Are liberals facing the equivalent of political checkmate with the Supreme Court for the next 25-30 years?
An interesting question. Trump’s nominee, which will be announced today at 9:00 PM Eastern Standard time will likely get approved, giving the conservatives a 5-4 majority, with the elimination of the sometimes middle swing vote in Kennedy who has retired.
While a 5-4 is a slim majority by the numbers, predicting how the court will vote on the issues of Criminal Procedure, Civil Rights, First Amendment Rights, Unions, Economic issues, Federalism and Federal Taxes will become much easier to forecast.
The endgame for a generation will happen when Ruth Ginsberg, who will be 86 in August, or Stephen Breyer who will be 80 in August create a vacancy.
I have no idea how you think Federal Taxes is coming up, please elaborate.
After the midterms this administration will be castrated and the operative issues before the court will be “can the president pardon himself?” and “can a sitting president be indicted?” Except for the Chief Justice, who will be taking up temporary quarters in the Senate.
The incoming Democratic Senate will thwart any future nomination.
This appointment of whatever crazy extremist gets nominated doesn’t change the court that much- Kennedy was no moderate himself.
The new justice will probably be a libertarian. The Federalist Society keeps track of conservative and libertarian justices. The Republican party - with an eye to polling numbers - and our philandering President will want to preserve Roe v. Wade, so they’ll avoid the conservative half of the Federalist Society and pick a libertarian member (most likely).
While this isn’t amazing for liberals, it’s not bad either. It means more decisions like Masterpiece Cakes, where the Supreme Court rules that being an asshole isn’t a crime, it just makes you an asshole. But at the same time, it will support freedom to be LGBTQ or do whatever else you want in your life.
Libertarians are afraid of government oversight and government intrusion into ones personal life, so they are likely to favor the average person against the police, and have a very wide interpretation of the 1st Amendment (which was also true of Kennedy, as I understand it).
This incoming Democratic Senate isn’t happening unless Democrats hang on to all of the following - Montana, Indiana, West Virginia, Missouri, and North Dakota - and also win two in Arizona, Texas, Tennessee, et al.
I would say the odds of a liberal judge sneaking by Trump are near zero. He has a vetted list of people with track records.
At age 86, Ginsberg is not likely to be active if Trump is re-elected. How often does 86 year old make 90+? I don’t know. A life insurance person would likely be able to answer that question.
From the anecdotal evidence in my family, there is a huge difference between in mental and physical ability between the mid-80s and age 90 or higher. People tend to age in dog years once they approach 90.They might be still alive, but the ones I knew would not be able to serve in the capacity the job demands.
I tend to believe Rick Scott a very good 2 term governor for the State of Florida will defat senator Bill Nelson. Scott is in the lead, outside of the margin of error in some polls. If/When this happens, it’s -1 for the Dem’s.
I tend to think the Republicans will either have a majority or 50.50 split in the Senate post the 2018 midterm elections, which would pave the way for the President in many areas, including nominating another supreme court justice should an opening present itself.
Or even a Roberts - who is conservative but flexible on certain issues. Recall that Eisenhower referred to Warren as a mistake at one point. So sometimes picks can fool you.
Recall, too, that Thomas and Alito are both in their 70s. They have excellent health care but their both at the stage where they’re getting to the average life expectancy for a male (78 for a male in the US). Speaking as a guy who got cancer at 50, the odds do sometimes get even.
To think about ‘political checkmate’ in any part of the American system is to be as foolish as Gingrich in the 90s speaking of a ‘permanent Republican majority’. It’s just not the way things work here. There’s an ebb and flow to American governance that must be continually adjusted and accounted for.
I don’t think Trump will be reelected, and Ginsburg will only have to hang on for 2.5 more years. As for her mental ability, I think she is determined to stick it out even if she completely deteriorates. Is there a way a SCOTUS justice can be declared incapacitated or unfit, but without impeachment or death?
Federal Taxes = The government’s ability to define and enforce tax concepts and policies in cases involving the Internal Revenue Code and related statues.
The below link shows a breakdown as to how the current justices rule on various topics.
Sweeping predictions like this are no more than guesses at this point. But they obviously play a large role in the fantasies of Trump lovers, as we’ve seen many times in these threads.
I’m not sure if a supreme court justice can be declared unfit to serve. A sharp decline in mental abilities such as dementia could cause a person to forget their views and change. Or make it difficult to think and remember current conversations. If such as disease were to overcome a Supreme Court Justice, I do think that person would eventually have to be removed.
Cameras typically are not allowed in the supreme court. In theory, the clerks could take over, with the compromised Justice being no more than a figurehead, but I would not be for that.
Thanks, very interesting. I guess those who viewed the chart are looking at how much time they have left, on average.
Asking the near impossible, if you were to factor in known health issues, what would the chart say? Since the 1990s Ginsberg has suffered two bouts of cancer as well as heart problems.