#3 is dependent on the person. If it was me, I’d say Definitely Impossible, as I know I could put myself in a state of mind where I said ‘No’ without even thinking about what you said, just as a reaction to hearing you say something, but I imagine there are some people who would give some kind of audible cue in the way they said ‘no’.
#2 might be possible, but I would try to throw you by voluntarily widening my eyes, flaring my nostrils, or giving some other subtle cue on the wrong number.
No offense, but including some sort of reasoning/speculation with the survey answer makes for more interesting reading for the other participants in the thread. Also, I don’t see how I could decide DI or DP without first mulling over possible methods, anyway, so no harm in including my logic. So, my answers, with explanations (nyah!):
DP I’d believe that one’s pulse could indicate a reaction to the correct number.
DP I’d believe that pupil dilation could indicate a reaction to the correct number.
DP I’d believe that tone of voice could indicate a reaction to the correct number.
DP, depending on the set-up. I’d believe that you could gather some clues from a person’s hesitation when you ask “are you ready?” or something, particularly since I imagine some numbers are much more popular than others (does anyone really pick zero?). Even moreso if you ask a few other questions (“are you sure?” “you have one in mind?”), etc. I would expect a lower accuracy here than in the previous tests, though.
ianzin,* request for clarification*:
Also, question: Do you perform all these tests sequentially, or only one in any given seminar? I could see number four being a whole lot easier to perform if you did 1-3 right beforehand.
For the purposes of the survey, assess each claim in isolation, as if that was the only demonstration you witnessed or took part in. So, for number four, assess it as if none of the other three have preceded it.
Many thanks again to all who take part. We’re nearly halfway to the magic 50!
Keep in mind it would take a lot of practice to detect such minute changes in pulse, face, and voice to get to be able to do it. And there are people who would be able to fool you (there are people who can fool polygraphs, after all). But if you’re talented and your subject is a patsy, they’re all DP except the last.
I would think, regarding number #3, that the subject could simply say “no” everytime you made any utterance, essentially “blocking out” the fact that you’re listing off numbers and simply responding to the sound of your voice. Hence it wouldn’t matter when you said his/her number, because he/she wouldn’t actually be listening for it. (At least, that’s how I’d respond if I was your subject.)
DP – you’re essentially a human lie detector. You’re looking for a reaction and assume that the biggest reaction will be to the number chosen. That will work a little less often than a polygraph, assuming you’ve had lots of practice at it. I’d bet that there are people who won’t react to their number or even deliberately overreact to one they didn’t choose.
DP – you’re playing poker now, looking for the “tells”.
DP – assuming that most people would waver a little bit when telling a lie, you could find the chosen number frequently enough to be more than pure luck. But as in #1 (and even #2), some people can mask their responses.
DI – I seriously doubt you’d have a success rate much greater than 10%
1 - guess number from pulse – DP
2 - guess number from facial reactions - DP
3 - guess number from verbal responses - DP
4 - guess number from intuition/ESP - NI
(stats might be with you on this)
Depends on how observant you are & if your participants have good “poker faces” or not.
I can’t imagine myself as the subject (see below for why). So I consider the
situation to be that I videotape multiple tests (using the same set-up every time). I find that in 75% of the tests, you guessed the number correctly. I have no reason to suspect the subjects are anything other than randomly picked from the population. But this now depends on the population, which I really have no idea about.
If I make the (very big) assumption that all tests are valid, I would guess that 1-3. are DP, but this is still based on the population. Personally, I think the possibilities are a bit high. Before reading your standards, I considered 30% to be “high accuracy” and 1-3 to be DP. No. 4 I would still consider NI.
why I’m not a subject :
I have to gauge the accuracy based on repeated tests. Which of these best describes how this is to be imagined :
All tests are repeated on me?
Tests are simultaneously in alternate universes where duplicates of myself (who’ve never been to your lecture before) take the test?
I take the test myself once, then observe exact duplicates of myself (as I was the first time I took it) take later tests?
I take the test myself once, then observe other people take the test?
How is the validity of a test determined? In #1 and #2, it appears to be only my level of concentration that matters. Barring you or anyone else with telepathic powers reading my mind, am I the sole arbiter of that? Can I declare a test invalid?
In #3, how do you know I ever thought of a number at all? Am I specifically told to deceive you, or simply told as before, not to give clues (and figure out on my own that I would lie at some point)?
Assuming that I would not do any of the above means I can’t consider any test on me valid. Also, would you specifically tell me to try/not try to deceive you?
Ruling out myself as a subject gives me the description I gave above.