Now begins the time when the pre-war predictions made by the War Eagles and the Timid Doves come home to roost. Let’s keep score as we go…
Dove Prediction # 1: * Going to war during this economic recession will drop market prices dramatically and deepen our economic troubles.*
Event # 1 : Anticipating President Bush’s announcement of war tonight, The Dow jumped almost 300 points today. Gains were made pretty much across the board except for the recording company that handles the “Dixie Chicks”. Their stocks dropped by some thirty-four percent.
Stock market climbs are not indicative of the overall economy. Meteroic rises and falls will highlight this war as it progresses but the nations economy will hinge on the peoples confidence to buy more stuff which causes factories to build more stuff which causes more money to buy even more stuff.
this 300 point climb can just as easily be taken back by friday.
Of course you are right,** X~Slayer(ALE)** , do you not get it? Real economic effects were never the object of the Peacer-pacifiers predictions. The idea was to scare, don’t-you-know.
Well, actually & literally- no. Stock market ups and downs are exactly that; “indicative” of the overall economy. They are ONE indicator of many.
Thus- the Dow climb is a “good sign”. But indeed, it is just that- it could go down just as much, or even more. One day isn’t much of a trend by any means.
My prediction? Good for the Dow, bad for Oil prices, good for Gold. Until it is over, then the opposite (unless the oil fields get taken out or sabotaged). But- the “war” (if and when it really happens) will be really short.
Hmm…“Cite?” you say. Hmm…I remember back when people didn’t have to cite, they thought. But if you insist I’ll gather you some examples from the wild, screaming, raving, sloganeering and knee-jerk chants of the New Age Nevillians seen nightly on MTV and regular TV.
I have long since given up on what these Peaceniks are really after. Its because of them that I got pushed in the warmongering side because little of what they predict makes sense, so i figured, if the peacniks are wrong then the other side is right. Boy was that a mistake. The warmongering side, if they are right are pretty damn smug or inane about this whole issue. Its not about Bush, Its about Saddam. The more you focus on Bush, the more everyone forgets what Saddam is really like.
So, as I understand it, here are the consequences of a war with Iraq.
A) the USA will be a rogue nation shunned by everyone within the UN.
B) there will be a drastic and deadly increase of terrorist acts gainst the US
C) The people of the Middle East will rise up against the US
D) The economy will suffer under the heavy burden of the cost of war.
E) GW Bush will be so unpopular, he’ll never get re-elected.
F) There will be thousands and thousands of US military casualties and countless civilians lives lost.
G) This war will be Mogadishu multiplied a million fold. This war will last far to long to be won.
Plus there are all the “selfish” reasons to go to war.
aa) The Oil will be controlled by GW Bush and/or his closest friends
bb) The United States will have a puppet govt in Iraq.
cc) we’re doing this for Isreal.
dd) This is all just revenge for the attempt on GW Bush’s daddys life.
If this is like reality TV, can we vote the OP off the island?
I don’t know RTFirefly, what’s a OP?
Bye-the-bye, RT, do you have any predictions about the war rather than your rather mild humor, to share with us so as to demostrate on record your brilliant insight into the bigger world?
You know, there have already been several ‘prediction’ threads. I’m not sure we need another one.
How the U.S. is perceived from here on in depends on two things: 1. How well the war goes, and 2. How the Bush administration deals with the peace.
I predict the war will go very well. Minimal loss of life, massive defections and surrenders by the Iraqi military, and plenty of evidence after the fact of weapons of mass destruction, atrocities against Iraqi citizens, AND French involvement in re-arming Saddam in violation of the U.N. sanctions. That will defang the anti-war protestors.
As for how the Bush administration handles the peace, there are two aspects: How well reconstruction in Iraq goes, and whether a Democracy will emerge, and how the U.S treats the rest of the world after a large and visible success in Iraq.
