Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn faces Republican challenger Bruce Rauner. Thus far, every poll taken this years shows Rauner winning. The latest shows Rauner up by 14 percentage points.
At first glance a Republican victory would have to seem unlikely. Illinois is one of the most reliably Democratic states by any measure, routinely picking Dems by large margins for President, Congress, and at state and local levels. Four years ago they put a Democrat back in the state house even after Rod Blagojevich went to jail in for an act of corruption that was stunning even by modern standards. Illinois is also the home state of a certain Barack Obama. Nonetheless, here we are with election day three months away and a Republican leading in the polls.
To see why, we might perhaps take a peek at how the Illinois economy has fared under the Democrats. Between 2008 and 2012, the state’s economy posted total economic growth of just 2% in four years. Quinn can brag about giving his state one of the nation’s highest unemployment rates, high economic inequality, a lousy climate for business, the worst credit rating of any state in the country, high income taxes, high corporate taxes, and high taxes of all kinds. Then there’s the fact that the city of Chicago is going bankrupt, with the entire state soon to follow. And let’s not forget lousy job growth and the fact that people are fleeing the state in droves.
Combined with all this is the fact that it need not be happening. Other midwestern states–Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan–have elected Republican governors and cruised to better economic performance. Indiana is a particularly important competitor since it shares such a long border with Illinois. Indiana beats Illinois handily with lower unemployment, lower inequality, lower taxes, and lower debts. Billboards all along the border urge Illinois residents to move eastward in order to escape their state’s bad government.
Enter Bruce Rauner. A Republican of a more libertarian-ish bent, he promises lower taxes, lower spending, less regulation, and less kowtowing to public sector unions. He’s in favor of school choice, right-to-work laws, and other reforms that have been successful in other states. He’s moderate on social issues and has shown considerable ability to reach out to inner-city communities. Nationwide, many people believe in him and resources are pouring in for his campaign.
If anyone can break the Democratic stranglehold on Illinois, he looks like the one.