I’m going to go out on a limb with this, but here goes. I think this will end in catastrophe for Apple that ultimately costs Tim Cook his job.
In principle, I not a zealot about the 3.5mm jack and I’m not an audiophile. I just think this is going to be a major barrier for a lot of people who would typically have been automatic iPhone upgraders. Some of those people will still upgrade of course, but the market is going to react very badly when they see the decline year over year. Apple saw a 25%+ decline in sales with the 6s, the 7 is going to be even worse and the headphone jack will be the biggest reason for it (combined with the evolutionary, to be generous, design and lack of killer new features). Long story short, Apple has given their fans a legit reason NOT to upgrade while offering no real compelling reasons in favor of it.
I was a long time iPhone holdout. I had an iPhone 3G and 4, and I really disliked it in a lot of ways. I missed my Blackberry and I hated iTunes (still do). The battery life was dismal and I used a Zune (!!!) for my daily music and podcasts. Eventually I switched to Android and then Windows Phone and back to Android. I loved Windows Phone, but just couldn’t tolerate the lack of apps and constant OS reboots, and Android was painful in a lot of ways. So, I’m back to a iPhone 6s+ and I’m pretty happy. I say this to hopefully inoculate myself from accusations of Apple-hater or Android fanboy.
When I bought my 6S+ I planned to take advantage of the “iPhone as a Service” pricing and upgrade annually. But now, with this version, I’m very likely to skip that plan and wait and see what the iPhone 8 brings. It’s the headphone jack, and only that, that is holding me back.
I really want to take advantage of the new camera with OIS (shameful that this 6S+ lacks such a basic feature) and the dual camera may be interesting. The dual speakers are super exciting to me, I rely heavily on speakerphone for work and had a HTC One with Boomsound which was revolutionary at the time. The waterproof design is nice and I’m always game for better battery and more power. The haptic home button is questionable, but not a blocker. I’m not a design snob, so I am not put off by the lack of a new design. So, again, I really would like to upgrade, but I won’t.
Here’s why the headphone jack is so important to me.
I’m not an audiophile but I do use headphones ALL THE TIME. I don’t buy many high-end headphones (though I do have a very expensive wired Bose set and another pricey wireless set) but I have almost a dozen cheap-to-midrange earbuds that I use close to daily. I treat ear buds the way I treat Lightning chargers. I keep them everywhere I might need them.
I have a charger and ear buds by my bed so I can listen to music or watch videos before bed while charging my phone. The Lightning adapter and the Lightning Earpods both preclude this use case, which is very bad.
I have ear buds in my laptop bag, in my desk, in my car console, by my keys and wallet and with my running stuff. I don’t typically carry ear buds with me, I just use the ones that happen to be where I am. If I’m running an errand I grab the ones in my car. If I’m heading to work I use the ones in my laptop bag. If I’m at my desk I use those. When I head to run or to the gym, I use my running set that are super secure or my wireless set. There’s simply no way I’m going to buy Lightning headphones or wireless headphones for this use case, just too expensive and with little to no benefit.
Wireless headphones have their place, I own a set, but they only last for 8 hours and constantly need to be charged. Constant charging is OK for the phone, it goes with me everywhere and I have chargers everywhere, but not so much for the headphones. I can charge and use my phone at the same time, you can’t do that with headphones. I really don’t want to be carrying a wireless set of headphones around everywhere I go, they’ll get lost, broken and will always be dead at the end of the day. I can’t be the only person who operates this way.
My girlfriend is super slow to adopt new technology and she always forgets to charge her phone. No way she would charge headphones too, and a set of dead wireless headphones on the train in the morning will be rage inducing. That’s another persona this will exclude.
Apple’s plan to soften the blow and usher people to the next generation is going to suck, hard. The Lightning adapter will make pocketing your phone while listening almost impossible. It will create a lot of broken Lightning ports. They will get lost constantly. Anyone remember the days of dongles? That sucked.
And don’t get me started on these “AirPods”. What a dismal design and idea. First, Apple’s Earpods have a unique design that simply doesn’t work for a lot people. Neither me or my GF can use them because we don’t have the right shape of ears to hold them anything close to in position. The problem…they fall out constantly, but at least you have a cord to catch them by. Not with these AirPods…one careless move and they are gone to the road, the gutter, the sidewalk, the bottom of the train, a storm grate, that puddle, the mud, the grass, the sand on the beach, etc… People will jump ship when they are buying their 3rd, 4th and 5th pair of these.
So…I rest my case. Start selling and shorting your Apple stock now folks. It’s gonna be a blood bath.