Imagine a world where Trump wakes up tomorrow and does something the right way for once. In this world, he wakes up and says “for the benefit of the party and the country, I am withdrawing my nomination so that my legal battles aren’t the focus of attention.” I know this has a less than zero percent chance of happening, but don’t fight the hypothetical.
What do you think would happen next? Who would rise to the top on the republican side? Does it give the republicans a better chance of winning the election? Would Trump’s subsequent legal battles have any bearing on the election? Assuming the republican loses (and Trump isn’t in jail), would Trump be front and center in 2028?
It would not be the end of our troubles. A good portion of our country is spellbound by this moron. They’d still obey his commands, and he could have more power over the party as a non-candidate. Until the Republicans move on from the spell, we still may be stuck with Trump wannabes like DeSantis. Even with the man out of the race, we are still stuck with Trumpism for a while longer, at least until the GOP learns they can’t win on it.
I’d say in the unlikely event that happens, it will be a deal between him and one of the other GOP candidates, whereby Trump withdraws and backs one of the GOP contenders, in exchange for a pardon if they win in 2024 (a completely logical move by Trump, but I don’t see his narcissism letting him choose it however much it might be the best chance of not dying in prison).
I’d say a half competent GOP candidate officially endorsed by Trump has a better chance of winning than Trump himself. At least a better chance than Trump while he’s in the process of being convicted sent to prison for multiple felonies, whatever everyone is saying now, that makes him much less likely to win an election (I mean its absolutely insane that the chance is not 0%, given the crimes he’s been charged with, but it is still going to seriously reduce his chances of winning).
The legal battles are still a huge deal regardless of who is running, they are going to be a bigger deal than the election campaign itself, and the GOP candidates will be constantly upstaged and quizzed about them even if Trump is not running.
Regardless of his current incarceration status I’m not convinced Trump will be in a physically or mentally* fit state to run in 2028. He’ll be three years older than Biden is now, and is not in as good shape.
I mean he wasn’t in a fit state to run mentally in 2016 or 1996 for that matter, but he could at least string a sentence together.
There would be a huge outcry from his die-hard fans to bring him back into the race. In the real world (where the OP’s theoretical couldn’t happen in a million years) he would allow himself (reluctantly, with tears in his eyes) to restart his campaign. In the universe where he’s not running under any circumstances, see below.
No idea. I’m not closely following the other candidates, but it would be shootout among them. Although DeSantis seems to be next on the list, he appears to be well on the way to self-destructing, and if that happens, Christie would probably be next up. But the polling difference between him and the next 20 nobodies is so small as to make any prediction this far out a complete crapshoot. ISTM that Christie would be less horrible than most of the rest of the clown car.
A big question would be who, if anyone, Trump would endorse in this situation. That person might have a slight leg up.
On the contrary. It would completely fracture the Republican vote, an outcome devoutly to be hoped for. I strongly suspect that a very large fraction of the 20-25% of Americans who are serious Trumpists would either write-in for Trump or not vote at all, with obviously devastating effects on the R candidate’s chances. Even with a Trump endorsement, I think a good number of his fans would be disinclined to vote.
They might, if the Democrats were smart and ruthlessly used them to smear all Rs by association in a consistent and well-crafted ad campaign. Unfortunately, Dems have rarely shown themselves capable of being that disciplined.
Sure. But who do you think he would be more likely to endorse? What other candidates might have a chance without Trump in the picture?
Personally, I think DeSantis has burned too many bridges. I think Trump would be most likely to pick some air head crony that he could try to manipulate.
Then I think what happens is the same thing that’s going to happen if Trump gets knocked out of the race by some other means.
Republicans will advance a young, dynamic, faux-moderate Republican who will steal away the people who think Biden is “too old.” I offer the names of Glenn Younkin and Brian Kemp. It won’t be anyone who’s currently in the field.
Like you said, the highest bidder. Logic and policy are just distractions here. He would endorse Porky Pig if Porky offered him the most.
I think such an unlikely scenario would do the Republicans good, not harm. Someone like Glen Youngkin would seem like a fresh face and a new start for them.
In this scenario, Ted Cruz drops his bowl of Wheaties and knocks over his child in his rush to get to the phone and call into Fox and Friends to declare his candidacy.
First, I think enough of his base would still try to write-in his name on the ballot to screw over any replacement GOP candidate.
But more importantly, paying all his legal fees now becomes more difficult to finance without a candidacy to use as a grift. He would have to start selling properties to pay his lawyers, and any co-conspirators who are depending on his PAC to pay their legal bills - I can just say antacids are on aisle 5.
…then he would definitely be on the top of the list. Remember, this is the Republican primary voters we’re talking about, here. To them, self-destructing is an asset, not a liability.
Yeah, if Trump drops out and doesn’t immediately endorse a proxy candidate, what we get is the shitty Hollywood reboot of the 2016 Republican Clown Car. Half of them will try to be Trump 2.0 to gain support from his base, and the other half will be constantly one-uping each other about how Not Trump they are, while also constantly quoting all the times every other Not Trumper said something publicly in support of Trump.
God willing, it’s enough of a shit show that even Republican voters start to decide to just drop out of public engagement entirely.
Trump is so whimsical and impulsive that he could endorse someone and, if they weren’t sufficiently and relentlessly toadying enough after that, he’d withdraw his endorsement and then go for someone else. I think he’d relish the role of kingmaker, making other candidates jump through the hoops just as he did in deciding who to endorse in, say, the U.S. Senate race here last year: Trump’s secret sit-down with Ohio candidates turns into ‘Hunger Games’ - POLITICO).