Ah, the things I think of while being stood up by a tutorial student.
Six part poll. Three types of questions. For questions 1 & 2, please restrict your answers to the candidate’s last name only, and for questions 3 & 4, please restrict your answers to A, B, C, D, or E.
Dirty tricks involving electronic voting, voter suppression, and a llllllllloooooootttttttt of lawyers.
In part, with pure and dangerous rage. . There will be fears of riots in some cities, including the city where I live. Obama will speak out to calm his supporters, and, mostly, succeed.
There’s a history of democratic candidates snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and it’s because of their base. Lot of democrats are all talk, no vote when it comes to their “support” of a candidate. I suppose it’s laziness born of assuming that other voters will make an effort even though they don’t feel the need to, or the assertion that their one vote won’t count for much that flies in the face of states being won by just a few thousand votes. Far fewer people who claim to be republicans fail to vote.
The reaction will be the same regardless if I’m correct or not: those who don’t like the outcome will whine pitiously, claim the election was stolen - by those false registrations leading to absentee ballot voting if McCain loses, or vote count tampering if Obama loses - and if it’s the dem who lose large numbers will also continue to be to lazy to vote in 2012. Those who do like the outcome will gloat in an unbecoming way.
More grimly, by December of 2009 there will be at least one wing-nut who attempts to become the person infamous for killing what they’ll declare the first “nigger president” or first “cunt vice president” because either situation is likely to bring people who hate minorities or women (or both) out of the woodwork. Either way it’s going to be kind of scary for a while.
Because if I want Obama, a young untested Democrat to win,then there’s got to be a whole lot of other people who ordinarily wouldn’t vote Democrat going for Obama.
Intensely. Both with elation and some others with resignation.
(c) Squeaker decided in the EC with no real mandate
Obama is extremely inspirational to a lot of people and a lot of people love him. However, despite that, his lead over McCain is only slight. I don’t think that will change between now and election day.
I have no idea, but I have a feeling there won’t be any massive reaction from the public one way or the other.
2. Which candidate do you think will win?
Obama 3. How big a margin of victory do you expect: a
(a) Electoral college & popular vote landslide providing an unquestionable mandate to run things the candidate’s way
*4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict? *
Momentum is still on his side. Race usually tightens up last 15 days or so, instead the undecided seem to be breaking for Obama. I’m thinking he may even clear 400 in the EC.
5. If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
Mostly happy with the outcome, surprised at the magniture. Some very unhappy social conservatives. Nice things will be said about Senator McCain by the Dems though.
6. If your answer to question 3 was (E), what how do you think the election will be decided? (n/a)
As AHunter3 said, he’s ahead nationally and in a bunch of states, including many that haven’t voted for a Democrat since Johnson, and some that even Clinton only won once. McCain just plain doesn’t have enough time to turn this race around by his own efforts, only by some immense catastrophe, and given how poorly his campaign has been run I’m not sure he’d win even then. And the Wilder effect disappeared in the 90s; couple that with the unprecedented GOTV effort by the Obama campaign and I feel pretty sanguine about polls not overestimating his support.
A lot of people will be pleasantly surprised. Some are going to claim that ACORN stole the election without ever having any evidence to back that up cough Limbaugh, Coulter, Malkin cough. Some people who voted for McCain will shrug, having chosen what they thought was barely the lesser of two evils.
The polls point to it, but I’m also encouraged by a lot of anecdotal instances of people who were opposed to Obama for racial reasons earlier this year (by their own admission, not my guessing), who’ve switched and support him. McCain’s negative campaign hasn’t gotten the traction that (I assume) his people had expected, except among his base – which is nowhere near a majority of voters. Republicans are desperately hoping that the youth vote will not turn out, as usually happened, but the primary campaign showed that this year is actually different in that regard. Finally, Obama’s campaign is the most efficient and effective we have seen from Democrats in a very long time. In fundraising, in voter turnout, in handling issues that come up, they were a step ahead of Hillary all the way and have been ahead of McCain as well. Based on their record, I am confident they are well-prepared for anything that might happen on election day.
