That day will only come when the Republican party is decisively condemned and repudiated by an overwhelming majority of white people.
That day may have already arrived, according to what this article is suggesting:
From the article…
Suburban voters appear to have been a major factor helping Biden win. While Pew found Trump winning the suburbs by 2 points in 2016, Biden won them by 11 points in 2020, a 13-point overall swing. Considering that the suburbs accounted for just over half of all voters, it was a big demographic win for Biden.
In 2020, men were nearly evenly split, with 48% choosing Biden to Trump’s 50%. That gap shrank considerably from 2016, when Trump won men by 11 points. In addition, this group that swung away from Trump grew as a share of the electorate from 2016 — signaling that in a year with high turnout, men’s turnout grew more.
White men were a big part of the swing toward Biden. In 2016, Trump won white men by 30 points. In 2020, he won them again, but by a substantially slimmer 17 points.
Edit: This does not indicate white people are repudiating the Republican party in general, since Republicans gained in other areas. But it is a positive sign IMHO.
The good news is that he’s old as hell, and not in the best of health. I personally doubt that Trumpism will survive him as a guiding principle of the Republican Party; instead, they’ll do one of three things- try and keep it going with one of his moron sons as the figurehead, and fail spectacularly because they’re not him. Or they’ll try to keep it going with some other GOP person, and fail because again, they’re not him. Or possibly (least likely IMO) they’ll pull back closer to where they were in say… 2014-2015 and offer up a more standard candidate.
That’s the catch with cults of personality; they’re so centered around the actual person that they rarely survive that person’s exit.
I hope you are right, but I don’t think that there was anything particularly special about Trump that made the personality cult. As I see it, there are three main keys to Trumps success.
- First, get the attention of the media
- Shamelessly pander to the base,
- Don’ let anything else (the truth, ethics, consequences, policy goals, legality etc.) get in the way of parts one and two.
This is a formula that any Republican with enough Chutzpah could follow. The only reason he succeeded so well is that up until then, the conventional wisdom was that making an ass of yourself to get attention, telling obvious lies, and having no realistic policies would doom your candidacy. Now that that has been proven false its open to anyone.
The only thing standing in the way of someone following the above formula is that the spot of media pandering asshole is already filled so its hard for others to get the same attention, and that once he does fall, there will be a crab bucket fight over who gets to take his place.
You know, despite 2016 being fully five years ago, part of me still is in disbelief that Donald Trump - DONALD TRUMP - was at one point president of the United States.
And yet, gay marriage – a “right” that was invented out of thin air, with zero historical precedent – is still the law of the land, and it is extremely common for anybody who speaks against it to be considered an agent of hate.
Unless gay marriage is outlawed, nobody can claim with ANY degree of credibility that conservatives are winning.
I guess I’ll agree with you that social conservatives aren’t winning.
Authoritarian nationalists and business conservatives are winning and social conservatives are hitching themselves along for the ride in the hopes that they’ll get a payoff at some point.
yeah you can. conservatives are winning the culture wars on guns, abortion and racism. the courts are moving right, income inequality keeps getting worse. the right keeps moving further right and getting more vocal.
Also as mentioned our democracy rewards rural voters more than urban and rewards small states more than large states. throw in gerrymandering, voter suppression, intimidation of poll workers etc and its lopsided.
also my religious beliefs prohibit inter-christian marriage.
On the other hand, it looks like God has sent us a plague that [from this point forward] only kills Republicans, so there’s that.
But is still given the best medical care in the world.
I don’t know that it is. I think it’s more likely that Biden’s relative success with white (and particularly white male) voters is the last dying echo of the old Democratic coalition. Biden was uniquely situated to appeal to these voters, being an old white guy himself and having spent decades building his brand to appeal to blue collar, largely white, voters. Is Kamala Harris going to have the same level of success with white working-class voters in PA, WI, MI, etc.? And if not, how does she (or any other Democrat) build an electoral college majority?
The conservative right isn’t actually conservative. But the right-wing is winning in their attacks on Democracy. SCOTUS has gutted the Voting Rights Act. Their party, the Republicans, controls the majority of state legislatures. Because of extreme gerry-mandering, they have an over-representation in the House compared to their % of votes. Because of the Senate being biased in favor of smaller, rural states, they have an over-representation compared to their % of votes. Because of the electoral college, they have won 2 elections in the last 20 years where the Dem candidate received more total votes. And because of the Filibuster, a 40-person minority in the Senate can stop the vast majority of legislation, even if said legislation is popular with the public.
And now they’re openly attacking voting rights anywhere and in any state where they have a majority.
Democrats have gradually - and much too slowly - moved the country to the left on policy. And miraculously, they have a majority in both houses and in they occupy the White House. But it’s all in danger of being lost if they don’t do something with democracy-affirming legislation in the next year. I would de-fang the Filibuster or get rid of it altogther. I would pass legislation that strengthens voting rights and curbs what certain states would do against voting rights. I would also make DC a state. This longing for the days of bipartisanship is delusional. Dems need to understand what they are dealing with, and take action while they still have the power to do so.
Today I learned that Michigan voters passed a law to take redistricting power away from the legislature and put it into the hands of a citizen redistricting commission chosen by random lot from a list of people who apply to be on the commission.
“In Michigan, a non-politician commission is responsible for drawing both congressional and state legislative district plans. The commission comprises 13 members, including four Democrats, four Republicans, and five unaffiliated voters or members of minor parties. In order for a map to be enacted, at least seven members must vote for it, including at least two Democrats, two Republicans, and two members not affiliated with either major party.”
