A speculation thread that could potentially be a little lighter than most.
As has been observed many times, Trump and Musk are very similar in many ways. They are both rich, powerful, arrogant, and self-centered, with huge yet easily wounded egos, no moderating influences, and a tendency to hold grudges. While such people can and do cooperate, usually such relationships are more fragile than normal.
If the current relationship between them does sour, what do you think will be the precipitating cause? What do you think would happen as a result?
I would predict that Trump will use (or try to use) Musk as a human shield to protect himself from impeachment; when (or maybe if) the courts do actually try to stop the dismantlement of some arm of government; allow Musk to lead the battle, then when it gets hot, retreat from him and leave him to die.
He doesn’t have friends, or allies or partners; he has people whose face it has simply not yet been convenient for him to consume. The weird thing is that there seems to be a steady stream of fresh meat, every one thinking it will be different for them.
All true and possible, but how does Musk then respond? Is he a true believer who will quietly withdraw and continue to support the guy who abandoned him?That’s the part that interests me.
He’ll be beset by accusations and inquiries and trials, possibly spearheaded or at least cheered on by whomever is the next person in line who thinks they can be Trump’s Real Bestie, but is in fact just setting themselves up to be the next of his human shields.
Whether or not the action against Musk will ever conclude, I wouldn’t try to predict, but the process will be expensive and time-consuming and damaging for him, meanwhile Trump’s supporters get to apportion blame for all of the ills (up to a point) to Musk, and Trump is actually the good guy who is going to make things better.
Then in a year or so, the whole thing repeats - whoever it was that was trying to wriggle into Trump’s pocket while Musk was falling from grace, will be the one who shoulders the blame for the shit that happens in that second phase, and another wannabe steps up to try to be Trump’s right hand.
I expect it to happen fairly soon, as soon as it registers with Trump that his approval rating is dropping precipitously (already happening, even though it’s not yet underwater), and that Musk is particularly unpopular. Trump doesn’t care about law, ethics, or good government, but he does care about being liked, and if he perceives Musk as dragging his own popularity down, Musk is going right under the bus.
(Which makes me feel like it might be a long-term mistake for Democrats to focus quite so much on Musk in their messaging, but in the short term it’s the message that is resonating, and if it does get Musk and his gang of barely legal neo-fascists to fall out of favor, I suppoze it’s a good thing in itself.)
I feel reasonably sure that the public part of what we see regarding the DOGE digging – pulling the plug on federal funding – is serving partly as a distraction for Musk doing the deeper work of infiltrating systems, collecting kompromat that he can use as other politicians. He’s probably already pulled troves of data demonstrating how Trump is lining his pockets for the public good, and how other Republicans are in on it (purging his own misdeeds in the process).
Of course a certain amount of corruption tolerance is baked-in here – most of MAGA will rationalize anything. However there’s also a competing cult at work here, which is Musk’s, who will help amplify, emphasize, and launder his messaging.
So I don’t see them destroying each other in an orgy of mutual retribution. Wealthy and powerful men aren’t always geniuses, but they’re very good at recognizing existential threats, and very good at keeping focus on the real goal, which is to preserve their status and keep the underclasses oppressed.
So yes, there will be some big conflicts, but I doubt we’ll see much of that play out in public. They’ll go to their graves hating each other, but neither one will break the ceasefire.
Trump violating the Hatch Act, reporting and divesting financial conflicts of interest (18 U.S.C. § 208), a wide array of requirements for handling classified information, et cetera, are all out in the open for everyone to see. I don’t know what kind of “kompromat” of that nature Elon could dig up which is worse than what we’ve already seen. Musk is for sure collecting information albeit not so much for blackmail per se as to gain advantage and destroy competitors and regulators.
Right now Trump is using Musk as an unaccountable hatchet man who (he thinks) will be his fall guy once he thinks he doesn’t need him, and Musk is using Trump as a stooge that gives him access to collect information and burn down every agency he thinks has wronged him or that he just finds offensive. That relationship will collapse when one of them thinks they don’t need the other.
I think they will have a falling out over something incredibly petty and stupid, something only a couple of ego-maniacal narcissists could argue about. Trump will say something that is just plain wrong, Musk will correct him with a “well, actually” and Trump will double down on whatever stupid thing he said while telling Musk to know his place. The argument will escalate quickly and stupidly (probably lots of accusations back and forth about who is a pedophile) but since Trump can ultimately have Musk hauled away by the Secret Service, Trump wins.
My personal theory on the kompromat is that Trump willingly engaged in sexual activity with not one but two Russian teenagers who specifically, explicitly told him their ages (which are not equal to or greater than 18). Trump does his thing, embedded video and audio devices in the room capture every moment of it and then we cut to footage of both girls tearfully saying they only let Trump do those things to them because they were too young and too scared to say no to him. I don’t know what the Russian penalty for this is but I assume it is draconian.
(disclaimer: no actual Russian teenagers were harmed in the production of this kompromat, the “young ladies” in question are SVR agents who are good at pretending.)
That would rate no more than a ‘Disappointed’ by Susan Collins and a collective yawn by the GOP leadership. There is almost no chance that the House would vote for impeachment, and even if they did the Senate would fail to convict. Trump’s ardent supporters would actually celebrate him for his triumph of ephebophilia.
I think they can’t afford falling out (prisoner’s dilemma), especially Musk can’t, as he WILL need Trumps presidential pardon in 2029 (assuming democracy still works then in the USA) or he WILL have to leave the states.
That might have worked 15 years ago … today not so much
[Trump voice]
*Hey me porking russian teenagers is just a deep fake, everybody knows This … and that is nothing compared to what Hussein Obama did in Biden’s basement.
… btw. Rare earth was found in Gambia - so we are thinking about going in There.
Elon is infinitely more vulnerable to Trump than Trump is to Elon. But they’re both quite mad IMHO, because they’re both rich and powerful enough that no one successfully gainsays them (in their own worlds, and largely IRL).
The thing is, when Musk becomes a liability from Trump’s POV, he’ll be thrown under the bus hard. He’ll be scapegoated, and if he’s smart, he’ll bend over and take it, and ask “can I have some more sir?”. If Elon’s ego gets in the way, and tries to fight back, then all of a sudden he’ll lose all government contracts, those rumors regarding his visa manipulation will be investigated hard, safety complaints about Tesla will be suddenly investigated, and of course, SpaceX will be nationalized in the name of need. Xitter likely as well, or taken as a punitive measure especially if it’s the mechanism that Elon uses to fight back.
So, Elon’s wealth will be crippled, he’ll likely be jailed, or flat out kicked out of the nation. He’s very powerful because of his wealth and large soapbox in a nation theoretically subject to the rule of law, true. But in one where the law is a figleaf and justification, he’s vulnerable in ways he may have never have realized consciously.
This is something the Russian oligarchs have all figured out. Get out of line, and all the money in the world won’t prevent Putin from having someone push you out a window.
We are living in such absurd, surreal times that if anything breaks them up, it will be something that we can’t even imagine. I mean, who saw the Riviera of the Middle East coming? Or a gaggle of teen gamers running amok in Federal agencies? Or…well, you know. We are all living it. So I wouldn’t even try to speculate except to say that if such a fallout occurs, it will be unprecedented. (I grew to hate that word in the first term, I hate it even more now.)
