Iowa Caucuses are underway

You be not alone!

I really was not expecting Bernie to do so well - this is close. If he wins, Clinton will have to take up residence in a bomb shelter to avoid the immediate negative press coverage . . .

D 78.6% reporting
Clinton 50%
Sanders 49%

Stupid sexy Sanders.

Neither one will really ‘win’, this is pretty much a tie. It will probably be 50-51% for one and 49-50% for the other. So even if one of them wins, you can’t really say they won in any meaningful sense.

Except that one of them was in single digits a while back and the other was leading every poll by huge margins.

It is/was a beautiful night. No chance the weather had any negative affect on the results.

Yeah. Narrative and momentum are a thing in politics.

But you’re right that in the delegate horse race it’s not indicative. But watching the spin will be entertaining.

True. But tell that to their campaign managers. :wink: Being able to claim a “win” over Clinton, no matter how technical, would be a major booster for Sanders.

Exactly. It’s a huge upset. Plus the fact that the Iowa Democratic winner has in recent years been a good predictor of the nominee, so a 50-50 result may portend quite an interesting election season.

538 data.

Cruz is outperforming expectations by 3.9%. Trump is underperforming by the exact same figure.

Meaningful? Who knows? But Rubio is outperforming expectations by 6.2% so far.

From 538:
Trump is underperforming his polling average by 3.9%; Cruz is overperforming by 3.9%, and Rubio is overperforming by 6.2%.

This. Sanders has won a huge victory tonight, even if he doesn’t squeak quite above Clinton.

R 99% reporting
Cruz 28%
Trump 24%
Rubio 23%

Carson finally dropped below 10% at the end.

D 81% reporting
Clinton 50%
Sanders 49%

PLUS, Bernie’s a solid win for New Hampshire - the last time someone won the nomination without Iowa or New Hampshire, their last name was, uh, Clinton. Again, doesn’t really mean anything, but it’ll add to both the negativity surrounding Hillary and greater exposure for Sanders.

How’s Hillary on the sax? Don’t think she’ll need it, but might be nice to have it in her back pocket. I’m sure we can persuade Arsenio Hall to make yet another foray into late-night just for that.

(Definitely do not want anyone to ask her about her underwear, though.)

Fox News reports Huckabee is dropping out.

Crud. I really wanted Cruz to be humiliated tonight.

Huckabee is out, apparently.

Unsurprisingly ethanol is a very inefficient fuel source.

There, there. New Hampshire’s in a week.