If the American public is capable of electing a black man president, Obama will win. I’m not American enough to tell you whether this is the case.
Myself, I’m rooting for Barack, but I’ve decided not to vote.
- Obama
- McCain
- c) Squeaker decided in the EC with no real mandate
- Because I feel I’ve seen this before. I couldn’t believe Bush would win either the first or the second one, but he did. In the end, a bunch of people will vote the way they’ve always voted.
- About a third of Americans will pump their fists over having had their superiority confirmed yet again. About a third of Americans will let out a huge sigh of resignation. About a third of Americans won’t give a shit. A significant portion of the rest of the developed world will go “Huh?”. No rioting, that’s ridiculous.
- Which candidate do you want to win?
McCain
- Which candidate do you think will win?
McCain
Multiple choice question:
3. How big a margin of victory do you expect:
(a) Electoral college & popular vote landslide providing an unquestionable mandate to run things the candidate’s way
(b) Clear victory with less of a mandate–i.e, a clera electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote
**© Squeaker decided in the EC with no real mandate **
(d) Supreme Court decision coming after weeks of litigation and providing no true mandate
(e) Something else I didn’t think of
Short answer essay questions
4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
Obama feels like a breath of fresh air, but I don’t know if he would be a good president (not that I think our current one did so hot, and I voted for him). I want to believe that the American public will look at the facts and not go on spin or gut feelings (look at McCain as the man he has been for decades and not what the ® party has him dressed up as right now, realize that a true Washington outsider would never in a million years be picked to be a convention keynote speaker, VPs are eyecandy at best, etc)…oh and sadly, the Bradley effect.
- If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
They won’t. It is the one thing about American politics that bothers me the most. In MA where I live the state government routinely ignores laws passed by voter referendum and the people do a whole lot of nothing. Except making sure the people that ignored their will get reelected. That is, if they vote at all. So short answer: “Really, that’s (great/too bad)…oh well, back to life.”
- If your answer to question 3 was (E), what how do you think the election will be decided?
N/A
-
Who cares - it’s one politician or another politician.
-
Obama.
-
A
-
Voters are incredibly stupid. I experienced this by being selected on a research group prior to the last Australian election. I loathe all politicians and was able to argue with everyone in the focus group regardless of who they supported because most of them had no idea what they were talking about. I came to the conclusion that most people should lose their right to vote. People were quoting Labor policy that was contrary to their policy published on their web site. Since the election I have delighted in pointing out to people that what they believed was all fairy dust and the reality was what I had said their policy was. I see much of this in Obama and his supporters. I think that, not far in the future, there will be money to be made selling bumper stickers saying “Don’t blame me I didn’t vote for Obama!”
-
Initially with pleasure, later with disappointment and anger.
-
Which candidate do you want to win?
Barr -
Which candidate do you think will win?
Obama -
How big a margin of victory do you expect:
B -
Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
Last time I checked, Obama was doing better than McCain in the polls, and McCain’s campaign has been so busy shooting itself in the foot I can’t see them recovering enough to win. -
If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
Some people will think it’s a historic moment , some people will be disappointed that a Democrat won.
Obama
Obama
Since I learned in this thread that a “landslide” has no specific meaning, I’m going with B, but I’ll call that a landslide.
Because Obama is way cooler. So cool in fact, that I as a Republican am voting for him.
Americans will come together as one- Blacks will be hugging whites, Jews and Arabs will embrace, Britney and K-Fed will reunite. It’ll be beautiful.
N/A
-
Obama
-
Obama
-
A (although I don’t think “popular vote landslide” has any meaning.)
-
I have a soft spot for McCain, but his campaign has been a freaking wreck. Nobody who runs such an inept campaign deserves to win. His pick of Palin to me was the turning point. I don’t trust him to make good choices anymore. To me, all this shows that his presidency would also probably be a wreck. Anyway, Obama is way more organized, is speaking to the American people in direct and honest way that we haven’t seen in a long time, and he has history on his side. I’ve been an Obama fan since 2004, and this is clearly his moment.
-
There will be much rejoicing. Hopefully, the Evil Faction of the GOP will crawl away under a rock somewhere and die. Palin included.
