. But there are zero logistical reasons why he couldn’t cool his heels in stir.
Wikipedia: List of heads of government who were later imprisoned - Wikipedia
" Any serving or former head who was placed under house arrest or became a prisoner of war is also included. Leaders who were kidnapped by insurgents or those who received an Interpol notice that was not consummated are not included."
As far as I can tell, French heads of state Jacques Chirac, François Fillon, and Nicolas Sarkozy were convicted but did not spend any time on ice, at least so far. But Portuguese PM José Sócrates spent 9 months in pre-trial detention, before being released for house arrest.
ETA: Apologies to the board for missing this thread: If Trump does go to prison, what would it be like?
One logistical issue that points toward at least a medium-security prison is the possibility that the Gravy Seals of Meal Team Sixpack will try to “liberate” their Mango Messiah. While the January 6 prosecutions seems to have deterred most of the Trumpoltroons from doing anything beyond ranting on social media, there are always exceptions…