Ages ago there was a Great Debates thread discussing the likelihood of the US attacking Iran. Several people not only found it very likely but damn near certain. Bricker disagreed and offered to bet all-comers that he was right.
Enter me. I hadn’t yet posted in the thread, but I felt that a US-Iran conflict was in the cards, and none of the posters in the thread were prepared to put their money where their mouths were. So I did. I bet Bricker $100 that the US military would overtly attack Iran prior to January 20th 2009.
Well, it’s January 20th 2009 (it is here anyway, you Yanks will have to wait a few more hours), and unless I am severely out of touch no attack has occurred. I officially owe Bricker $100. I’ve been sure for quite a long time that this would be the outcome, and I’m much happier this way than if I had won and there had been another damn fool war. I remember thinking after the 2006 elections that that was it; there would be no attack.
So why did I think so at the time? Well, the US was in Iraq, I was scared, and it seemed like the Bush administration was crusading against the world. I still believe that if Iraq had gone better there would have been a reasonable chance that Iran would have been attacked eventually, but it’s not the kind of chance I would bet money on. In short, the world appeared to be changing rapidly and unpleasantly and I got carried away. Bricker did not.
Bricker: I’m damn glad I lost. Email me or send a private message to work out the transfer of money.
Mayhap you’re right, but it started here and damnit I’m going to try and end it here. Anyway, you know that someone will start discussing why Iran wasn’t attacked, if it was ever probable that it would be, what would have happened if Nyarlathotep had sent Bush an I-dare-you email and so forth.
While I am not one to bet on wars, my thinking pretty much mirrored yours, Priceguy. And I also echo your sentiments, glad you lost and glad as well that Bricker will enjoy some smooth single-malt of his choice without yet another war in full boil.
Tristan, not doing a search, but what your thinking of is Lib’s offer to pseudo rubber rubber (sp?). They’ve since mended fences (or so it seems) and the latter is back on board.
I’ve offered that same bet countless times; never had a serious taker. I note there was a story about a week ago that the Bush Administration actually stiff-armed Israeli requests for assistance in Israel attacking Iran.
I did not put money on the line, but I make this post in this [thread=452221]thread[/thread]. (Um, I was really living up to my Dopername there, so can we just 1,$s/Iraq/Iran/g and let me be embarrassed? :smack: Thanks.)
I thought that Duh-bya would start a war with Iran for sure. He seemed THAT stubborn and disconnected from reality. Also, Cheney wanted it, and what Cheney wanted, Cheney got - end of story.
So I freely admit my prediction was wrong, and I am hugely relieved. I’d love to know who talked Dubya out of attacking Iran. That person should get a Presidential Medal of Freedom! 'Cause, for a while there an attack of some kind on Iran looked like a “slam dunk”. :shudder:
Say, do we know whether Scooter Libby has a pardon, or am I zero for two? Oh for two you say? Typical.
I lost money in 2003 when I predicted W could not be so utterly stupid as to attack Iraq without UN approval. He has subsequently shown to be a hundred times stupidder than I ever imagined at that time. Some people saw it earlier than I did.