There’s a lot of evidence that this disappeared in the '90s, and may not have been a factor in the eponymous race; a week or two ago, the pollster for Deukmejian said that they had an upswell in the polls on the last couple of days, likely caused by a change in campaigning. Also remember that Obama overperformed the predictions in the primaries in several Southern states, and I wouldn’t be surprised if states like Mississippi and Georgia are a lot closer than the polls are showing even right now.
-
Obama
-
McCain
-
C
-
Mainly because of an email my uncle recently sent, explaining that he thought Obama was the better man for president, but as a white man he felt he was safest supporting a white candidate, as a black man might go against his interests. I’ve also been told by a woman I know that while she thinks Obama is the best choice, she thinks blacks will “riot in joy” if he’s elected. I worry there are a lot of people who may not admit to this same thought process publicly, but who will vote their race come election day.
-
Meh. Probably some whining about the election being “stolen” and then business as usual.
One-word-answer questions:
-
Which candidate do you want to win?
McCain -
Which candidate do you think will win?
Obama
Multiple choice question:
3. How big a margin of victory do you expect:
(b) Clear victory with less of a mandate–i.e, a clera electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote
Short answer essay questions
4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
I don’t, I’ve never got an election right yet. 50% right on who wins, but 100% wrong on margins of victory.
- If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
Most of the public won’t care, a few will moan and complain (and stock up on AR lowers), more will gloat and predict a utopian regime, everyone will go to work the next day.
-
Obama
-
Obama
-
B
-
Even taking things like the Bradley effect (if it even still applies) or election fraud into account, I feel like Obama’s lead is strong enough to carry him. Turnout will be huge, and I think that the youth vote is going to have an enormous effect on this election.
-
Obama supporters will, of course, be elated. There’ll be people who will be disappointed, and some who will probably be panic-stricken (a small minority), but I think most will be relieved that the whole thing is over and we can move onto other stuff. I don’t see rioting or massive emigration happening over this–whichever way it goes.
- Obama
- Obama
- B. But I’d still expect about a 300-350 EC win, though not the 375 landslide some pollsters are predicting.
- A lot of reasons but I’ll keep it to three.
–Polling is favoring Obama heavily at this point. On this date in the 2004 election, Bush was ahead on electoral-vote.com by 285-247. Now the same website has Obama ahead 375-157. A bit of a swing there. And a look at today’s map shows just how far McCain has to catch up. If Obama loses ALL the states which are not polling him with at least a 5% lead, he still wins 317-221. Even if you only count the states which he’s up by 10%, he still has 260 EVs. McCain has a long way to come back. That’s a hell of a lot of “voter suppression” to do (and, as the 2004 map shows, it certainly wasn’t “voter suppression” alone that caused Kerry to lose)
–For all the hand-wringing, Bush almost lost in 2004. Simply put, McCain can’t afford to lose more than one or two Bush states and win the election. None of the Kerry states look like turning red, and at least two Bush states (Iowa and New Mexico) look like lost causes. The Kerry states + IA + NH = 263 EVs, which means Obama has to only win one battleground state. McCain has to win Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, and North Carolina to win. He’s behind in the polls in every one of those states.
–I know it’s anecdotal, but I know a number of people who voted Bush in 2004 who are voting Dem this year. Almost all of these people are pro-life. With the economy and the war in Iraq it seems like abortion is a very minor issue this time around. McCain won’t win if the pro-life “issue voters” stay home or vote for his opponent. As I say, the 2004 was too close for McCain to lose even a fraction of that constituency. - Quietly. I get the sense that some McCain supporters will loudly blame others (the media and Palin especially) for the GOP loss, but it won’t last long. I think the GOP will try to come back strong in 2010. Their success or failure will depend on what they’ve learned from 2008.
Obama
Obama
Somewhere between A & B
I don’t think so many polls over so long are going to be so wrong, and to the extent they could be, they seem more likely to understate Obama’s support (through LV screens and not accounting for the ground game, not to mention of the “Reverse Bradley Effect” that some have noted in the primary results in several states) than McCain’s (the Bradley Effect, which doesn’t seem to have applied to any election recently, nor the primaries). I have no faith that the Republicans won’t try to suppress the vote in several states, but Obama is competitive in too many for the election to come down to this.