People will be fine, except for some of the diehards on the right who’ve been whipped into a frenzy lately about the impending collapse of America if Obama wins. It will be interesting to see if the Republican party reforms and grows up, or implodes to the point where they’re irrelevant for several election cycles.
Short answer essay questions
4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
Looking at the polls.
If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
Most will be satisifed, but the right wing will have fits.
If your answer to question 3 was (E), what how do you think the election will be decided?
A more obvious choice not indicated in the options: Obama wins by a small margin in the popular vote (5-8%) but by a big number in the Electoral vote. Since that’s the most common outcome historically, I’m surprised it wasn’t a choice.
Obama. Even though Obama is ridiculously clueless about the economy, and will likely inflict staggering damage to North America in the short term, the world cannot tolerate another term of Bush-like policies, which McCain would inevitably bring. I have a soft spot for McCain because of his Navy service, his war record, and his apparent willingness to be non-partisan when he believes in something. Unfortunately, he’s demonstrated some fundamentally poor judgment and espouses policies that will undermine American interests for decades to come.
Obama. A while ago, I really thought McCain had a chance. But, as his campaign has progressed, I see too much of his credibility frittered away on Palin, the debates and an inability to connect with Americans in general.
a. I don’t think that really needs any discussion.
I would prefer Senator Obama win. I stress, however, that I am not an American citizen; it is not my call, and if Senator McCain wins, that is the decision of the American people and theirs alone to make. I wouldn’t want Americans criticizing our choices except in a friendly way and that’s how my comment is meant.
Which candidate do you think will win?
It appears very likely that Obama will win.
How big a margin of victory do you expect:
I pick B. Obama will win between 306 and 340 electoral votes, and will win the popular vote by between 4 and 5.5 percent.
Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
Every informed statistical analysis calls for a result roughly approximating my predictions. Most actually call for a more dominant Obama victory; I believe this will be mitigated by Republican voter suppression efforts in one or more swing states.
If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
I think the American people will be mostly happy it’s over. Obama supporters will be elated, McCain supporters sullen and pissed off. Much will be made of the historical nature of a black man being elected President. The novelty will wear off within a year.
(b) Clear victory with less of a mandate--i.e, a clera electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote
That seems to be what the polls indicate. My only addendum, based on personal experience canvassing in a deep-South state, is that much of the South will be way closer than polls based on a likely-voter model are currently predicting.
Many people will be happy, some will be resigned, a small but vocal minority will go into attack mode.
May I add that the concept of a mandate is meaningless. Bush had nothing like a mandate, but managed to nearly destroy the country. A president in a time of war, or perceived war, has svirtually unlimited power, because Congress does not have the balss to play a meaningful oversight role.
Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
First, the polls are all in agreement that Obama leads by a cmofrtable margin. Second, Obama has much more money to spend on advertising in the final week. Third, Obama has many more workers and volunteers than McCain. Fourth, Democrats are energized and enthusiastic about their candidate, while Republicans are generally depressed on most of them never like McCain to begin with. Fifth, I don’t believe in the Bradley Effect. Sixth, I don’t believe that the Republicans are running any massive vote-stealing effort. Seventh, millions of people have already voted early, so it’s too late for McCain to win them back. Eighth, simply by watching this message board and the media, it seems clear that many former conservatives are supporting Obama, and there’s just no way for McCain to make it up.
If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
most Democrats will be decently happy. Some on the far left will quickly become disappointed when their agenda isn’t immediately put into law, and there will be some splintering. On the whole, though, the Democrats will keep their majority together.
The Republicans will be split. Intelligent ones will realize that this defeat was their own fault, while the fringe will start spreading bogus conspiracy theories about ACORN and such. But unlike others, I’m not really worried about any violence or long-term craziness. The right wing has a short attention span, and soon they’ll forget about the election and go back to their usual passtime of whining about the liberal media.
Bush is a Republican. Lots of people fear or hate Bush and therefore Republicans and therefore McCain. Fewer people (though still many) fear or hate Obama. I think the hate/fear Bush & McCain voters are more motivated and less conflicted than the hate/fear Obama voters. That and the whippersnapper vote should do it.
Much rejoicing, dancing in the streets, and drinking of fine liquors.
Now, you young’uns get the hell off my lawn and into your neighborhood polling places, you hear?!
