In defence of Russia

The BBQ Pit
381

Yes, you are. Finland was used as an invasion route into the Soviet Union during World War II.

Sweden has also invaded Russia, although this was three hundred years ago.

So Putin has all the pretext he needs to invade Finland and Sweden. Finland and Sweden, seeing this, are joining a defensive alliance.

Russia needs to come to the understanding that its desire to “defend” itself by bringing the countries along its borders under its control is what is causing those same countries to fear being invaded by Russia. And threatening non-NATO countries like Ukraine, Finland, and Sweden makes those countries realize that being neutral is not a safe option and pushes them in the direction of joining NATO.

Putin is creating his own problems.

382

I did know about the three hundred year ago event. Turned out okay for Russia for a while…

383

If you go back far enough, to conflate to now. ( wild guess at use of word conflate ) Then all is possible and maybe somehow justifiable. But those folks are already dead. Too many dying now.

384

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an event that is going on right now.

My point is that other countries can look at the reasons Putin gave to justify invading Ukraine and see that Putin could apply the same justifications to their own countries. So it is reasonable for these countries to worry that Russia might attack them as it has attacked Ukraine.

NATO isn’t expanding because it has hostile designs against Russia. NATO is expanding as a response to Russia’s actions.

385

Russia could stop the dying at any moment by withdrawing from Ukraine.

386

Duh. And another Duh to beat the character limit.

387

Fortunately, the not-even-a-state has an actual competent and committed military that is totally dominating the invading Russians, who are not just incompetent but unmotivated and for the most part seem not to want to be there at all. Which is the actual state again?

388

Fuck Russia and all their sympathizers like Kedikat. They started an unprovoked war and have caused massive death and destruction. They are evil.

389

If it makes you feel better, he isn’t fooling anyone.

390

Hey, they got a whole 2 votes for “Other”! :crazy_face:

391

Well, “totally dominating” is something of an exaggeration when the Russians are still on Ukrainian soil.

Clearly Ukraine is doing better than anyone expected, but this war is still being fought on their land and so they aren’t “Dominating.” You are getting all your information from pro-Ukraine sources, and they are downplaying Ukrainian setbacks and casualties.

392

Didn’t Russia at one time, even during Putin’s tenure as the Tsar, er president of Russia, have an embassy in Ukraine and didn’t Ukraine have an embassy in Russia? Kind of odd thing to be doing for a country one does not believe is a state. Kind of reminds me of Saddam Hussein’s stupid stunt re Kuwait.

393

I posted in the other thread. But as it is opinion, it may be moderated out. Which is fine.

This iteration of the kiddy pool is close to being shut down at the 10K mark.
I want to get in my last blast of woefully uninformed propaganda.

Russia rolled into Ukraine with a much smaller force than the Ukraine military. Of course they mostly entered via Donbas areas that were ready to welcome them in. And via Crimea which was now Russian. Russian force was smaller in personnel, but better equipped with mass of material.

Russia mostly positioned heavy and longterm along the Donbas fronts already in place. A cake walk. But obviously the wisest first step there. The forces that swept in towards Kiev were at more risk and did take more losses. I am not sure what the tactics or expectations were there. If they expected the locals to welcome them and rise up, then that failed. If they expected to pin a large amount of Ukraine forces to those areas, that succeeded. A mixed bag of success and failure whatever the plan. Losses were not so severe it seems on either side. I would guess Ukraine scored a lot more wins there. Overall poor in depth tactical planning by Russia there.

Either the Ukrainians did not have sufficient forces in the southeast or the Russians applied a lot more forces there, I am not sure. But the result was fast, deep Russian penetration and Ukrainian forces trapped in areas. Russia again solidified defensive front lines and wore down the isolated Ukraine military pockets behind those lines.

After having their asses kicked quite a bit round Kiev. Russian forces retreated. Peace talks fell apart. Ukraine spoke what minimum victory would mean. Lines hardened all round. Seems at that point the terms of victory and defeat were laid out for both sides. I wish there had still been more room for talk.

