Iowa Caucus Discussion

They could have also put everything on a web app. This, as well as the spreadsheet, has the added advantage of being able to use a keyboard to enter the numbers.

I have a feeling the reason they used an app is, it allowed the precinct captains to enter everything on their phones, rather than having to lug laptops around.

The biggest winner in all this I reckon is Bloomberg.

All this money and time spent on winning 49 piddly delegates, with the possibility that a first- or second-place finish will boost your media attention? It’s bupkis this year. Absolutely fucking bupkis.

All the while Bloomberg continues his massive efforts in California, Texas and North Carolina-- big delegate states for the nomination-- as well as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin-- key states for the general.

Incidentally (and anecdotally), I’ve been seeing a lot of interest in Bloomberg on the Grand Rapids, MI Indivisible Facebook page. It’s been full of Warren, Sanders and Pete people, but Bloomberg is gaining traction among these people in the past week. They like the fact that he’s actually spending time and money here this early, while no one else is.

The random draw in Virginia was for an unlikely event: an exact 9431 to 9431 tie or some such.

In the 2016 Iowa caucus, there were a dozen coin tosses, or more. I must admit it seems like a silly ritual to me. The delegates already have varying weights: “Appanoose County casts 0.71828 votes for Buttigieg and 0.14159 votes for Biden.” How hard can it be to divide a number by 2? (Assuming of course, you know how to use the calculator on your smart phone.)

I’m reminded of the utter confusion some Americans expressed when they learned that a Japanese baseball game with a tied score at the end of the 9th inning is entered as a “Tie”: it doesn’t go into extra innings.

It’s very common knowledge that software developers in India/China/overseas make about 25% of what they make in the US. Also call centers there have similar low costs which is why it’s very common for a person overseas to answer your call.

yeah, because heaven knows this isn’t important enough to have someone who cares enough to be named precinct captain go through the supreme effort of bringing a laptop with them on this one day! :smack:

Ya know - I don’t HATE cellphones. I actually use mine every once in a while to make a phone call, send a text, or google something. But just because cellphones EXIST doesn’t mean they are the best tool for ALL purposes. Same way I didn’t throw out all of my pens/pencils the moment I bought my first computer…

You mean if your candidate doesn’t get enough support your vote doesn’t count at all and you are forced to support one of the popular kids to have any say? Democracy in action.

So this is how democrats want to run health care?

No, not a snark at all, and no, I’ve never heard of the coin flip controversy. I’m reminded of Major Clipton at the end of “The Bridge on the River Kwai”: “Madness…madness.” I had no idea was a thing.

No, that’s what the Obamacare website is for. Which shouldn’t make you feel any better.

I think the Iowa bounce will probably be less than usual this year. OTOH, that was already likely, what with the caucus taking place in the middle of an impeachment trial, the day after the Super Bowl and before the SOTU address. But it won’t be completely irrelevant. If Biden, for instance, faceplanted as badly as preliminary reports suggest he did, he won’t be able to escape questions about that just because the results are a day or two late.

Overall I think people need to calm down a bit. It’s a huge embarrassment for the IDP, and no doubt some people should lose their jobs over this. But having to wait a day or two for election results isn’t exactly a catastrophe. Nobody is going to die because they had to wait a little longer than expected to find out who won.

As I mentioned earlier, I have no stats on the “Iowa bump.” But again, it seems to me that if there is such a thing, it doesn’t depend just on whether or not on the night of the caucus, a winner is announced and he or she gets to make a big victory speech that night, which convinces lots of people in New Hampshire or elsewhere how to vote. Are that many people watching then? And if the winner is announced, say today, isn’t a bump still likely (assuming such a thing exists in the first place)? I don’t know the answer, but this is my thinking on the matter.

No one’s gonna die, but it’s not gonna give any of the winners the bump it would’ve otherwise, regardless of the Super Bowl or whatever. By the time these results are announced, the SoTU will be a couple hours away, and the attention will have shifted to NH. The only news story coming out of Iowa will be how terrible the IDP is. Such a great use of campaign dollars and staff/volunteer hours! If I’m the winner (or even the second place finisher) of the caucus, I’d be fucking pissed at how many resources I wasted in this state.

That is an interesting (and kind of sucky) rule.
Washington State has used caucuses (we are moving completely to primaries this year) and that’s one of the things I like(d) about caucusing. Things weren’t set in stone; people could change their minds after talking to others in their precinct about issues.

Other thoughts:
Counting votes at caucuses is always nuts. Even more so when it’s a crowded room and a lot of people were not taught fractions very well. (This is also how I know that the US is not ready for proportional representation, or at least my precinct isn’t.)

Also, who cares that there aren’t immediate results? This isn’t an election. The next step isn’t for another 7 days. The only people who truly benefit from having the answers last night are the news media. Everyone else (the New Hampshire voters, the rest of the voters, even the campaigns themselves) are not going to be radically affected by waiting for a day or two.

Don’t forget about the news cycle. The headlines this morning should’ve been something like “Bernie and Pete win big, Biden stumbles.” Then all day it’s about analyzing and spinning the results. The headlines tomorrow morning will be about the SOTU.

As opposed to waiting … and waiting … and waiting for Trump and the GOP to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something amazing? If you’re going for a cheapshot at least aim somewhere you have an ounce of credibility.

Exactly, these campaigns didn’t spend tens of millions of dollars, and dedicate tens of thousands of man hours to the state of Iowa, so the results could get buried the next evening among news stories about how shitty the Iowa caucuses are.

As I said before, Bloomberg’s the winner here.

Yeah, okay, but I’m saying that if you vote in New Hampshire, and if you are the type of person who would take note of a big story out of Iowa, you will be the same type to look up the results today. I don’t mean to totally discount the value of a big news story the night of, but their is still plenty of time for the pundits to have at the results.

Yeah, the Teeming Millions won’t be paying as much attention as they otherwise would have, and that sucks for the winner. But donors and endorsers (the Teeming Millionaires?) will certainly be paying attention, so it still matters a lot.

Heard about some other irregularities at some precincts. Some seem pretty major.

First problem, at some caucuses the voters were instructed that if their candidate was not viable after first alignment, then they have to realign to a new candidate. They were explicitly told they could not try to join with other non-viable supporters to become viable. I know in a Marion precinct, this cost Warren a delegate for sure. Interestingly, at my precinct they encouraged the non’s to join together, but it didn’t happen.

Second problem, it seems like lots of precincts were doing coin flips when they shouldn’t have. I’m not even sure exactly when the coin flip is triggered by rule, but it seems like it should only happen when candidates have the exact same portions of a delegate. But I’m hearing of places where the fractions majorly favored one candidate but they still flipped a coin. Dumb. Hopefully the raw voter counts are getting checked and corrected at the state office, but from what I’ve heard, that seems to be where the bad math was coming from last night. One example: one precinct had 4.8 delegates for Bernie, 3.2 for Pete. Locally, they made the logical choice: Pete 3, Bernie 5. But then they called the state central office to make sure and they were instructed to flip a coin. Pete won the coin flip so it went to 4-4. So dumb.

I like the point about the donors and endorsers. The other teeming millions, though? That’s just my point. Most people don’t even know there was an Iowa caucus last night, or give a damn.