I think the peace will go well. Apparently, the Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds have already signed documents agreeing to form a confederation of a unified, democratic Iraq with broad autonomy for the three regions. And don’t forget, the Kurds have already built a nascent democracy over the last ten years which is relatively prosperious and peaceful, under the protection of the United States and Britain.
The big question, to me, is how the U.S. treats the rest of the world after this. If the Bush administration uses this opportunity to slam the French and start issuing decrees, that would be a bad thing. On the other hand, if the U.S. shows a serious desire to engage with the rest of the world diplomatically, things will turn out fine.
At least until this whole mess starts up again over North Korea.
You know Sam, the other day I was watching a documentary on Iran. In it was an interview with a lovely gentleman who is one Iran’s senior Supreme Court judges - a very worldly and well spoken, elegant looking gentleman in his early 60’s. And please don’t underestimate this chap. Apparently he’s the Number One judge in the land.
The Judge made a comment which I found most illuminating… and to paraphrase…
“Why do the Americans insist on this paranoia hyperbole regarding Iran? To include us in this so-called ‘Axis of Evil’ is preposterous. Surely the Americans must be aware that the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan was due in no small part in our ability to help and organise the Northern Alliance into siding with the American forces? Surely, the Americans must realise that if they would only stop behaving like John Wayne towards Iran for just one week, then they would realise that Iran can be of extraordinary assistance to America. And most importantly, that Iran and America has many, many common interests in the region…”
You know Sam, the other day I was watching a documentary on Iran. In it was an interview with a lovely gentleman who is one Iran’s senior Supreme Court judges - a very worldly and well spoken, elegant looking gentleman in his early 60’s. And please don’t underestimate this chap. Apparently he’s the Number One judge in the land.
The Judge made a comment which I found most illuminating… and to paraphrase…
“Why do the Americans insist on this paranoia hyperbole regarding Iran? To include us in this so-called ‘Axis of Evil’ is preposterous. Surely the Americans must be aware that the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan was due in no small part in our ability to help and organise the Northern Alliance into siding with the American forces? Surely, the Americans must realise that if they would only stop behaving like John Wayne towards Iran for just one week, then they would realise that Iran can be of extraordinary assistance to America. And most importantly, that Iran and America has many, many common interests in the region…”
Sam Stone-I predict the war will go very well. Minimal loss of life, massive defections and surrenders by the Iraqi military, and plenty of evidence after the fact of weapons of mass destruction, atrocities against Iraqi citizens, AND French involvement in re-arming Saddam in violation of the U.N. sanctions. That will defang the anti-war protestors
You’re lucky. My predictions never seem to coincide with my wet dreams.
I predict any evidence of French re-arming will be buried as I suspect it’s likely at least one American company would also somehow be tied in.
For yuks I’ll go on the record with X~Slayer(ALE)'s B)&C). A) will depend on how the US divies up the country (i.e. oil). I just don’t see how much lower US reputation can sink outside the first world. G) will probably happen but it will be taken out of the news rotation after a while and give the illusion of dwindling out.
They are going to have to be very careful about the optics on aa).
Interesting that the OP doesn’t make any predictions when doing such a swaggering call out.
I presume you are referring to that conference of exiles in London or wherever it was a while back? Not only did they not agree with each other on anything beyond the most vague principles, but there’s no particular reason to think that a bunch of exiles are going to be the prime movers on the ground in a post-Saddam Iraq.
I hope to god you’re right about the peace, and maybe I’m unnecessarily pessimistic, but I can’t see how your position is anything other than naive optimism.
Interesting that the OP doesn’t make any predictions when doing such a swaggering call out. ~ Caarnalk
Oh. Now I get it. The OP you refer to is me. What a gas!
But don’t yall know that Sam Stone has good clear thoughts. Although Sammy Baby said…
You know, there have already been several ‘prediction’ threads. I’m not sure we need another one. ~ Sam Stone
Hey Sammy Baby, just who, in fact, is the imperial “we”?
Who is this “we” that determines our fate.
