Trying to pedant me? Don’t think you can out-pedant me, sonny. You asked “can,” not “will,” and my answer satisfied :).
If we’re not going to nitpick, I think my answer was pretty clear.
Less than one quarter is way too early to say much but what I will be very curious to see is what also happens to legal immigration and emigration rates and applications of the best and the brightest from around the world.
In any case for those actually interested here is data on the longer term trends in Mexican border apprehension rates. The trend since 2000 has been plummeting. 2015 hit lows not seen in nearly 50 years. Lowest since 1969. 2016, for whatever reason, saw a blip back up. Several likely reasons for the long term trend -
Interestingly GW Bush did not get a lot of credit for the dramatic drop that occurred during his watch and Obama did not get credit for the dramatic drops that occurred during his.
That said I do suspect that America is less attractive of a destination to all migrants, legal and highly educated inclusive, now than it has been. Specific to Mexico the jump in the value of the peso relative to the dollar since Trump’s election may be a factor.
That might be true in general but the Peso point is the wrong way around. It’s dropped noticeably in value since Trump was elected, ie the number of Peso’s per dollar has jumped, and all else equal that would make it more attractive to migrate from Mexico to the US. A given number of $ wages earned or remittances of those wages back to Mexico is worth more Peso’s.
But again the factors that cause people to migrate are very complicated, and measuring it is very difficult. However it seems shorter term fluctuations are in indeed influenced by perceptions of change in US policy. The wave of unaccompanied minors a few years back seemed pretty credibly tied to albeit dubious information circulating in Central America that the US was taking a new more lenient policy. Now it wouldn’t be surprising if a perception of harsher US policy was affecting some people’s decisions, or they were taking a ‘wait and see’ attitude.
So as usual without politically driven insistence that every effect of Trump is negative* or anything positive couldn’t be due to him, I think one would have to say it’s not clear, but certainly plausible that a declaration the US is going to crack down would deter some migrants. A weaker Peso is certainly not the answer anyway.
*though there’s some ambiguity on this issue of what’s positive or negative. Some on the left believe and are willing to admit they see the illegal immigration ‘problem’ as simply one of laws restricting migration when it shouldn’t be restricted, or much less so than it is. Others while still left leaning or at least Democrats don’t agree with that. But I see an honesty issue with some in the media and elected Democrats whose general approach suggests they see the problem mainly as one of much too much immigration restriction, but aren’t willing to come out and say it openly, because that’s a very unpopular belief among most of the large non-ideological or ‘moderate’ part of the public, besides among conservatives and right wing populists.
As others said, I guess we don’t need a wall after all.
Q: Isn’t the approval rating of the president down 67% under Trump???
It’s dropped since January but it was climbing since November last year. It is still higher than it was this time last year.
So you’re right the Peso did drop since Trump’s election but there was still a stronger Peso for his first three months.
Let’s not overthink this. Maybe it’s just a direct result of people not wanting to live in a country where Donald Trump is President.
Very hard to tell in first post the person was thinking of it the right way around at all. In your post it’s a mix. I take from second paragraph you have it basically the right way, but you still confusingly and incorrectly refer to the move since January as ‘drop’. Even if a currency is customary expressed in so called ‘European terms’ (units of the foreign currency per $) as MXN usually is, it’s incorrect to say the Peso going from 22 to 19 (around) in 2017 so far is ‘dropping’. Rising/dropping is in terms of USD value by convention no matter the style of quotation. However the MXN’s value is still not up since Trump was elected and moreover has dropped significantly over the last 5 yrs. USD has strengthened against most currencies last 5 yrs, but by itself it’s a general trend of making migration to the US more attractive, again all else equal, just as far as currency.
Again separated from a political imperative to say everything about Trump is negative and anything positive has nothing to do with him, the value of the Peso is simply not an explanation for a declining trend in immigration from Mexico. The trend have been toward currency making migration more attractive for quite awhile, and no trend the other way net since Trump was elected.
Which also came up in same poster’s attempt on another thread to ‘demonstrate’ that the stock market rally has nothing to do with Trump when the fairly clear Occam’s Razor answer is that he has been a positive for the market so far, like it or not, whether it lasts or not, whether what’s good for stocks is good for everyone or not. It’s not as true if you pick the inauguration date, but that’s not how markets, or the feelings of migrants for that matter, work. They react to changes in known facts, which the inauguration wasn’t, the election result was. And I think I made clear in this case my hypothesis is change in migrant expectations of US policy, not necessarily actual changes in enforcement. Again the Obama admin didn’t really announce or implement a significant change in policy wrt unaccompanied migrant minors, but families of the children apparently thought so and that had a noticeable effect. So January is not a particularly relevant date from POV of outlook of migrants as opposed to actual enforcement (which has nothing to do with currency). From Trump’s election to now the MXN has only dug itself mostly out of a big short term hole along a multi-year trend of weakening v the USD thus making it more lucrative in Peso’s to earn $'s by illegal labor in the US.
All I was saying is that the Peso was stronger vs the Dollar in Jan-Mar 2017 than in Jan-Mar 2016. I am not trying to paint Trump in any light at all.
So now I’m again doubting if you have it right way around. It’s gone from 20.7 at the beginning of this year to around 18.2 end of March. In 2106 it was around 17.2 both that the beginning of the year and end of March. That’s weaker in 2017. Weaker/stronger up/down is in terms of USD value no matter the convention of quotation (foreign per US, or US per foreign). IOW a Peso went from being worth .048 this Jan to .0549 this March v around $.058 at both beginning of year 2016 and end of March. The Peso has gotten weaker consistently over the last 5 yrs, much weaker after Trump was elected, now climbed back more or less onto the previous weakening trend.
Or do you mean the direction was toward ‘stronger’ early this year while more directionless earlier last year? That’s true, but that’s not ‘the Peso was stronger’. It’s hard to communicate when people aren’t using standard terms.
Yes, illegal immigration is down. I have yet to meet one USA citizen for Illegal immigration.
Consumer confidence at a high mark, jobs reports and employment much better, and the stock market, of course, went up as well. More factories are either coming back or staying in the USA, a good thing.
Up next is a lower tax rate, which will stimulate the economy. The key is the 5 to 7 largest tech companies, who by themselves would constitute the 6-8th largest GDP in the world to start bringing jobs back here. That would be a true game changer.
No, you’re right. I had it upside down.
It never has before, why would it now?
When you give billionaires tax cuts, it boosts the mega-yacht industry.
Hi, I’m TimeWinder, a USA citizen. Until we have a rational legal immigration policy–which won’t happen in my lifetime–I’m for illegal immigration. And so are a lot of others.
‘As Mexico continues its turn away from the US and US companies by seeking new trade deals and other integrated business opportunities with other nations, and as the perception and reality of foreigners being welcome in the US darkens, more and more people, whether legally or illegally are not looking to come to the US, once seen as a beacon of hope and a new life, and instead are looking at other options. Where will this trend end for the US and for the region? Only time will tell, but a darker and less hopeful picture is emerging, one where the US isn’t looked too in the same light as it has been in the past…’
The media probably isn’t good enough at statistics to draw the stupidly obvious conclusion that if border guards are not at the border, they’re not going to arrest as many people at the border. That may be a “duhhhhh” moment for anyone with a room temperature IQ, but headlines stories rarely go into such detail.
The numbers are not of apprehensions of illegals at the Mexican border but of apprehensions of Mexican illegals. As you say the number of Mexican illegals is very low, but most of the illegals entering through Mexico are not Mexican but are Central and South American.
Oh I doubt that. I’m pretty sure you can leave anytime you like.