Let us say Trump contracts Sane Cow Disease and drops out. Who do you think will throw their chapeau back in the Republican squared circle?
Nikky Haley is still game.
It has to be Haley. She had actual supporters who actually wanted her to win, right up until she threw in the towel.
DeSantis was losing supporters as time went on, as even his supporters decided they didn’t actually like him.
I will say Vivek.
Romney
kinda late to get on a ballot I suppose.
Seriously, DeSantis. I know he has the charisma of a T800 that’s had 1/4 of it’s flesh covering ripped away, but he’s going to get the racist, white male votes which will probably give him the edge over Haley, who while reprehensible, is far from enough for the rabid core that is MAGA, while being more than acceptable to the majority of the remaining Republican party, EVEN if they wish he’d be less of a choad.
I’m not saying he’d win the resulting election, because being a charisma-less douche is going to be a bigger handicap when you can’t create insane passion in your base, but I wouldn’t rule out a win just on the power of the FOX/OAN propaganda machine especially if they create a plausible “passing the torch scenario” for Trump’s final request.
His replacement would be decided at a GOP convention consisting of Trump delegates. So it all depends on who these delegates really are.
My uninformed guess is that they are actual Trump supporters. If so, and if Trumps drops out after selecting a veep nominee — that person. But if Trump drops out earlier — DeSantis.
If the bulk of Trump delegates are actually old-time GOP insiders — Haley.
She was also the only other republican to win a primary. Granted, it was one but that is one more than anyone else other than Trump. I kinda think that was a goal of hers. Get one win (at least) and be heir apparent.
Haley has no chance of receiving the Republican nomination. Zip. Zero. Nada.
She has alienated the 2,400 Trump delegates who will decide who the nominee is at the convention. These delegates will overwhelmingly be Trump faithful selected at regional and state party conventions. Even the more “establishment” among them will not support Haley, because they would be turned on by the hard core Trumpists.
DeSantis would obviously try to revive his campaign, and probably some others like Scott and Vivek. But the convention does not have to choose someone who was previously running in the primaries, so I think you’d likely see Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley and others make a play.
My prediction is that the nominee would be Texas Governor Greg Abbott.
I don’t know how true this still is after DJT’s hostile takeover of the GOP, but:
Let’s say it is true. I think long time local GOP leaders read just enough history to have the idea that old-fashioned many-ballot conventions harm the eventual nominee. So they would go with whomever Trump wants for fear that anything else will require a long process. And if Trump has already chosen a veep, that will be his preference.
And if he is incapacitated — say, a bad stroke, which I dont’t wish on anyone — elevating his veep choice would still be the easiest path.
And what if Trump delegates are instead, or additionally, fanatical Trumpers? Then they definitely will defer to Trump’s judgment.
So we are back to the veep thread. My guess is Stefanik.
Trump is never likely to pick a strong VP. Trump simply cannot stomach being overshadowed by anyone. He wants a lackey. A bootlicker.
Which would make for a really shitty president. Would his mob truly choose that?
Each state party has its own rules for how they choose delegates to the convention. Very generally, a certain number will be who you would expect – i.e. any Republican state and federal officeholders, and senior state party officials. But the majority are chosen through convenings either at the state or Congressional district level of party activists to choose who they will send. It’s these grassroots party supporters who are going to be your strongest MAGA heads. And they’re the least likely to be controlled by what national Republican party figures are going to want.
This is part of why I think Abbott would be well positioned if Trump were to drop out (although I agree that if he were to endorse someone or have already announced a VP, the convention would probably go with that person). Texas has the second largest delegation to the RNC, just shy of California. Abbott has done a lot to win favor with the Texas GOP grassroots through his border shenanigans and other culture wars stunts. That gives him a stronger base than anyone else at the convention. Florida gives DeSantis a strong base too, but he has a whiff of loser on him after the primaries and has alienated some of his allies.
Nitpick: To the best of my knowledge, Paxton is disqualified from this thread per the OP.
The operative phrase being “back in”. Unless I missed something, he hasn’t run for the position at any point to date. Of course, that’s not a serious objection, a nitpick as I said. But my understanding is that by various parties “suspending” their efforts, they did have the option to return.
But lots of internal GOP rules would likely have to be modified in the scenario of the OP, the eight states rule being the first. So I suspect they might back up and re-run an abbreviated new primary, which, if I was Haley (
) I’d object too, rightly pointing out that they were the only one to win any states of the regular primary not counting the party that had dropped out, and therefor was the only possible legitimate candidate.
I’d love to see the lawsuits and face-eating that resulted.
Nitpick: Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton are, technically, separate people. 
Wasn’t there a thing where Trump refused to be sedated for a medical procedure because this would have meant Mike Pence would have been President for about 15 minutes or so?
You’re right, I’m wrong, but when the evils share a location and attitude (and enabling!), they just blend into a great amorphous shoggoth of Texas evil. You can barely blame me for the mental overlap of the BLEEEEEEEEP (this post has been self edited to abide by the spirit of P&E and not the Pit).
It seems so:
Full Title: Trump skipped anesthesia for a previously unreported procedure at Walter Reed to avoid giving Pence temporary power, according to new book
And, of course, Trump was ok with having his VP murdered (literally):
Full Title: ‘He thinks Mike deserves it’: Trump said rioters were right to call for vice-president’s death
Depending on the timing and circumstances of Trump’s exit (say, he has a stroke in the next couple of weeks and is alive but fully incapacitated), I expect there’s a pretty good chance Donald Trump Jr jumps in and tries to make a play for the base to pivot to him.
I don’t expect him to succeed, mind you. He’ll crash and fail spectacularly. But he’ll try.
I wonder how many would still vote for Trump in that state? I’d bet it is more than we’d imagine.
Paul Ryan, with Mittens as HIS running mate this time. 