# Interesting survey: possible or not possible? Your opinion needed

This is a survey, and I really hope lots of you will take 2 minutes to post a reply. Your help is appreciated. I need at least 50 responses to form any kind of useful conclusion.

Okay, so I’m a lecturer and entertainer and I demonstrate all kinds of weird things. Here are some descriptions. All I want to know, in each case, is how plausible you think it is. In each case, do you think:

DI definitely impossible = I’m sure that’s impossible, so it must be some sort of trick (whether or not you can figure out how it’s done is strictly irrelevant and nothing to do with this thread).

DP definitely possible = it could be some kind of trick, but then again it is possible, so maybe it’s for real.

NI no idea = I have no idea whether it’s possible or not and I wouldn’t venture an opinion.

1. You think of a number from 0 - 9. I just gently hold your wrist, like taking your pulse. I’m not looking at you. I ask you not to give me any clues, but just to mentally concentrate on your number. I recite the digits from 0-9, and purely by detecting your pulse reactions, I can guess the digit you’re thinking of with pretty high accuracy. DI, DP or NI ?

2. You think of a number as before. This time, I’m not touching you but instead I stare at your face and your eyes. I ask you to think of your number, but not give me any clues. I recite the digits from 0-9. By carefully observing your silent facial reactions, I can guess which number you’re thinking of with pretty high accuracy. DI, DP or NI ?

3. You think of a number as before. I face away from you, and I recite the digits from 0-9. Each time I ask you to say “No” as if denying that’s your number. Hence you must be lying on one occasion, but I ask you to make sure you keep your voice tone very even and not to give me any clues. By carefully listening to your verbal responses, I can tell which number you’re thinking of with pretty high accuracy. DI, DP or NI ?

4. You think of a number as before. I face away from you, and merely ask you to think of the number in a very focused way. I don’t touch you, can’t see you and nothing is said. By some sort of intuition or ESP or whatever, I can guess your number with pretty high accuracy. DI, DP or NI ?

Over to you, you wonderful helpful people! When I get at least 50 useful responses, I’ll share some useful info about the survey.

What the heck, I’ll play:

1. DI

2. DI

3. DI

4. DI

Should survey takers be categorized? I’m a dead ringer for ‘easily duped boob’.

The survey answers:

1. DP
2. DP
3. DP
4. DI

And then I type some more just for the heck of it:
For the other 3 I would say that ‘high accuracy’ is pretty vague. On myself personally I would give number two the highest success rate unless you permitted me to throw false positives (would that count as a clue?). The others sound like a polygraph, and I suppose this is the sort of situation one’d be useful. On someone with a bit of self control I think your success rate would approach 10%.

1. DP
2. DP
3. DI
4. DI

Four DI’s from me.

[list=1][]DP[]DP[]NI[]DI[/list=1]

I’m assuming that “pretty high accuracy” means repeated trials with the same person.

#1 and #2 give you pretty good visual/physiological cues, which most people don’t have good conscious control over.

#3 gives you verbal cues which most people do have good control over - you’d probably get some right based on the cues, but overall you’d probably stay pretty close to random.

#4 - well if you asked someone to quickly think of a number and then guessed chances are they would think of 7 and you’d get it right. The First Time. After that there would be no cues and you’d perform completely randomly.

My sincere thanks to the first few respondees. And thanks for using the ‘DP DI NI’ codes too. Makes it easier for me later to collate responses.

Some clarification. I conduct each of the four tests on you just once, although in each individual test I might go over the digits two or three times before committing myself to my final guess. I only try each test once per lecture, on one person (and you are to imagine it’s you).

‘Pretty high accuracy’ means that I don’t claim a 100% success rate on every test in every lecture, but I claim I get each test right 7 or 8 times out of 10 i.e. if you saw my lecture 10 times, you’d expect me to get each of the tests right about 70-80% of the time.

Forget about the how or possible methods. Nothing to do with this survey. I purely need to know whether you think each claim is DI, DP or NI.

1. DP
2. DP
3. DI
4. DI

DP
DP
DP
NI

1. DP
2. DP
3. DP
4. DI

1-3: DP
4: DI

1. DP
2. DP
3. DP
4. DI
1. DI
2. DP
3. DP
4. DI

DP
DP
DP
NI

DI
DP
DP
DI

DP
DP
DP
DI

1. DP
2. DP
3. DP
4. DI

Possibility on no. 1 is low–but possible I guess, depending on context and set-up.

I find this an extremely difficult poll to answer - a scale would gauge my reactions far more accurately than the three limited options available. Anyway, my reactions are probably closer to DI than DP for all four, though how close varies.

NI
DP
DP
DI