A Chicago Tribune poll released today has Quinn up a surprising 48% to 37% (3.5% MoE, 95% confidence). That’s a far more favorable poll than Quinn’s been seeing so I’m not sure how seriously to take it but the basic take away s kind of like the 2012 presidential election: People view Rauner as better for handling state finances in general but see him as out of touch with their needs, in the pocket of special interests and he has a dismal 12% support from Chicago voters. Here’s the (subscriber only) story.
Wow. Surprising is right.
The polling is pretty sparse but the next most recent poll (with a bigger n) had Rauner up by 4.
I am particularly surprised by the Trib’s finding that it is following party ID so closely. Generally for state-wide offices Illinoisians have paid less attention to that despite voting one way or the other for national issues.
I think a fair number of Illinoisians are resigned to the fact that Madigan is in the power seat no matter who is the governor spot. They accept the fact that as Quinn did not cause the messes and that no one else in the governor spot could/will do much better. Quinn is typically viewed as a nice enough guy and honest … just not all that smart or effective. Given that no one really believes either being there will matter much those of a libertarian bent are more likely punch Libertarian (on the ballot), not caring that they are wasting their vote. Making a statement is more important. On the liberal side the Green Party candidate usually picks up a few (last time about 3%) but this year they had too few signatures to be on the ballot.
Rauner may be being caught in a catch-22 right now and has to decide which way to weave. To win he needs the turn-out from a rural conservative base who have some basic right-wing views on gay and choice rights more than being of the libertarian or even fiscal conservative mindset. But he is also aware of the importance of the White suburban female voter so is advertising his moderate positions on choice and gay rights. Convincing the Right to come out for him while trying to convince socially moderate suburban women that he is a social moderate is apparently tough. Even when running against a very weak Democratic candidate.
For what it’s worth, Rasmussen released a poll showing Quinn up by two points (44-42).
Another poll showing Quinn four points ahead (We Ask America). As the Tribune poll noted, Quinn has a massive lead in Chicago. Also, interestingly, Quinn picks up more Republican voter support than Rauner picks up Democratic support (13%/11% respectively).
Anyway, a month to go an all that but it looks as though Quinn may have turned this one around.
I would agree it looks like the momentum has shifted in his direction but I’m not ready to pop any champagne corks just yet.
Quinn has really been bland and ineffectual during his time in office so he should be easy to beat. However, the more the electorate finds out about Rauner the less attractive he appears. Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t, I guess.
I suspect the result on election day will be very close but if Quinn is reelected this will be a huge fail for the Illinois GOP.
Sure, it’s a month out yet etc etc but no matter how you slice it, +4 is a hell of a lot better position than -7.
Quinn has been a pretty ineffectual governor and he should have really lost last cycle as well. That he didn’t is entirely because of the Tea Party style candidate the GOP ran against him. If Quinn wins re-election again, it’ll be because of Rauner.
In IllinoiSpeak, that means “not imprisoned.”
Doesn’t matter who the governor is. Madigan runs the state and he’s squeezing it for every nickle he can. I’d give my left nut (okay, left pinky finger) to see that guy get 20 years (hard time) in the slammer.