b, but close to c- something like a 50.5% to 49.5% popular vote margin, with about a 290-300 to 230-240 EV margin.
Obama has solid leads in enough swing states to put him over 270, plus he’s maintained the terrific ground game his team put together in 2008.
There will be grumbling by the losing side and a small amount of stupid and bad behavior, but things will move along- similar to 2004 (but perhaps slightly worse behavior by the losing side).
b/c, depending on how you define a clear EC victory. I think he’ll get something like 280-300.
Obama looks to have a solid enough lead in the necessary swing states.
Four more years of the past four years as far as the political climate’s concerned. Things will get a better in the economy, but not so much that it will be the roaring 10s.
Short answer essay questions
4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict? I think it will be VERY close. So my prediction on the winner is not a strong one. I think Romney’s momentum could continue / reassert itself, and he would need that to turn the tide.
If your prediction is correct, how will the public react? Even more of a partisan divide.
I think people are underestimating the race factor. Its gross, but still very much an issue for the generation that grew up hating blacks. My gut feeling is Obama will lose. I’ve had countless discussions devolve in to well he’s black with people who are all older then me when they’re arguments and their reasoning are showed to be flawed.
Ignoring all third-party candidates, who do you want to win? Obama
Which candidate do you think will win? Obama
Multiple choice question:
3. How big a margin of victory do you expect:
(c) Squeaker decided in the EC with no real mandate
Short answer essay questions
4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
To me, this election was honestly a repeat of 2004 again, you have a seemingly unpopular President (although the disdain is much less deserved this time around and based on other factors besides job performance IMO) running against a “anyone BUT Obama” Republican Candidate who is beloved by his base party and a few independents but most of their clamor for him is based on their disdain of the current President/Administration, rather than actual “love” of the candidate. In 2004 (when I was single,much more biased and less jaded) I thought Kerry wiped the floor with Bush in all 3 debates and most polls showed him in the lead prior to election day (or so I thought,like I said I was much more biased back then). Went to sleep (worked an overnight job) and woke up to see that Bush got 4 more years, in actual shock.
This year I expect roughly more of the same.
Wonder if Kid Rock or Hanky Panky Williams Jr. Is going to release a protest song/video on Election Day like how Eminmen did in 04…
5. If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
Similar to 2004’s reaction except reversed: You’ll have some “WTF” moments from Republicans who excepted Obama to lose in a landslide, perhaps a Fox news rant or two, a tepid or happy democratic camp and another membership swell in Stormfronter type websites…but by the next week, back to business as usual.These next 4 years are critical to Pres.Obama’s legacy though,more than the first four by far…
If your answer to question 3 was (E), what how do you think the election will be decided?
[/QUOTE]
Didn’t anwser 6, but some factors in the next few weeks would be any economic crisises that directly affects the U.S., A Global Scale Natural Disaster (Earthquake/Asteroid) or a Terror Attack on American Soil. In either of those cases, woundn’t it be postponed indefinitely, or would the incumbent be given a defaulted win?
Obama has a pretty solid firewall in the midwest right now and multiple paths to victory. Romney’s path is much much narrower.
Not too divisive after election, I don’t think. Obama is already our prez so that’ll just be status quo, and Romney isn’t all that well liked by his own side anyway.
Ignoring all third-party candidates, who do you want to win?
BHO
Which candidate do you think will win?
Romney
How big a margin of victory do you expect:
Either b or c
Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
Because of 2000 and 2004 outcomes, and because of voter suppression, and because of an ignorant populace that is buying the theory that BHO has been ineffectual (caused by obstructionism).
If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
Outrage from the Dems and gloating from the Pubs (with lots of crowing about mandates)
It’s going to be close, but Obama’s going to win OH, and he’s going to win NV (and probably IA, and very likely VA and CO and NH), and Romney’s not going to steal WI or PA. And that’s more than 270 votes.
I think Obama has far form Foreign Policy cred and it will show in the debate on Monday. I also think that Romney cannot maintain any momentum because quite simply he is not that good of a candidate. Also I thin there is a severe underestimation of the Hispanic vote this election, which will favor Obama.
Like they always do,left or right, outraged or befuddled their side lost. Grumbling about "unfair
things that happened. For the most part I think folks will accept it and then get on with their lives, probably thankful the election is over. What will be interesting is how the down ticket races end up. It is pretty clear that the Dems will keep the Senate, maybe even gain. and gain some in the House but probably only a dozen at most.
Obama is my gut, but I fear Romney b/c this country voted Bush in office…twice
b or c
13 keys to the White House, Nate Silver, Intrade, more likeable/trusted, too extreme R platform
not sure what the reaction will be other than just more R/W conspiracy spouting, hating and nastiness. If Romney wins (I shudder to think), I believe in less than 2 years, people like my dad will be hating on him even though they voted on him. I base this on my dad’s absolute loathing of Bush during his 2nd term. With that said, good ol’ boy Dad still voted for McCain in '08 due to his blind racism. Sigh…I am worried.
Romney has been playing from behind for the past 3 months, he’s pretty much peaked with the 1st debate (I don’t believe poll bumps from campaign events like the conventions or the debates really last), and Obama has far more paths to 270.
Pretty much status quo; the right will continue to block Obama at every turn, the left will be ineffective at promoting an agenda, and Obama will continue to govern as a technocrat. However, with the shifting demographics, this is probably the last election we’ll see where a party tries to win by targeting whites almost exclusively. Unless someone in the GOP figures out how to broaden the base, I predict Texas will be a blue state in 20 years.
Wow. I’m surprised. You seemed pretty confident, overly so I would say, in the Ohio thread and similar ones. The election has always been in play for Romney. To think otherwise is quixotic. As I’ve always said, remember, we elected and re-elected Bush, so anything is possible.
However, I would say there is room for optimism (if you’re leaning towards Obama.) I think it’s going to be a tough fight going to the gate, but Obama should have the edge. This doesn’t mean Romney doesn’t have a decent shot of winning it. That is completely possible, and not wholly improbable. But my money would be on Obama right now.
So, to answer the survey:
Obama
Obama
b
And I don’t have the energy for the essay questions right now.