Militarily Russia was still at a personnel and possibly some material disadvantage. As it was revealed later, particularly in the Kharkiv region and a bit in Kherson. Not so much of a cake walk as they had hoped? But Russia was still overall winning in attrition. Ukraine defensive and offensive forces have constantly been on the losing side in numbers of personnel killed and wounded and material lost. It is just a sad fact. I feel that for most of this war, the Ukraine forces have performed above and beyond. Defensive forces have held fast and strong under terrible duress. Offensive forces have had a hard time, but still made some good inroads. Kharkiv was brilliant. Intel was good. Tactics were executed well. A great grab. Totally embarassing the Russians. And rightly so.

But the more hardened Russian lines have been slowly chewing up Ukraine offensive and defensive forces. Resupply of personnel and material is slowing. Russia is increasing personnel and material. It does not look good at all. Even with my limited tactical knowledge, I can see the Russian plan. Get our forces up to the existing fronts with the least effort. Sweep southwest and dig in. Then let Ukraine deliver their forces to us and wear them down. Although I might have given more thought to Kharkiv. Maybe.

At this point. Russia is bringing in more power. Ukraine supply is waining. Russia is hardening the Kherson lines. Not preparing to bug out. Russia will devote more forces to offense near Donetsk. To eliminate shelling of the city. Push the front west. They have to. They held the referendums, for them it is Russia now. Put up or shut up.

But what about the deep south? Odesa? Leave that chip on the table to bargain with? Ukraine remains with a Black Sea port? I hope for at least that if not more. But it is not over of course. Wild things may happen. At this point, with the current level of all the players staying about the same, I suspect Ukraine will lose militarily and in territory. But going forward from the military loss I hope they can win big. They are still in a geographical and economic position to do very well. A government that puts Ukraine interests first can play the east west interests off of each other to great benefit for Ukraine. Wish they had always done it. But outside players always twisted the governments there.

394

This iteration of the kiddy pool is close to being shut down at the 10K mark.
I want to get in my last blast of woefully uninformed propaganda.

Russia rolled into Ukraine with a much smaller force than the Ukraine military. Of course they mostly entered via Donbas areas that were ready to welcome them in. And via Crimea which was now Russian. Russian force was smaller in personnel, but better equipped with mass of material.

Russia mostly positioned heavy and longterm along the Donbas fronts already in place. A cake walk. But obviously the wisest first step there. The forces that swept in towards Kiev were at more risk and did take more losses. I am not sure what the tactics or expectations were there. If they expected the locals to welcome them and rise up, then that failed. If they expected to pin a large amount of Ukraine forces to those areas, that succeeded. A mixed bag of success and failure whatever the plan. Losses were not so severe it seems on either side. I would guess Ukraine scored a lot more wins there. Overall poor in depth tactical planning by Russia there.

Either the Ukrainians did not have sufficient forces in the southeast or the Russians applied a lot more forces there, I am not sure. But the result was fast, deep Russian penetration and Ukrainian forces trapped in areas. Russia again solidified defensive front lines and wore down the isolated Ukraine military pockets behind those lines.

After having their asses kicked quite a bit round Kiev. Russian forces retreated. Peace talks fell apart. Ukraine spoke what minimum victory would mean. Lines hardened all round. Seems at that point the terms of victory and defeat were laid out for both sides. I wish there had still been more room for talk.

Militarily Russia was still at a personnel and possibly some material disadvantage. As it was revealed later, particularly in the Kharkiv region and a bit in Kherson. Not so much of a cake walk as they had hoped? But Russia was still overall winning in attrition. Ukraine defensive and offensive forces have constantly been on the losing side in numbers of personnel killed and wounded and material lost. It is just a sad fact. I feel that for most of this war, the Ukraine forces have performed above and beyond. Defensive forces have held fast and strong under terrible duress. Offensive forces have had a hard time, but still made some good inroads. Kharkiv was brilliant. Intel was good. Tactics were executed well. A great grab. Totally embarassing the Russians. And rightly so.