Plus, the Democrats are sure to be the beneficiary, through some sort of means that defies easy explanation, as well as common sense, of all the hundreds, even thousands, of phony registrations ACORN got them.
I predict much wailing and general hysteria from the Usual Suspects in the right-wing nutcase media, which will hopefully drive them further into the fringes of decency. I mean, really, who could take, say, Michelle Malkin seriously after she looses whatever thin thread is keeping her as calm and complacent as she currently is. And Hugh Hewitt’s commentary will descend from a very skewed view of reality to pretty much discussion of a fantasy land.
Oh, there will be great hilarity in this land. Then, the reasonable among us will have to figure out how to repair the damage of the whole sordid affair that has been the Bush Administration. That part won’t be nearly as much fun.
I think Obama will win in a landslide. McCain started out strong but he’s fizzling out. Palin was a big mistake. And he’s got the “R” stamped next to him, which isn’t a selling point these days.
Oh, and he’ll be a one-term President because: a) He’s too honorable to make a great President; (remember how effective Jimmy Carter was?) ; b) The next President is screwed before he ever takes office, no matter who he is. The world is in for some rough times ahead. And Americans love to blame the President for all their woes.
1. Which candidate do you want to win? Obama
2. Which candidate do you think will win? Obama
3. How big a margin of victory do you expect: (b) Clear victory with less of a mandate–i.e, a clera electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote
4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict? I think Obama will lose some “last second” voters. Maybe some on the fence will panic and go McCain.
5. If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
With much celebration. I will not be the least big disappointed if I underestimate Obama’s margin of victory. A resounding victory will be great to combat the “not MY President” crowd.
-
Dunno. All the candidates with truly appealing platforms seem to get clobbered less than halfway through the primaries, and yet again I don’t see a liberal anywhere (Nader used to be one, but unfortunately he’s turned into just another cranky geezer desperately trying to get someone, anyone, to listen to him). Whoever has the job for at least the next 20 years has a ton of work to do. Is anyone who can win a nomination up to it? Beats me.
-
Obama
-
Between A and B.
-
Obama was ahead to begin with, and he’s been steadily pulling away since. McCain in '08 is looking more and more like Dole in '96. When appealing to racism is your last hope, you know you’re in deep.
Yes, Democrats have screwed up royally in the past. Thing is, Obama learned from each of those debacles and is doing things right this time. In fact, you could argue that McCain banked on this history too much and was completely unprepared for an opponent who would land the first punch and never let up.
Even American stupidity and ignorance has limits. The '06 midterms proved that. It’ll keep it from turning into a complete blowout, but it won’t be enough to swing it to McCain.
- A huge section of America will rejoice that we’ve finally come to our senses and stopped giving the party of corporate greed, fundamentalism, and endless wars a blank check. Congress will be fired up to get things done for the first time in eternity. Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and the rest of the right wing mouthpieces will quietly cash out and retire. The liberal writers are sure to have some wonderfully eloquent essays and speeches about the new era. (I’m especially looking forward to Michael Moore’s; mark my words, it’s going to be a doozy.) And then, of course, Barack Obama will look at the unspeakable mess he’s inhereted, sigh, shake his head, and reluctantly get to work.
What I’m really looking forward to is the old school small-government-and-respect-for-our-veterans Republicans…the REAL Republicans…rising up and taking their party back. For years we’ve all had to put up with the crap of winning excusing everything and anything, every horrible policy decision, every billion poured into an unsolvable quagmire, every abuse of power, and responsible Republicans were as much a victim of this mindless arrogance as their opponents. This is their chance to throw the fundies, chickenhawks, goldbrickers, and race baiters against the wall and return what was GOOD about Republicanism back to the party.
- Which candidate do you want to win?
Obama - Which candidate do you think will win?
Obama - How big a margin of victory do you expect:
(b) Clear victory with less of a mandate–i.e, a clear electoral college victory but a much closer popular vote - Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?
All the polls seem to suggest at least a 7% lead overall, and a huge victory EC wise. - If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?
Obama fans will rejoice, McCain fans will be disappointed, bigots will shit their pants.