You’re right. Trump’s a malignant tumor and we’re going to be dealing with MAGAts or their sucessors for quite a while to come. This doesn’t end with Trump.
Not that I recall.
Yes. It’s linked in the “Is Trump confused?” thread. Dr. John Gartner is of the opinion that the Trump we see today is the best Trump we’re going to get and as time marches on, Trump is heading towards (or indeed already on his way over) a cognitive cliff.
I don’t expect Trump to still be around in 2028, especially if he loses and his other trials end up moving forward. But what I do expect is that he will claim the election was stolen again and that his followers will take this at face value. This won’t do him much good in court but he will probably still try some variations of the “I’m the real President, you can’t do this to me!” defense which will be duly shut down by at least two out of three trial judges. He’s also going to immediately declare himself the leading candidate for the Republican nomination in 2028 since that makes every trial “political interference”. And since Biden stole the election twice, Trump will also declare that he should be President for life.
The 2027 Republican convention will feature a puppy-shooting booth. Most pups shot in the face will win you the VP slot!
Well, they’ll start with puppies…
Assuming (1) Trump is alive in 2028, and (2) able to convince a number of (R) voters he’s not senile, I absolutely see him running again in 2028. Of course, that’s two big assumptions (and no, I don’t expect him to be in jail either, house arrest at most).
But, he may be too damn tired and busy to want to run again for Pres.
So, I see three main scenarios, given the assumptions above:
- Runs for President, because it’s the only way he can get more money to shore up his businesses, which will in NY at least, be operating under extreme scrutiny for the foreseeable future.
- Runs for President as a likely spoiler candidate, with the spoken (or un) assumption that for sufficient promises (pardons, money, influence) he’ll drop out in favor of XYZ candidate. [ I rate this the most likely ]
- Somewhat similar to 2, Trump is induced via any of the above to graciously accept a VP position - that way he gets to golf as much as he wants, make money, peddle influence, and occasionally (if the Senate remains close) wield a bit of real power. However, given his hatred of playing second fiddle to anyone or anything, this is dead last in my list of likelyhood.
Again, as pointed out in this thread, and many others, Trump is going to have diehard fans for as long as he lives and after, much like an horrible, half-dead and drugged up Elvis. Sure, the (R) team WON’T want him to run again if he loses in 2024, but they’ll also know that he can probably convince, oh, say, at least 5-10% of their voting base to NOT turn up if they snub him.
Given current margins, that’s probably enough for them to lose several otherwise winnable elections. So they’ll have to keep him happy enough to not shit all over them. Which means letting him run, or buying him off.
The grim reaper has a much much greater chance of stopping Trump from running in 2028 than the GOP growing a spine.
If he’s alive, capable of standing and speaking a sentence, he’ll be the nom*. But the changes of all those things being true are not huge
*- if the election is close in 2024. If it’s a Biden landslide that brings down the other Republicans on the ticket then get ready for some positively Stalinesque rewriting of history. “Trump? Who’s that? He sounds terrible. We never had anyone Ike that in the GOP. Sounds like a mainstream media scare story”
This. Even if it’s a close Biden win that brings down the other Pubs and gives the Dems control of both Houses (like 2020), I think that he’d be finished.
Maaaaybe, but that’s probably up there with “will trump be alive in 2028” and “will Trump’s probably senility still be deniable in 2028” provisos.
Right now, TBH, abortion, if anything, is what is really dragging voters leftward (IMHO of course), and while Trump’s SCOTUS picks figure significantly in that, it’s an issue he more-or-less successfully dodges. Otherwise, Trump’s greatest hits (American exceptionalism, anti-immigrant, anti-people of color, anti-“world government”, make other people pay to make us great, Christian Nationalism, etc) still play well with a depressingly large portion of the electorate.
As an old Deadhead and a Phish fan, this is grossly inaccurate but I don’t want to start a hijack.
FDR was nominated 4 times in a row and won all 4. Jefferson, Jackson, and Nixon were nominated 3 times and won twice. I wasn’t sure if anyone else other than Bryan had been nominated 3 times until I found List of unsuccessful major party candidates for President of the United States - Wikipedia. So yes, so far Jefferson, Jackson, FDR, Nixon, and Bryan are the only 3 or more time presidential candidates.
FDR was nominated 4 times in a row and won all 4. Jefferson, Jackson, Cleveland and Nixon were nominated 3 times and won twice. I wasn’t sure if anyone else other than Bryan had been nominated 3 times until I found List of unsuccessful major party candidates for President of the United States - Wikipedia. So yes, so far Jefferson, Jackson, Cleveland, FDR, Nixon, and Bryan are the only 3 or more time presidential candidates. Nixon’s were not consecutive but the others were.
If Trump is nominated (likely) and wins (God help us) he’ll join Grover Cleveland as the only individuals to serve non-consecutive presidential terms.