But the more hardened Russian lines have been slowly chewing up Ukraine offensive and defensive forces. Resupply of personnel and material is slowing. Russia is increasing personnel and material. It does not look good at all. Even with my limited tactical knowledge, I can see the Russian plan. Get our forces up to the existing fronts with the least effort. Sweep southwest and dig in. Then let Ukraine deliver their forces to us and wear them down. Although I might have given more thought to Kharkiv. Maybe.

At this point. Russia is bringing in more power. Ukraine supply is waining. Russia is hardening the Kherson lines. Not preparing to bug out. Russia will devote more forces to offense near Donetsk. To eliminate shelling of the city. Push the front west. They have to. They held the referendums, for them it is Russia now. Put up or shut up.

But what about the deep south? Odesa? Leave that chip on the table to bargain with? Ukraine remains with a Black Sea port? I hope for at least that if not more. But it is not over of course. Wild things may happen. At this point, with the current level of all the players staying about the same, I suspect Ukraine will lose militarily and in territory. But going forward from the military loss I hope they can win big. They are still in a geographical and economic position to do very well. A government that puts Ukraine interests first can play the east west interests off of each other to great benefit for Ukraine. Wish they had always done it. But outside players always twisted the governments there.

I post this so maybe you can all point back to it in the future and guffaw. But it is my opinion at this point. Could be completely wrong in whole or in part. Just my best guess so far.

Moderators can can it if they like. Whatever. It is after all opinion. Not breaking news. But opinion is rampant here.

395

Cite? Certainly they are piling more bodies in, but every single indication is that it’s Russia running out of material. Tanks, missiles, hell even UNIFORMS are in increasingly short supply. Even RUSSIAN media sources are talking about a structured withdrawal from Kherson.

The Wagner group is making very limited gains along one small stretch of a very long front. That’s it.

Look, Russia may still “win” this via the use of scorched earth tactics and/or WMD. But they’ll have done so by literally expending a significant portion of their future populace - either thru diaspora or direct battlefield attrition. It’s almost the very definition of pyrrhic victory - especially given that the terms of the victory will ensure they get next to no economic benefit from the gained territory.

396

I’m afraid this may be true. We all rejoiced last month at the Russians running away in chaos. But the silence for the past two weeks implies that there is no good news now.
And it’s not only silence from official Ukrainian sources, but also from other western sources. Last month the news showed lots of talking heads and “expert analysis” reports from various retired generals and defense ministers, from civilian satellite photos, etc.
It’s a long, cold, dark winter ahead- millions of civilians living with no electricity, and no way to re-build all the destroyed transformers. After the Republicans win elections next week, America will stop supporting the war.
How long can Ukraine last?
I am sad today.

397

Nitpick: Materiel.

398

I know. Every time I use material, I thought I should use materiel. But I thought people might nitpick that mistakenly. Second guessing. Also, I never bothered to look up if my first impulse of materiel was officially right. So you double nailed me on that bit of laziness.

399

Apparently even a Ukraine military official stated that Russia is adding to Kherson forces not with drawing. But the sources do not provide a direct link I can post. But the sources never state such a thing if it is not there. I will try again to find it.
It is likely that the the more lightly equipped forces that have been defending Kherson are being taken out as reinforcements come in. So troops and materiel are going east as well. Looking like a pull out.

So far it does not look like Russia needs to resort to scorched earth tactics. Maybe so if it drags out long enough. But Ukraine is under a lot more strain. So it may not go so long.

400

@Kedikat
Don’t double post to two threads.

I’m going to make it official now and instruct you to stop posting in the Russia invades Ukraine breaking news thread.

When the new one starts shortly you are not to post in that one either.