Illinois Governor's Race

Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn faces Republican challenger Bruce Rauner. Thus far, every poll taken this years shows Rauner winning. The latest shows Rauner up by 14 percentage points.

At first glance a Republican victory would have to seem unlikely. Illinois is one of the most reliably Democratic states by any measure, routinely picking Dems by large margins for President, Congress, and at state and local levels. Four years ago they put a Democrat back in the state house even after Rod Blagojevich went to jail in for an act of corruption that was stunning even by modern standards. Illinois is also the home state of a certain Barack Obama. Nonetheless, here we are with election day three months away and a Republican leading in the polls.

To see why, we might perhaps take a peek at how the Illinois economy has fared under the Democrats. Between 2008 and 2012, the state’s economy posted total economic growth of just 2% in four years. Quinn can brag about giving his state one of the nation’s highest unemployment rates, high economic inequality, a lousy climate for business, the worst credit rating of any state in the country, high income taxes, high corporate taxes, and high taxes of all kinds. Then there’s the fact that the city of Chicago is going bankrupt, with the entire state soon to follow. And let’s not forget lousy job growth and the fact that people are fleeing the state in droves.

Combined with all this is the fact that it need not be happening. Other midwestern states–Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan–have elected Republican governors and cruised to better economic performance. Indiana is a particularly important competitor since it shares such a long border with Illinois. Indiana beats Illinois handily with lower unemployment, lower inequality, lower taxes, and lower debts. Billboards all along the border urge Illinois residents to move eastward in order to escape their state’s bad government.

Enter Bruce Rauner. A Republican of a more libertarian-ish bent, he promises lower taxes, lower spending, less regulation, and less kowtowing to public sector unions. He’s in favor of school choice, right-to-work laws, and other reforms that have been successful in other states. He’s moderate on social issues and has shown considerable ability to reach out to inner-city communities. Nationwide, many people believe in him and resources are pouring in for his campaign.

If anyone can break the Democratic stranglehold on Illinois, he looks like the one.

I’m not sure a republican governor is that uncommon in Illinois

Democrats are only three of the last seven governors.

As a long time resident of Illinois it puzzles me that people think this is true when the facts show otherwise. Chicago/Cook County is solidly Democratic but there are a lot of folks in Illinois and a lot of conservative folks in the 'burbs and downstate.

Since 1961 the Democrats have held the seat of Governor for 27 years; the Republicans for 26 years so the idea a R could win is hardly surprising.

Illinois has been pretty reliable for the D’s in Presidential elections; for statewide offices things have been much less one sided.

The last Republican Gov. that Illinois had went to prison.

All the Govs in Ill go to jail. It’s just the way it is.

As did the last Democratic governor (prior to the current one). However, the governor before those two, Republican Jim Edgar, was and remains one of the most respected and successful in recent memory.

The State of Illinois is, financially, a mess. This isn’t really Pat Quinn’s fault, as far as I can tell, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it motivated people to vote for the Republican non-incumbent.

Yet again: Local politics are always, always different from national politics.

Rauner has some ‘splainin’ to do about his money in the Caymans. And probably about his ranch in Montana, not downstate where it belongs.

Yeah, the guy before Blagojevich was a Republican. In my lifetime, half of the governors were Republicans. Frankly, it was amazing that Quinn won re-election last time and only managed due to the GOP running a lousy candidate. I’ll vote for Quinn but not because he deserves re-election but because I like Rauner less. When Quinn loses, he’ll have largely deserved it.

Also, given that the state legislature is guaranteed to remain Democratic, I think there’s more of a resigned shrug out of Democrats in the state than any real “panic”.

And that guy went to jail for an equally ridiculous scandal. Doesn’t matter if they’re a Republican or a Democrat, they can be governor, and then they go to jail. I’m just waiting for the secrets about Pat Quinn to come out, won’t surprise me one bit.

Boy, Pat Quinn made one hell of a Lt. Governor though, didn’t he?

Yep. We never heard squat from him, like it should be. I’d vote for him as Lt Gov again; it’s only because of Rauner that I’d vote for Quinn for Gov again.

I always wonder when people talk about how the economy does under governors. It seems to me that the governor has little impact on a state’s economic growth, that’s more to do with the swings of the national economy than anything a governor does or doesn’t do.

Perhaps they could generate a few jobs in the Springfield area by building an annex to the governor’s mansion to be the jail for former governors. This way the sitting governor can live in the main house and when convicted, has to merely walk his way down to the prison wing.

State lines are easier to move across than national lines. If Illinois’ neighbors are more competitive, then business and workers will tend to go there. The rest of the region has enjoyed a nice recovery. Illinois has lagged more than any other state in that region.

I’m not finding that convincing. Businesses don’t pack up and move in great numbers. Michigan’s recovery began when the auto industry recovered, pure and simple. Workers aren’t terribly mobile either. A new business in Illinois would hire Illinois workers, not migrants from other states. To give credit or blame on economic growth or lack thereof to the governor I think is misplaced.

Well, there has to be an explanation for why some states recover more than other states. Sometimes it’s not government, but sometimes it is. Illinois is lagging its neighbors, badly.

Yeah, as a life-long resident of Illinois, I generally think of the governor as being Republican. I’m almost 40, and from 1977-2003 (26 consecutive years), the governors were Republican. A Republican heading the state is not exactly unusual in Illinois. It’s been the norm for much of my life.

In the “politics are local” file, Paul Davis (D) is leading Sam Brownback ® by 10 points to become the next governor of Kansas. No one is saying how this spells the collapse of the GOP in Kansas or the end of the “Republican stranglehold” in Kansas or this means Kansas is turning purple or anything.

Which they shouldn’t, because it indicates none of those things.

Nope. But it does show that bad governance gets you fired.

I don’t think anyone here is arguing that Quinn is a good governor. I was surprised when he won election* last time. While I’d rather have him in office than Rauner on ideological grounds and will thus vote for him, I can’t make the case that he’s earned it. But Rauner isn’t going to break the “stranglehold” of the Illinois General Assembly’s Democratic supermajorites and more than Davis is going to break the supermajorities in the Kansas state legislature.

*I was going to say “re-election” but I guess that’s not really accurate since he was ‘promoted’ to the job with Blagojevich’s departure and then ran for a full term.