glee,
You wrote:
With more than 1000 posts??? I haven’t even opened it. This is just the sort of thread that I avoid with a vengence. I’ll make a prediction - you can tell me if I’m wrong - I’ll bet that fewer than 30% of all the posts in that thread contribute anything to the content. The rest will be venomous reparte and feeble sarcasm…
No harm in that. I thought you were trying to bait a trap and I was just pointing out that I felt that Phaedrus had successfully made his points clear (in this thread). However, if he has presented contradictory or confusing arguments in another thread, I can see why you might seek clarification.
Sorry, that wasn’t directed at you specifically…
…specifically I was directing that comment to folks like pldennison, Gaudere, Beeruser, Surgoshan, slythe, and even our fearless moderator who’ve added nothing by way of intellectual content to this discussion…
…but, I digress and run the risk of being like the others… so I’ll make this potentially conducive contribution:
[quote]
You said ‘I think that the Earth may be 4.5 billion years old or perhaps as young as 20,000 years old. I know of some scientific facts that lead a person in both directions…’
I think this is highly relevant, because the theory of evolution depends on small changes over massive time periods. If the Earth is only 20,000 years old, then Darwin’s theory falls.
[quote]
I agree with your observation, but are you sure that Darwin’s theory holds even at larger time spans like 4.5 billion years?
BTW, current theories is that the Earth was built 4.5 billion years ago, but that life didn’t begin to occur until nearly a billion years later. So maybe the window of opportunity is only 3.5 billion years - that’s still pretty huge. Is it huge enough? I have my doubts, at least that tiny random evolutionary steps can get from simple single celled creatures to complex human ones in only a few billion years… if at all.
The problem is that most people lack a real comprehension of really big numbers and in the complexity of systems. This is a point that Douglas Hofstadter made in his book “Mathemagical Themas”, an interesting - though enigmatic book. Hofstadter also talks in this book about his fascination with Rubik’s Cube. He calculated that this fairly simple mechanical puzzle has on the order of 10[SUP]19[/SUP] (that’s 10 to the power of 19, in case my HTML doesn’t work right) different states. That’s a pretty damn big number for such a simple mechanism with so few pieces. How big is this number? Well if you were to pick up a cube once each day and randomly move to another state, it could take you much longer than the universe has been around to complete the puzzle. Of course you might get lucky, depending on the starting state and which random moves you happened to make, but let’s say that you had a billion machines with a billion cubes, all with random starting positions and these machines started evolving their cubes at the rate of one state each day from the beginning of the universe (as we know it) back some odd 15 billion years ago… statistically, you would expect fewer than two of them to have solved the puzzle by now.
My point, in case it’s not obvious, is that higher level animals like humans, and apes, and elephants, and snakes, and cockroaches, etc. are much, much, much more complicated than a Rubik’s Cube. Furthermore, most animals on Earth have much longer reproductive cycles, much less evolutionary cycles than one day. Furthermore, most animals will die if they take the wrong step on the evolutionary trail or fail to take the right step quickly enough. Furthermore, mosts scientists believe that there have been a number of near restarts due to comets and other global natural disasters that wiped out huge populations of thriving creatures.
So while 3.5 billion (or even 4.5 billion) might seem like a long time for random events to cummulate, it seems to me that statistically something doesn’t add up.