Also the thing about foreign policy is it can only hurt a President, not help them. It’s interesting because the President has a ton of control of U.S. foreign policy, but it is just not an issue most Americans are normally concerned about.
If the President has gotten us involved in something disastrous overseas, that can cost him votes. But no manner of overseas success can save an otherwise weak President come election night. George H.W. Bush thought that his building of a global coalition to knock Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, and the overall masterful conducting of the Persian Gulf War would be enough to get him reelected despite economic woes. He was wrong, the American people didn’t care that he did a good job with the Persian Gulf War.
Of course it gives them pause and they already considered him a moderate Republican before he demonstrated it with his foreign policy.
I personally think that if politics were completely one-dimensional that Obama would be right around my place, that is, perhaps a few percentage points left of center, even though I disagree with him on certain topics both to the “left” and “right”.
But I just don’t see him losing yet. I give him over 50% chance of winning. If the economy gets worse it’s anyone’s game, but unless the GOP can manage to nominate a sane and charasmatic nominee, the election is Obama’s to lose. Even some who consider themselves “true progressives” would be more likely to come out to vote for Obama just so that the likes of Bachmann won’t get into the White House.
But do you see the Tea Party sitting idly by while a bland RINO gets the nomination? I think if it’s Romney, there’s a good chance that either the energized right wing will be less energized and stay home on election day or else nominate their own candidate.
I don’t care what any pollsters say or any partisans say, there is a real, real good chance Obama wins re-election simply because there is so much division in the Republican Party right now. There’s a very destructive battle of Principle vs Winnable and “What’s best for our ideology” vs “What’s best for our country” taking place on the right side of the aisle.
On paper, a black man with an Arabic-sounding name shouldn’t have been able to beat a well-known, likeable, centrist war hero. But he did. And on paper, a president with high unemployment and a public that increasingly believes the country is headed in the wrong direction shouldn’t be able to win re-election. But I suspect he will. Never underestimate Barack Obama’s ability to campaign, and don’t overestimate the public’s willingness to try something new.
I would greatly appreciate further explanation from the OP of any or all of the following points:
By what measure do you determine that persons such as President Obama, and Bill and Hillary Clinton, who have based their careeers on public service within the current system, “hate America”?
In what way, just in general, no detail needed at this time, did Obama personally “make the economy worse”?
Which specific policies of the current administration “suck ass”, in your view? All of them? Is it possible for the current administration, maybe by accident, to come up with a policy that doesn’t suck ass, or would you say it is inherent in the system?
Lastly and most importantly, I’d greatly appreciate it if the OP could explain what he thinks ten exclamation points at the end of a single sentence do, that one does not.
I tend to agree with this analysis. But, one thing I’m wondering is if it’s Romney, who the tea party guys are not a big fan of, will someone like Bachmann run as a third party candidate and take the right wing votes away from him?
It sort of makes me wonder if Romney, presuming he were the candidate, would have to take on a running mate with tea party cred to keep that from happening. Maybe even taking Bachmann, but probably someone with less baggage.