There may be Russian insurgents fighting in Ukraine for years, but Putin can’t win with insurgents. The only way he could win is to destroy the capability of Ukraine to fight. And right now, Ukraine is fighting much harder, much better, much more effectively and efficiently, and with a much brighter future in terms of manpower and equipment, than Russia. Even if US policy changed in 2 years, that can’t turn Russia from a corrupt kleptocracy into a capable fighting force.
Not really. Almost all of the Kherson and Luhansk oblasts (Ukraine has small footholds and is in the process of strangling the regional capital of Kherson), but Ukraine still holds a substantial chunk of the Zaporizhzhia oblast (with the regional capital) and almost half of Donetsk oblast.
Russia doesn’t need to be a capable fighting force to win at the table what it has already taken, it just has to keep killing civilians. Something Russia does not seem shy about.
Guess we’ll both find out in due time.
We’ll find out. I don’t think Russia can hold territory with just insurgents and missiles. They can kill people, but killing people won’t hold territory. If Ukraine keeps gaining territory at anything close to the pace of the last few months, 2 years will be more than enough time to eject Russia from everything but maybe Crimea (and maybe Crimea included!).
Indeed, and the city of Zaporizhzhia has (or at least had pre-war) close to half of the population of the oblast of Zaporizhzhia, making the annexation referendums an even bigger joke than they already were.
If you want to jump on countries for violating treaties, you really don’t want to be on Russia’s side of this conflict; they have broken so many treaties I’ve lost count.
The central international agreement, the one that basically the entire world order has been based on for centuries, is the inviolability of borders and the territorial integrity of nation-states. Whatever else is true, Ukraine has never violated Russia’s territorial sovereignty. Russia has flat out invaded Ukraine and annexed its territory despite having no justification for doing so. You can bitch and moan all you want about Ukraine allegedly violating a Minsk agreement or those nasty NATO guys doing… something, but NATO hasn’t broken any treaty (and Ukraine wasn’t in NATO anyway.) Russia has.
I think we should be starting an “in Defense of Prussia” thread, perhaps getting the ball rolling on it being perfectly a-ok for Bismark to have been riding on his laurels after the victory in the Battle of Langensalza.
never mind.
In spite of all the media propaganda favoring the Allies, Operation Michael will inevitably end in a German victory.
This is, as usual for you, decidedly untrue. You are the only one taking glee in the war, by posting utter nonsense about Ukraine and your hero Putin. What is not fun for you, when you “contemplate it’s [sic] possible outcomes”, is when you realize that your hero is losing ground both literally (in Ukraine) and politically (in Russia).
Oh, and if you wished to be serious, you would quit posting the nonsense you do about the war.
I don’t generally post nonsense.
In the early stages of this pit thread I let off some pressure replying in some silly ways. Others also got the opportunity to vent on me more freely. It is the pit, so fine.
There is good interesting stuff being posted in here too.
This war is not always going well for either side. The realities at most points are that it is tougher for the Ukraine forces. Not always. They get wins. But it has generally been more difficult for them. Not in military capability of Ukraine forces in tactics, calibre of personnel or even quality of equipment. But in the numbers situation. And in the initial situation of the invasion. Russian forces had an initial upper hand in how easily they could take some areas. Those areas had already been in a war situation. Front lines were already set up. Russian forces only had to get to those existing lines with relative ease. It is only in the South East that Russia can really be said to have made gains. At the most cost. When encountering hard Ukraine, in place forces, the Russians are either reduced to a slow crawl and/or take heavy losses. The large amount of territory they managed to take there, has been stagnant for a long time. Recently some has been reclaimed. Kharkov area got taken back quickly.
Russia is trying to play the attrition tactic. Sadly it is mostly working. A few recent embarrassments stirred them to mobilize more troops and materiel ( Johnny_L.A.) 
.
This will make it even more lopsided. It isn’t, rah rah Russia, it is facts on the ground.
I, along with a whole slew of experts, did not think Russia would invade. ( NOT considering myself in some expert group at all. ) I still held out hope for diplomacy and best outcomes for everyone. I did not want an invasion and war.
But it happened.
So I keep an eye on it and hope for the best it can be. But it keeps getting worse.
I personally think it is past the point for either side to get any kind of a sort of good win. I would not have done the referendums to join Russia. That just burned big important bridges that you can’t now retreat back across. I would not demand retrieval of Crimea. Of course invasion was the first big mistake. ( I guess ) But each side keeps upping the ante to even begin to roll it back.
Then there are the totally unpredictable wild cards that may come to pass. This thing is already spreading wildly through world politics and economics. I have to keep watching it and trying to figure out what might happen. Like a bad car crash I am witnessing.
[quote=“Kedikat, post:431, topic:969166, full:true”]
I don’t generally post nonsense.[/quote]
The evidence shows otherwise. And that includes the rest of your post.
Look. You stormed in here, touting how evil Ukraine is and how the Russians are so misunderstood and put-upon. Face it. You’re a Putin bootlicker.
Well, whatever value you think your posts have, I think pretty much everyone who follows and participates in the main breaking news thread is grateful that we won’t be seeing any more of your bullshit there.
Always better to let others censor what information and opinion you might see than to just exercise your own ability to see and judge it for yourself. Hooray for suppression. Consider the content of your post, if/when you cite and complain about Russian propaganda and censorship.
What goes around, comes around.
You post partisan bullshit propaganda, and when you do come up with a source, it’s inevitably a propaganda piece. You’re full of shit. Full. Of. Shit.
PUTIN: Give me your country!
EVERY UKRAINIAN: No.
PUTIN: Ukraine does not want diplomacy! It is their fault we had to invade!
“Critical journalism can be dangerous in Russia. 17 journalists have been murdered in the past 15 years. All of them were Russian journalists, many reporting on corruption, human rights abuses or rights violations by authorities or the police. Attacks have been particularly widespread in the North Caucasus region. Some trials have taken place but, often, the masterminds behind those crimes remain free.”
“Media freedom in Russia is under attack from two sides. Firstly, broadcasters, newspapers or websites have been increasingly brought under state control or were bought by state-affiliated companies and oligarchs to ensure propaganda-like reporting in favour of the government. In April 2020, journalists at Vedomosti, one of Russia’s last independent newspapers, voiced their concerns over growing pro-Kremlin censorship after the newspaper was sold to new owners and demanded the newly installed chief editor Andrey Shmarov step down over his attempts to censor articles.”
“Secondly, the remaining independent media outlets and their journalists are attacked and threatened by authorities or powerful individuals, pressuring them to self-censor.”
http://ifj.org/media-centre/news/detail/category/end-impunity-2020/article/endimpunity-russia.html
But of course, that’s exactly like being told not to post any more Russian disinformation in a Straight Dope breaking news thread.
I object to your framing of the war as a battle of two sides of even standing. It is not. Russia is the bad guy, clearly and indisputably. They have invaded a sovereign nation; their entire war effort is criminal. Ukraine is the one being attacked; everything they do is justified as self-defense.
The idea that Ukraine should negotiate would be laughable were it not so offensive. Ukraine should not give one single inch, and Russia should be punished for decades to come. When you post things like idly wishing that Ukraine hadn’t done something to mess up negotiations, it is offensive.
I saw this thread and thought of Kedikat:
Upcoming: Russia invades Poland in response to a Polish attack on a Russian radio station.
There is precedent.