NYT article (might be behind paywall): MIT researchers project that by the end of next year, India will be the worst-hit nation in the world, surpassing the USA and Brazil.
So much for American exceptionalism.
By the end of 2021? Has anyone gotten anything right with this virus with projections past, say, a month out?
I’m afraid India is going to be difficult to count, I can’t imagine that tracking cases and deaths is going to be accurate, especially when it really takes off and overwhelms the authorities.
I would not be predicting India further than a couple of months at best, only prediction that could be made is as a worst case scenario or close to it.
Perhaps that is the underlying message - because India’s medical infrastructure and administration may be unable to cope and data will no longer be accurate.
Idiot American politicians say “Challenge accepted!”
Actual paper for those interested. Key part of the abstract
However, future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission. Absent breakthroughs in treatment or vaccination and with mildly improved responses we project 249 (186-586) million cases and 1.75 (1.40-3.67) million deaths in the 84 countries by Spring 2021.
Anyone publishing projections for more than a year away should be mortally embarrassed as sensationalist hacks.
Not even a little bit. Write them up, place the error bars and assumptions in there and build a model. Iterate as you go.
It’s better to say anyone relying on unchanging projections should be mortally embarrassed as a blinkered hack.
Oh bullshit. I don’t blame researchers for running these projections but they are utterly useless to the general population or decision makers.
Then I suppose a paper specifically listed on a platform for the dissemination of early-stage research meets your criteria.
And yes feel free to yell at the NYT for mentioning it.
I just did, thanks.
They have an ICU bed capacity of 2.3 per 100,000 compared to Italy which has 12.5 per 100,000. I used Italy as an example of a country that was hard hit.
Given the infrastructure issues with power,water and sewage it would land hard.
Urgh just been watching a BBC report on the Covid situation in India and it’s heartbeaking - they are outside a hospital in Delhi, where the healthcare is probably as good as anywhere in the country, and the scene is can only be described as chaos. The report shows a woman dying in an ambulance as it ran out of oxygen, another man dies on a trolley in front of the camera in a room packed with dozens of other trolleys packed together with suffering patients, dozens of people stand outside the entrance shouting for doctors to help with loved ones that the hospital does not have space to admit.
I haven’t got a link to that particular report but this article is recent:
India reported over 315,000 new cases today. And no doubt they are many many more untested.
On a call with coworkers in Bangalore today they described the situation in great detail. It sounded pretty awful and didn’t look like it would be getting better anytime soon.
The abject poverty there probably will make things bad and their numbers are rising but on a per capita basis, daily cases are about the same as the US right now. Total cases, it’s not even close with the US close to ten times.
Is there any international help on-hand or at least in the immediate future? I’m thinking especially of the oxygen issues because while it’s a rough situation overall, I think there are plenty of overseas institutions (various armed forces, various multinational firms) with the ability to jerry-rig (jury-rig?) emergency O2 supply systems in India.
Getting the proper expert medical care and personnel will not be easy, in part because that involves scarce specialized labor and facilities. OTOH, do Indians really need to be suffocating because they lack access to something as basic as supplemental O2?
When I talk to my coworker in Pune, who is working from home, I can hear the sirens from the ambulances going by his home. It is sometimes one after the other. And he’s not that close to the hospitals (there are 5 in his district).
Another coworker is in the hospital, another has just left a quarantine center. Every person who lives there, or has lived there, knows multiple people who have died, is in the hospital or in a quarantine center.
And it’s worse since the festivals in the last two weeks, and because of certain politicians who are ignoring the science (mentioned in the article linked above).
Due to the vaccine shortages, they are not able to vaccinate people fast enough.
There is no logical reason for the shortage of oxygen. They’ve had ample time to import it. The state of Kerala demonstrated this by monitoring demand in it’s region and stockpiling it. There should have been a national effort to take care of this along with other shortages such as ventilators. It’s a nation more than capable of large scale production of products.
India really dropped the ball on this.