If the deep state or shallow state every catches up with Trump, which country should he settle in (assuming he doesn’t want to face US legal consequences)?
Requirements: the foreign country would have to be friendly to Trump and lack an extradition treaty with the US.1 After that, it comes down to quality of life issues.
Saudi Arabia and Russia come to mind. But I think Dubai in the UAE would be most comfortable. UAE has 10 golf courses. Offshore tropical islands are another possibility, but I’m not sure they could withstand US pressure: their business models exist at the sufferance of US law and loophole. Bahrain is another possibility. What about Belarus or one of the former Soviet Badistans?
Cuba is an interesting dark horse: it has one golf course. Maybe Trump could go there on his way to Russia (5 golf courses) or one of its satellites.
Which country provides the best safe haven from international and US law for high profile runaways?
1 Arguable. Also, there would be a wider selection of havens if President Haley pardons Trump, even if state charges don’t go away. The latter involve little or no incarceration.
He would be confined to a Trump-owned property. And the value of his properties would decline because of becoming a powerless international outlaw.
Even if the leadership of said principality told him he was safe there, that could change tomorrow. These countries aren’t guaranteed to be stable.
Also, and while their health care is AFAIK reasonably good, he’d have to worry about how good it really is. When rich people in the UAE get very sick, how often do they go for treatment abroad? Perhaps rarely, but not having the option would be uncomfortable.
I had not thought about North Korea. Could be the winner under certain circumstances. A lot of this depends on Trump’s ability to dodge subsequent freezes on his accounts as well as financial sanctions on North Korea and other rogue nations.
I don’t have the stats, but I’ve read that it’s extremely rare for white collar types to fail to show up on their prison entry date.
And all the U.S. has to do is mention Trump’s presence during a discussion of the timing of our next arms sale, and Trump’s in big trouble.
As for North Korea, this is silly. People want to get out, not in. Heath care is inferior. No McDonald’s. It would be hard for friends and family to visit. And Melania would veto it. The country is a prison, and a federal prison camp is better.
Even if a country doesn’t have an extradition treaty with the US, that doesn’t make a US fugitive immune from extradition. The fugitive has no right to stay there, other than what the government of the foreign country gives him. If it’s to the advantage of the foreign government to bundle the fugitive on a plane to the US, that’s what happens.
Extradition treaties create due process rights for the fugitive. If the fugitive is in a country that has no extradition treaty with the US, then there are no due process rights to rely on, other than what’s in that country’s legal system.
The countries being tossed around in this discussion are not exemplars of countries with due process.
Conversely, just because a country does have an extradition treaty with the US doesn’t mean that the fugitive will be extradited. Generally, countries are not obligated to extradite if the act for which the fugitive is being sought is not considered a crime in that country, if the country determines that it is strictly a political offense, or if the fugitive could face the death penalty, torture, or degrading and inhumane punishment.
That’s the problem with a lot of countries, particularly in the Middle East. They were great friends with president Trump, because he was president Trump. If he’s now fleeing the long arm of the law, what could he offer them that would be worth bringing down the wrath of the US on them?
Now, North Korea, that might work, since they’re already at odds with the US, and really, most of the rest of the world. They could then spend a few years sweating him for anything useful he might remember (probably not much, to be honest), and selling that info to anyone who will pay.
I think a lot of it depends on what sort of resources the fugitive has access to. Trump could reside at the Burj Khalifa, meet with Russian and Chinese officials, reference his suitcase of secrets, and arrange quid pro quo. He doesn’t have to live inside the borders of America’s enemies, only trade with them.
To be honest though, any documents would be taken from Trump at the border. I would guess that he lacks the sophistication to possess an encrypted flash drive, but it’s hard to be sure.
Perhaps, but the more outlandish options are the most fun to think about. Could a cash poor Pacific Island appeal to Trump? It depends upon his alternatives. But is there an autocracy that’s nimble enough to quickly set itself up as a haven for washed up leaders no longer welcome in their home country? Unfortunately for this scenario, that region of the world is depressingly susceptible to parliamentary democracy.
When asked what is one conspiracy theory I believe that I have no evidence whatsoever for my favorite is Ken Lay faked his own death to avoid going to jail (actually, my new favorite is Jeffrey Epstein didn’t kill himself).
Russia’s been mentioned, but I’m surprised it’s not being considered as more of a no-brainer. With all that trump did to serve Putin’s bidding while in office, I imagine a grateful Putin would set trump up with a nice dacha. he could call it море к озеру два (that’s ‘Mar-a-Lago II’ in Russian).
Off all the news articles that could have easily been ‘The Onion’ parodies while he was in office, I always though that one was one of the more spot-on ones.
Agree with your surprise. IMO Russia is the hands-down favorite.
At this rarified level of political power / ignominy and wealth, treaties, due process, and extradition simply don’t matter. Each government will do what works for their interests and will find enough weasel words to jink around any uncomfortable matters of due process or treaty they may have signed.
What is the one country with a government compatible with happily harboring Trump that the US has essentially zero ability to influence short of WWIII? Russia.
I don’t think that is 100% true. IIRC if a foreign national in Brazil marries a Brazilian they cannot be extradited. I also wonder if some countries where you can pay for citizenship have laws that citizens cannot be extradited.
I can see the argument that Russia is the favorite for fleeing, but I don’t think his reception will be quite so cozy as others speculate.
What is the value Trump brings to Putin? He no longer has any official power, or access to intel. Anything he does manage to remember will be out of date, and his accuracy of recall will be questionable, at best (Man, woman, etc.)
His biggest role would be to keep stirring the pot of US politics, but even there, he’s so unreliable, Putin would be disinclined to just let him go about his business.
I figure he’ll be welcomed with great fanfare, and then almost immediately disappear from public view. He’ll be under de facto home arrest, and any “public appearances” will be so heavily scripted and edited that we’ll be here having legitimate arguments about if they’re all AI generated or not.
I agree Russia. But an honorable mention for Saudi Arabia. They already have Kushner on the payroll, and Trump could still influence things from afar, so he could have some utility for the Saudi’s business interests. When he eventually becomes useless to them, it’s a simple matter to schedule a dismemberment and suitcase stuffing. Besides, with all the fake gold plating and fake crytals and fake opulence, he’d fit right in as the faux-King.
