How many more SCOTUS justices do you think Trump will appoint?

[Wesley_Clark]

@FrankTheChicken

I said zero because I honestly don’t think Trump will serve a year.

I never thought he’d win. We’ve underestimated him pretty badly.

I pick 2. Scalia and Ginsberg (or Kennedy).

Worst case scenario? Ginsberg and Kennedy both die in the next 4 years.

[Wesley_Clark]

@Musicat

Based upon the supposition that Trump will last 4 years, but no more, I’d say he has a 50% chance to appoint 2 justices (total).

There should be some stats on this. Of all the presidents, all the terms, there must be an average number of appointments per presidential year, also a min/max range.

Here’s what I have found. In the 228 years since George’s first election, there have been 113 Supremes (confirmed, not just nominated). That gives us an average of 2 years between appointments.

113 Supremes / 43 presidents gives a rough average of 3 per president. The range is 0…10, but GW probably should not be used to make the average or range, since he started with a court of zero members and had to appoint all of the first batch.

3 presidents appointed none (Carter, Johnson, Harrison). Jackson appointed 6 and FDR, the most, 8 (if you exclude GW). Even though he had an unfair advantage with almost 4 terms, that still works out to about 1 per 2 year stretch

So, just playing the averages and barring impeachment or dismemberment, Trump will appoint 2 in his four-year term.

In modern times, it seems that each president who serves 8 years appoints 2. Obama, Bush jr, Clinton. Before that in Reagan and Bush Sr time they were appointing 2 every 4 years, but maybe due to longer life expectancy and picking judges who are younger (early 50s, who do not die until their 80s) a timeline of one every 4 years seems likely. However 3 judges are now very close to 80 or over 80.

[running_coach]

@D_Anconia

No evidence is required in Great Debates/Elections? Really?

I’m asking what he’s basing his opinion on. Surely that’s allowed in this forum.

Witnessing is allowed in GD and that sure as hell requires no evidence.

[Silver_lining]

At least two, mostly likely three considering the ages of the people on the court.

Ginsberg is likely the next to exit.

[Superdude]

@Johanna

Your math appears quite straightforward, Superdude. Would it complicate it overmuch to take into account the varying numbers of justices on the court over the years? I was astonished to learn it hasn’t always been set at 9. (In retrospect, that fact makes FDR’s infamous court-packing plan seem less egregious.)

I believe RBG will never give up the ship so long as she draws breath. Even if she gets too sick to work, she will not yield her place now, considering how much is at stake. She is right now practically the only thing standing between Trump and civilization itself. In the words of Pascal, nothing but a reed, the most feeble thing in nature—but a thinking reed.

I believe you have me confused with someone else, as I didn’t use any math.

[astorian]

The answer depends on the health of people I can only speculate about.

I have to figure Breyer and Ginsburg are liberal and stubborn enough to stick around in hopes of a Democrat President in 2021. Kennedy may be okay with a Republican replacement. But I can’t possibly know how their health will hold up, or how long any of them will last.

[FlikTheBlue]

Some clarifications.

1. Feel free to guess / assume whatever the length of Trump’s term will be. I intentionally did not specify 4 years, because I don’t think that’s a given.

2. I’m not counting Gorsuch, since Trump had already made that pick when I asked the question.

I think RBG and Breyer will hang on, even going as far as Rehnquist did to hang on to the bitter end if need be. Kennedy, on the other hand, I can see retiring after the 2018 midterms. I’m also assuming that Gorsuch wins confirmation and that Trump won’t have to make a second pick for Scalia’s seat.

[Johanna]

@Superdude

I believe you have me confused with someone else, as I didn’t use any math.

Sorry I meant Musicat.