Let’s try to predict the future of the SCOTUS for the duration of the Trump presidency. How many picks do you think Trump will have? Kennedy, Ginsburg and Breyer are the three oldest members. My guess is that Ginsburg and Breyer are going to try and outlast Trump. I think there is a decent chance they can make it till 2020, though obviously not a guarantee. I think Kennedy is the most likely to retire. I’m predicting he will probably retire just after the 2018 midterms. My prediction is that he will have 1 more pick, most likely to replace Kennedy. What do you all think?
I said zero because I honestly don’t think Trump will serve a year.
I think none, I would bet that Ginsburg hangs on for dear life until after November 2020. If Trump is going to make a nominee it would be if Clarence Thomas retires - presuming Thomas feels good about what a Trump-nominated replacement would be.
Based on what evidence?
I guessed two, Scalia, and Ginsburg. Ginsburg’s health problems have been piling up to the point where some activists wanted her to step down during Obama’s administration.
Breyer and Kennedy are still in good health. They’ll make it through four years easy, eight years probably.
Two.
Thomas to retire. And, alas, some of the liberal stalwarts are aging and I suspect health problems will catch up with at least one of them, most likely RBG.
If I’m right a confirmation fight to replace RBG with a Trump nomination will make the Gorsuch hearings look like a genteel tea party.
No evidence required for an opinion.
And I can’t speak for Frank the Chicken, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump either resigned or was impeached within the year. Given all of the scandals and controversies surrounding his administration, I think it’s a possibility.
Any conversation about his term’s length really belongs in a different thread, though.
No evidence is required in Great Debates/Elections? Really?
I’m asking what he’s basing his opinion on. Surely that’s allowed in this forum.
I can’t speak for anyone else, but I also share the view that Trump will be gone within a year. Based on the fact he’s a complete ass, and even those who support him don’t like him much. It won’t take much of a scandal to turn people against him. Given his stupidity and arrogance, I have a hunch there’s a scandal out there waiting to be discovered. Still just an opinion (perhaps colored by a deep longing for *something *to save us)
Maybe I misunderstood what you were asking for, but many media people - on both sides of the aisle - have speculated about Trump not making it a full term. It seemed to me like it was going to result in a pedantic aside to the topic of the thread.
If I misunderstood, mea culpa, but there was a time or two where you had questioned a typo I’d made which seemed to me to be petty. I can’t think of specific examples, as it’s been a while, so I could be misremembering. I don’t think so, though.
Either way, that’s immaterial to the thread at hand, so forgive my hijack.
Yes and no. If the OP asked, “Assuming a full term, how many justices do you think Trump will appoint?” that would be different. But that wasn’t the question.
Fair enough, but my point still stands. Any non-SCotUS Trump talk about his term deserves its own thread.
(post shortened)
Are those the very same media people who “speculated” that Hillary could not lose?
The elected Democrats simply do not have the votes to impeach Trump. Especially without any actual proof of treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors. The Democrat Party needs to elect a lot more Congressmen, and Senators, before they could manage something like that.
Ginsburg, Kennedy, and Breyer probably won’t last another eight years. And Trump may turn the number of Supremes up to eleven.
I’m not going to rehash all of those conversations regarding the election or its results. All I did was make a reference to speculation. If you wish to discuss this further, we can do so in another thread. It has no place in this one.
Based upon the supposition that Trump will last 4 years, but no more, I’d say he has a 50% chance to appoint 2 justices (total).
There should be some stats on this. Of all the presidents, all the terms, there must be an average number of appointments per presidential year, also a min/max range.
Here’s what I have found. In the 228 years since George’s first election, there have been 113 Supremes (confirmed, not just nominated). That gives us an average of 2 years between appointments.
113 Supremes / 43 presidents gives a rough average of 3 per president. The range is 0…10, but GW probably should not be used to make the average or range, since he started with a court of zero members and had to appoint all of the first batch.
3 presidents appointed none (Carter, Johnson, Harrison). Jackson appointed 6 and FDR, the most, 8 (if you exclude GW). Even though he had an unfair advantage with almost 4 terms, that still works out to about 1 per 2 year stretch
So, just playing the averages and barring impeachment or dismemberment, Trump will appoint 2 in his four-year term.
You were the one who said, “but many media people - on both sides of the aisle - have speculated about Trump not making it a full term.”
I pointed out that those media people have been known to be wrong. How much trust should We the People have in the voice of the obviously biased media people?
I assume Trump will serve his full term, and maybe another. That gives Trump 4, or 8, years to pick 1, or more, Supremes. Which is the topic of this thread.
. . . and other times they’ve been known to be right. Your desire to express your thoughts and nitpick on “biased media” that others might be using to form their opinions is a hijack to the initial question.
Expecting 2, hoping for zero.
Your math appears quite straightforward, Superdude. Would it complicate it overmuch to take into account the varying numbers of justices on the court over the years? I was astonished to learn it hasn’t always been set at 9. (In retrospect, that fact makes FDR’s infamous court-packing plan seem less egregious.)
I believe RBG will never give up the ship so long as she draws breath. Even if she gets too sick to work, she will not yield her place now, considering how much is at stake. She is right now practically the only thing standing between Trump and civilization itself. In the words of Pascal, nothing but a reed, the most feeble thing in nature—but a thinking reed.
I would like to correct a previous post of mine.
This site says George Washington appointed 11 justices, not 8, and FDR appointed 9. I don’t know why there is a discrepancy, or which is correct, but some of those credited as “appointed” may have been merely elevated from Associate to Chief Justice on the same court, effectively counting them twice.
And I omitted one president in the “none appointed” category. It should read “4 presidents appointed none (Carter, Johnson, Harrison, Taylor)”.