I’m quite sure that the Republican legislature in that state is furious about this. I wonder why this wasn’t bigger news? I pay relatively close attention to (political) news, and this was the first i ever heard of it.
I would hope you’re correct and it looks that way – they’ve pretty much abandoned anything but lip service to sustaining democracy and fall back on, “We gotta do this or the evil Democrats will win!”
But the Germans ultimately lost the Battle of the Bulge because they ran out of fuel. I can’t see conservatives running out of lies any time soon.
They do care about those things, but only for themselves. Their ideal future is one in which this standard is no longer neutrally enforced by the government for all people, and instead white people are elevated such that “market forces” mean they enjoy those standards while everybody else is compelled to work like pack animals. They don’t understand that if those standards are removed, they’ll suffer along with everybody else. It’s the face-eating leopard problem, as usual.
They are winning on guns & abortion. Abortion is being rolled back in the states. With guns, they are passing laws that make concealed carry or open carry easier. And more people own guns than ever before. On racism, I don’t necessarily think the Right is winning. There is a higher % of inter-racial marriages of all types than the old days, and it’s not controversial anymore.
The gay marriage thing is an enduring victory of the left. And I would argue that the fact that the ACA is still standing, and still the law, is a victory of the left. The ACA is a flawed law that needs a lot of tune-up/tweaks/edits/re-work to do what was originally intended. But there is now a majority of America that believes that UHC is a right, which would not have been the case 15 years ago. And there are now 37 states plus DC which have implemented a Medicaid expansion. For GodSakes, Oklahoma just launched their Medicaid expansion on July 1st. And there are now over 31 million people who have coverage because of the ACA today.
Some of the things that Biden is proposing will be victories for the left if implemented. Child tax credits. Universal pre-K. Paid leave. Free Community College. ACA 2.0. We’ll see what he does with Climate Change. Congress has the next year to implement these things. If they are implemented, most of them will stick permanently, I think, as they are popular.
I think the Right is winning on Democracy rollbacks. On policy, it’s more of a mixed bag, but the left seems to gradually be moving policy in their direction.
This is the kind of thing I meant when I referred to “glacial” progress. Every state that enacts non-gerrymandered district drawing means we’re closer to the day when Republicans never get control of the House. It’ll take time.
Aren’t Obama and Eric Holder heading an anti-gerrymandering project?
When I say the right is winning on racism, I mean people who harbor racist attitudes are much more extreme and vocal than 20 years ago.
Yes a large share of Americans are less racist than maybe 50 years ago, which is great. But the % who are racist are much less ashamed and much more vocal about it than they used to be. Granted those people always existed, but they weren’t so vocal and openly proud of their bigotry. If you watch Fox News its basically just an effort to scare white people with stories of scary brown people, scary immigrants, scary muslims, etc. and Trump rallies are just klan rallies at this point. In fact the government has started using laws designed to suppress the KKK written in the 1870s to deal with some of the domestic terrorism and intimidation tactics used by Trumps base.
The ACA was a move in the right direction, but yes it is filled with holes. However, again, it was a right wing policy item anyway and probably something the GOP of the 80s would’ve supported before the white supremacists and christian dominionists took over the party.
I really really hope Biden passes some huge agenda items before 2022. Voting reform, climate reform, infrastructure, medical expansions, social welfare expansions. I would love that, but in between Manchin and Sinema I don’t know if he will be able to.
Anyway, is the right wing winning? Yes in many ways. They can get fewer votes and still win. They’re far more organized and vocal (and better funded) than ever before. They keep moving further to the right to the point where people who used to be written off as too conservative are now targets of the right as RINOs.
On the plus side, the right does seem to be getting more and more stupid, so hopefully that’ll slow them down. But overall, I don’t think the left will really be ascendant until the 2030s or 2040s (when the oldest millennials are 60 and the boomers and silent generation are gone), and by then climate change may have led to mass immigration which causes a resurgence in far right politics.
Yes, the racists are more out in the open, and the election of Trump was an affirmation that America still struggles with racism. But think about what just happened over the last year. The BLM protests were truly multi-cultural. There were people of all stripes in those marches. And we elected a President who supports the BLM movement, and who selected a multi-racial (Black and Asian) female as his VP. Then, a few weeks ago, Juneteenth was made a national holiday with large support in congress from both parties. I think the race issue will always be a thing in America. But I think the move has been in the direction of the left.
As for pocketbook issues, think about what occurred over the last year during the pandemic. Our congress passed multiple stimulus bills that added up to 5-6 trillion dollars, where a large portion of the benefits flowed to everyday average Americans. This was a better government reaction to the pandemic than seen in much of the rest of the world. I think there is now a realization within both parties that debt/deficits is not an existential issue, and is overrated as a problem. And now the Democrats will have a chance to pass more of these big-spending priorities. I think Manchin & Sinema will constrict some of this. But they have shown a willingness to agree to big legislation, as they both voted for Biden 1.9 trillion ARP a few months back.
I would agree with you that the right is winning mostly on cultural issues (guns, abortion) and voting rights. On most of others, it’s either a “push” or it’s nudged toward the left. Let’s see where Biden’s agenda goes during the next year. That will set the table for the next ten years, in my view, as he has a historic chance to make real change that helps average people with pocketbook issues, and to begin to address climate change.
One of the things that helped Trump is the last election were the riots and the calls to “defund the police”. If there is no major rioting leading up to the next elections I think that will take a little wind out of their sails.
The rise in violent crime is troubling. I hope we can get a handle on that.