Gut feeling: how will the American presidential election turn out?

Politics & Elections
21

Not buying the good numbers of recent days, then?

Anyway, if I understand what he said right (from what others have said about it), isn’t his argument that Obama won’t win handily and that Romney won’t win in a squeaker? That if either win, it will be close for Obama or big for Romney? That doesn’t necessarily, on its face, translate into lack of confidence for Obama.

22
  1. Ignoring all third-party candidates, who do you want to win?

Obama

  1. Which candidate do you think will win?

Obama

Multiple choice question:
3. How big a margin of victory do you expect:
© Squeaker decided in the EC with no real mandate
Romney will take Florida, Iowa, Virginia & Colorado and Obama will win 271-267

Short answer essay questions
4. Why do you think things will turn out as you predict?

Obama still has the Democratic base, but there’s much less enthusiasm from the kinds of “don’t usually vote” types who came out for him in 2008.

  1. If your prediction is correct, how will the public react?

Tea Party types will loudly howl with unsubstantiated allegations about how the election was stolen through massive voter fraud because voter ID laws were overturned by liberal activist judges.

23

No, this board doesn’t lean left.

24

So it’s our fault that the conservatives haven’t been posting to this thread? :slight_smile:

25

Is there anyone who seriously contends, that in the scheme of American politics, this board isn’t left-leaning?

26

Communists, pinkos, European socialists, outside agitators, China, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt, France, California, the Eastern Liberal Establishment, … and Hollywood.

27

What am I, chopped liver? :smiley:

28
  1. Romney
  2. Romney
  3. C
  4. Obama has largely disappointed the youth vote that helped him win last time. I expect them to stay home in large numbers this year. Romney seems to be gathering steam, hitting his peak right as election day is in sight.
  5. I expect much moaning and gnashing of teeth from the liberals on this board. It will be a joy to behold. The country as a whole will get on with business as usual. And we may have a brief 6 month or so interval where there is some degree of optimism about the future.
29
  1. Obama
  2. Obama
  3. b
  4. Despite the hand-wringing at this point, the upswing is that Democrats might not be as complacent as they have been in the past few months and get off their asses and vote. Already, some early voting has shown a far larger group of Democrats going to the polls than even last time around. Nothing gets out the vote like a little bit of fear - and the thought that Romney might actually have a chance is all the fear Democrats need to make sure this doesn’t happen.
    Plus, call me a cynic, but I truly believe the media (and yes, even the liberal media) likes to shake things up and call every election “a close one”, so people will continue to tune into their broadcasts. Yes, it does appear that polls are tightening, but Obama’s reelection committee has been quite clever in spending more money in getting the ground support of “get out the vote” troops set up in all of the swing states.
    Remember the rosy predictions of just a few weeks ago, with Obama taking Florida and Virginia and maybe even North Carolina, along with Ohio, Iowa and most of the other swing states? I won’t be surprised to see that happen - yeah, maybe by squeaker amounts, but watch what happens in the polls those last few days, and watch how the press reacts to the sudden upsurge in support for Obama.
30

Florida will be a total screaming clusterfuck of galactic proportions. Battalions of lawyers will come raining down in a billable hours feeding frenzy. Remember the Brooks Brothers Riot?

You ain’t seen nothing yet. Texas will probably be a little better. A campaign of disinformation in Pennsylvania is brewing nicely. Ohio Republicans have utterly debased themselves, dropping the last shreds of credibility in their effort to stop the wrong sort of people from exercising their so-called “rights”.

If it works, and it very will may, tighty righty Dopers will be right down here for their happy dance, crowing about the “will of the people”. The honest conservatives here will be thoroughly ashamed but they might both be too busy.

31

:rolleyes:

So it’s just not possible for Romney to win an honest election, huh?

:rolleyes:

32

No.

33

  1. Obama

  2. Obama

  3. b

  4. Obama is maintaining his Electoral College lead in state polls. I think Romney’s had his best chance to pull ahead convincingly, and it’s not happening. Advantage to the incumbent. Although the economy is recovering slowly, it IS recovering, and I think a majority of Americans realize that the GOP’s narrative about the economy is utter bullshit. Lastly, Romney’s “Not Obama” platform isn’t going to be any more successful than Kerry’s “Not Bush” platform was.

  5. I think there’s a growing awareness in the public that GOP’s plan to primarily serve the needs of old, rich, white men is different than serving the needs of the nation as a whole. There will be relief that the election is over, optimism for the future, and hopefully (a man’s gotta hope) some soul-searching in the GOP. The GOP must adapt or die. The sooner they realize this, the better off the nation will be; the old, rich, white guy hegemony won’t last forever; demographics are against it.

In short, most Americans think Obama deserves to be reelected, and most people will be happy when he is.

34

I’m looking closely, see if I said any such thing. Nope. Anyway, doesn’t appear to be me who lacks faith in the Republican candidate.

35

I don’t have a gut feeling for this one. All I’m sure of is that Obama has a far tougher fight on his hands than he or his supporters thought possible 6 months ago.

36

Feel free to answer the question as posed by the OP. Or post some snark - your call.

As for me…

  1. Obama
  2. Obama
  3. b. Much closer than last time in both EC vote and pop vote
  4. Romney would have to sweep too many close states to win. The last debate was OK for him, but he needs more than OK. Obama’s ground game is strong.
  5. The public will mostly accept it and move on. Business as usual. Talk
    radio and Fox news will be thrilled, because they’ll have lots to complain about, and complaining is pretty much what they love to do.
37

This board also leans in the direction of intelligent, well-educated, well-informed people.

Coincidence? I think not.

38

Personally, I’ve always been worried. Maybe things are looking tougher than they were 3-6 weeks ago…but that was a relative high point.

Oh…and my vote is

  1. Obama

  2. Obama, but not something I say confidently

  3. (c) Squeaker decided in the EC with no real mandate

  4. Just going by what the best analysis by Nate Silver and the like seems to suggest

  5. In the bi-polar way as the electorate is currently.

39

Conventional political wisdom is such that he really should have no chance whatever. Perhaps if the Republicans had put forth their best candidate… Oh, wait, they did, didn’t they?

40

No. I think a lot of the stronger candidates stayed out of the race this year, preferring to run in 4 years when they won’t be facing an incumbent. JMO, of course.