Impact of the 2016 election on the Supreme Court

Politics & Elections
1

I was looking at the the Supreme Court Justices bios and it made me wonder how many of this group would be serving in 2020 and 2024.

I guess the real question is, how many justices will the next president get to name? I’m not trying to be morbid (they can retire too) but it seems like it might be a real change especially since four of the current Justices were born in the 1930s.

2

Potentially several, though I’d think the winner of the election might decide which ones.

Presuming the next President gets two terms and lasts until 2024 then by the end the ages will be:

Scalia: 88
Kennedy: 88
Thomas: 76
Ginsburg: 91
Breyer: 86
Roberts: 69
Alito: 74
Sotomayor: 68
Kagan: 64

Thank God none were born after me yet. Bad enough when the baseball players started that.

Even with good health care - they get the best - four of them will be past their actuarial sell-by dates by 2024 and it’s not impossible for all of them to be subject to the grim reaper. Presuming not all of them are I’d say anywhere from 2-4 appointments will be available to the next President should s/he serve two full terms.

I’m also again convinced that whether or not they step down or die in office will depend on who wins. I simply can’t see Scalia voluntarily leaving the bench if Hilary would be naming his replacement. Ditto with Ginsburg should Bush or Walker or somesuch pull out the win.

It’ll be an interesting time.

Also, to be honest, a part of me says that Scalia loves the gig and won’t leave except feet first no matter who is president.

3

I think the same thing about Scalia. If Kennedy remains the swing vote, I don’t think he’ll step down either. It seems he relishes that role.

4

Each of the last four presidents has had two appointments, for what it’s worth.

5

It is very distressing that Roberts is still so young.

6

But it’s encouraging that he’s not an ideologue.

Thomas may not be the oldest, but stories have it that he doesn’t take care of himself at all (he certainly looks like it). So, I have some nonzero expectation that his slot is going to be open next. Ginsburg is old and small but she’s wiry and tough, so I think she can hang on for a good long while yet.

The 2016 election matters, yes, but it’s the Senate election that may matter even more - if it goes back Democratic, which is a good bet, then Republican filibusters of President Clinton’s nominees will be hard to get away with. If it stays Republican, then their simple obstructionism will also be harder.