Bricker, are we on or not?

Bricker, over a year ago you offered a bet on whether the US would attack Iran or not. I took the bet, but you never responded. I pointed that out, and you asked me to refresh your memory, and added that we were “not on for any bet unless I’ve positively acknowledged it”. I refreshed your memory, but again you didn’t respond. I assumed we were off. A month ago, you seemed to indicate that we were on after all. I asked for clarification but didn’t receive a response.

I’m not trying to weasel out of the bet (in fact, if I’m wrong and the US doesn’t invade Iran I’ll be happy enough that I will consider the $100 a very small price to pay indeed), but I would like unambiguous confirmation of whether we are on or not. I would email you, but your address isn’t in your profile, so this thread is my last attempt.

So: If I haven’t received an unambiguous reply along the lines of “Yes, Priceguy, the bet is definitely on” in this thread prior to May 17th 2006, I will consider the bet to be off and I will not pay out nor demand any money come January 2009. I think that’s fair under the circumstances.

Yes, Priceguy, the bet is definitely on.


For those of us watching at home:
Bricker says the US will overtly take action against Iran, we’ll at least blow something up using a bomb with our logo on it.

Priceguy says, “Nu-uh!”

To clarify, for the INVASION to have taken place, we don’t necessarily need American boots tramping all over Iran, we just need to blow something up in Iran without her permission.

That it?

You got the bet the wrong way around (Bricker is the one saying “nu-uh”), but apart from that it sounds about right.

Priceguy says the US will overtly take action against Iran, we’ll at least blow something up using a bomb with our logo on it.

Bricker says, “Nu-uh!”
Ok…of course, you realize you’re both going to be wrong. I don’t know how, but Bush will find a way to make this not be a black & white operation. Couple questions.

If one or more of the 200+ Iranian martyr volounteers delivers a package to US oil and Iran thumbs her nose at us and says, “Yeah! There’s more where that came from! Bring it on, infidel!” does that count as “permission” to invade Iran?

And what if something blows up–say, a nuclear reactor innocently located in a hardened underground bunker–because it was hit with a tactical nuke bunker buster (which Bush promises the US would never use in a first strike)? And this happens in October of 2008, and the US officially denies culpability. But then in August 2009 it Cheney has to come out and say, “Oh that explosion in Iran? Well yes, we did that. But we thought it was a baby milk formula factory.”

Are we going by the date of the event? Or are we going by when the administration is forced to admit responsibility? In which case, how will anyone really know when the bet is over? Because something is going to blow up in Iran.

Wow 100 Priceguy!! Now granted this might seem like a somewhat chunky sum to mere pobes like myself, but is is interesting to see the how the "big dogs" like you and Bricker play. Guys who laughlingly light their barbecue grills with with 20. bills and use Laphroaig single malt as lighter fluid.


Obviously not, in my view. The bet says nothing about whether Iran started it or not.

If there is “credible evidence of the action, reports in major US media” prior to January 20th 2009, I win. Otherwise, Bricker wins. If Cheney admits culpability later, I won’t be asking for any money back. But I’ll feel better.

Hey, if you want to borrow some money, all you gotta do is ask.

Nice Pit reference!

(bolding added)

I’m not involved in this, but I’m confused about something. Maybe I’m just dense, but shouldn’t the “no invasion” bet pay off in 2009, not 2005? Especially since the 2005 date has passed?

It’s either a typo or some kind of incredibly devious legalistic trick. I’m leaning towards the former.

I would also like to participate in this bet (on the side of Bricker) - I can provide all needed details to PriceGuy by PM/Email - are you on?

Priceguy can I get a mention when you post your victory thread? I’m a bit attention starved.

Bricker can we agree on a “you were right” thread in a serious tone, when the bet is concluded? I’d write one in response to all opponents on that thread with you mentioned specifically, and you’d write one to the proponents in the thread with myself and Priceguy mentioned specifically? Or is that asking too much?

If you’d read the links in my original post, you’d already know the answer to that question.

You mean if I post my victory thread. I believe I will win, but I am by no means certain (how could I possibly be?), and I mainly took the bet because damnit, someone had to put their money where other people’s mouths were.

But sure, I’ll mention you. In some capacity. Somewhere. In some font and type size.

Of course. The thing that produces over-the-top bragaddocio after winning a bet is over-the-top hyperbole before the bet.

When a guy says, in essence, that he’s looked at the situation and the odds, and thinks he’s picked a good bet… but acknowledges he’s not sure… then there’s nothing to crow about.

If, on the other hand, this proposition had been filled with “There’s no way we won’t nuke Iran!” rhetoric then the result of winning a bet about not nuking Iran is a bit more unrestrained.

Sorry if I’m being really thick, but where?

Sorry if I’m being really thick, but where? (I did read them… )

Oh, and Bricker, I might be interesting in buying some betting options from you (i.e. so I can sell my $100 stake to other dopers for, say, $110)…