Happy, maybe even cocky! It energizes your side, and voters like a winner, so they’re more likely to vote for a winner!
But no! It’ll make them so overconfident that they’ll let victory slip away, and ambivalent voters may take that as a signal that they can stay home!
Okay, then, act like you’re five points behind. That’ll keep people motivated to continue working hard and keep an eye on both the prize and the opposition.
But no! When you’re behind, you’re depressed! You don’t want to do anything, because what’s the point?
Well, like I said, there are people who say you shouldn’t ACT happy. You should act like you’re LOSING, so you don’t get overconfident and watch as your side goes down in flames when you were sure they were going to win.
Face all developments with steely determination and a zen-like temperament.
I can’t do that though. I look ahead and I think about Romney’s objectively strong performance in past debates. I have huge expectations for the guy. Huge. This is a man who needs to turn things around without coming across as unlikeable and socially maladjusted. He knows that his supporters will look like fools if he acts like an out of touch glad-handling plutocrat who tries too hard to be your pal. I think he can act accordingly: I will be shocked otherwise. Shocked! It’s going to be a tough race, but ultimately I trust the American people to make draw upon their good sense and make the brave choice, the right choice, the choice that’s right for America, the choice that kills terrorists while keeping us out of pointless wars.
Never be complacent. Although the polls are in my guy’s favor, I’m not exactly dancing over here. A lot can still happen between now and Election Day. Folks over here are a lot cockier than I am considering our chances. While I think Obama is the favorite, I don’t think he’s a shoe-in. Remember, Bush won two elections, after all.
Strategy. If you’re ahead…work to get farther ahead. Try to pick up another battleground state. Try to widen the gap in states that look favorable.
If you’re WAY ahead, switch the emphasis to the House and Senate. (“Remember, everyone, your President can’t do it all without the Congress backing him up!”)
And pulykamell is absolutely right: don’t get complacent! The election can be lost on a single blunder. If Romney gets in a perfect zinger in a debate, and Obama is left stammering, you might lose Virginia and Ohio.
But, when you’re ahead, act like it. Do not pretend you’re really behind in order to energize your base. Proudly point to the polls showing you’re ahead – to energize your base – and then say, loudly and often, “But this isn’t enough!”
As a poster on a message board, it doesn’t matter a whit. For a campaign member or leader, it depends on context. At conventions, one will need to be ridiculously enthusiastic despite swingeing polls.
No side has a comfortable lead in this race (Rasmussen’s latest shows Romney 47%, Obama 46%) so I don’t think anybody need worry about complacency. This will probably be neck and neck right down to the wire. (Both sides got no real or lasting bounce from their conventions, which probably shows the public thought both of them pretty dire.)
You can stop right there. Rasmussen has zero credibility.
As an old football coach said, when you get 'em down, stomp on 'em. Keep pressing, keep the voter registration drives going, keep advertising, keep on the attack. Don’t let them up for a minute.
Change the scenario a bit. Say the Republicans didn’t adopt a strategy of economic sabotage: this is a new development after all. So the American Jobs Act passes in 2011, albeit with a fair amount of adjustment, military spending, tax cuts, etc. Unemployment declines to 7.4% which is still high, but income is growing. I based that scenario on the economic analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers. So instead of 538 giving Romney ~20% odds right now, he has 2% odds – though a landslide is not predicted. What would be the right response?
All Presidential elections are historical. So citizens, political hobbyists and news junkies should participate in them. In addition Senate and House races matter. Furthermore the margin of victory matters. Goldwater’s shellacking had profound effects on the Republicans for 16 years. Mondale and McGovern’s losses are still felt in Democrat circles to this day. And finally, these models are predicated on both sides giving a full court press. If either side let up, that would place them outside the historical experience and could lead to a surprise reversal.
Actually Rasmussen has some credibility. But they also have a “House effect” which tends to favor Republicans. There are a couple of polling outfits that outright fabricated evidence. Rasmussen isn’t one of those.