Iran and the Strait of Hormuz stories

[gonzomax]

Wringing hands over nothing… There have been a lot of stories written in many publications saying Bush intends to bomb Iran.
He did mention them as one of the Axis of Evil countries which must be corrected. He attacked a couple countries on his list. This president makes it pretty clear that he does what he decides is correct,whether it scares the hell out of the rest of us or not. This is far beyond nothing to many of us.

[John_Mace]

@Tuckerfan

In the last “urgent budget requests” to fund the war, there was a request made for $88 million dollars to modify stealth bombers to use bunker busters in operations “outside the current theaters in Iraq and Afghanistan.” Now, maybe the Pentagon just wants some shiney new toys to play with, or perhaps they’re planning upon expanding the war.

IIRC, when we discussed this in a past thread, it was determined that these weapons probably wouldn’t be ready before Bush’s term was up.

But maybe he and Hillary have been talking in private.

[thirdname]

One thing I was thinking when I saw that video, was that I bet at that range they could cook people to death with the AEGIS radar if they wanted to.

[Tuckerfan]

@John Mace

IIRC, when we discussed this in a past thread, it was determined that these weapons probably wouldn’t be ready before Bush’s term was up.

But maybe he and Hillary have been talking in private.

Or maybe he’s planning on sticking around, past '08!

(More disturbing are the stories that Rudy’s top people have been lobbying Bush to bomb Iran.)

[XT]

@Der Trihs

At least I’m not a bloody handed apologist for the Bush Administration and religion. You are vermin.

Well, coming as this does from someone who is pretty obviously a nutball, I’m not going to take the ‘vermin’ insult TOO seriously.

Up the voltage…

@Tuckerfan

In the last “urgent budget requests” to fund the war, there was a request made for $88 million dollars to modify stealth bombers to use bunker busters in operations “outside the current theaters in Iraq and Afghanistan.” Now, maybe the Pentagon just wants some shiney new toys to play with, or perhaps they’re planning upon expanding the war.

Well, as John said I seriously doubt they will be ready for Bush to use against Iran (it would be pretty much a miracle for the Defense Department to fund, develop and procure a weapons system that rapidly). As I said before, if Bush wanted to launch strikes into Iran he doesn’t NEED any excuse…nor special weapons…he COULD do it any time. No need for back door funding of special weapons or any other convoluted loopy plots necessary…he could do a Clinton and toss Tomahawks tomorrow (or last week, or last year) if he chose to.

My guess is he isn’t looking to do more than rattle sabers at this point…because if he meant to do more he already would be.

-XT

[elucidator]

Your analysis is entirely reasonable. Therein lies its problem. You’re analysing a man who is not remotely reasonable.

[Bookkeeper]

@Tuckerfan

In the last “urgent budget requests” to fund the war, there was a request made for $88 million dollars to modify stealth bombers to use bunker busters in operations “outside the current theaters in Iraq and Afghanistan.” Now, maybe the Pentagon just wants some shiney new toys to play with, or perhaps they’re planning upon expanding the war.

I believe this is to replace the previous stock, which was almost completely expended during the various Gulf Wars. As, IIRC, the originals were hasty improvisations manufactured using sections of large calibre gun barrels from obsolete Navy ships, which are a limited resource, so they need to develop a method to manufacture replacements from scratch, which accounts for a good chunk of the cost.

With respect to the videos from the two sides linked above, it’s possible that the Iranian video is from a completely different incident or has been faked. There appears to be too much independant verification for this to be the case for the US one (lots of involved sailors appear to be reporting the same events in open, uncontrolled discussions, for example). The US Navy now apparently routinely videotapes such encounters. One wonders if the Iranians also do so, or if this was specially recorded, and if so, for what purpose? (While I cast a jaundiced eye over much of the official statements by the US (and my own) government, I am even more sceptical about the blatant propaganda that is put out by many of their current opponents.)

[Tuckerfan]

@Bookkeeper

I believe this is to replace the previous stock, which was almost completely expended during the various Gulf Wars. As, IIRC, the originals were hasty improvisations manufactured using sections of large calibre gun barrels from obsolete Navy ships, which are a limited resource, so they need to develop a method to manufacture replacements from scratch, which accounts for a good chunk of the cost.

If that’s the case, [then why do they talk about retro-fitting B-2 bombers?

The Defense Department has asked for $88 million to retrofit B-2 Stealth bombers so they can carry a 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bomb called the massive ordnance penetrator (MOP), which has the capacity to destroy deep underground targets.

The Administration says the request is in response to an “urgent operational need from theater commanders.”

Some observers might conclude that the Pentagon is seeking weaponry to strike Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida in their caves in Afghanistan.

But as Gerard Baker, U.S. editor of the Times of London, points out in the New York Post, that would not require Stealth bombers.

“The Americans own the skies over Afghanistan and Iraq and could, if they wished, blanket the two countries with all manner of bombardment from a few thousand feet in broad daylight,” Baker notes.

Instead, the more likely targets are the subterranean nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran, according to Baker, who writes:

“The debate in Washington about what to do with the increasingly recalcitrant and self-confident Iranian regime has taken a significant turn in the past few weeks. And the decision to upgrade the bombing capacity of the military is perhaps the most powerful indication yet that the debate is reaching a climax.”

](http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/bunker_buster_iran/2007/10/29/44803.html)

[Hentor_the_Barbarian]

@Bookkeeper

With respect to the videos from the two sides linked above, it’s possible that the Iranian video is from a completely different incident or has been faked.

Apparently not. A full US video is now available.

Who Spun The Hormuz Incident? (Update - The Full Video)

From that website:

First observation - the first part of the radio exchange accords with the Iranian version released Friday and which the Pentagon had said was of an earlier incident.

Not much of what we were originally told about this incident, including the speculation that the Iranians released a videotape of a different incident, appears to be true.

[Squink]

This strikes me as a dangerous and irresponsible attitude:

The president said it would not matter to him whether an attack against an American vessel resulted from an order by the government in Iran or a rash decision by an Iranian boat captain.

“It’s not going to matter to me one way or another,” Bush said. If the Iranians hit a U.S. ship, “there are going to be serious consequences,” he said.

[Wee_Bairn]

If reports are true that the aggressive messages came from just some guy on a radio and not the Iranians, and Bush had bombed them as a result, I would’ve loved to have heard his excuse though. I wouldn’t want innocent Iranians to die, but I would love to hear that press conference- Uh ‘the smartest country in the world’ was duped by some schmo with a transmitter, and thousands are dead as a result- sorry bout that!

[Bookkeeper]

@Tuckerfan

If that’s the case, then why do they talk about retro-fitting B-2 bombers?

They are replacing an extemporized weapon with a purpose designed one, which may require different fittings, bomb aiming software, etc. Weapons sytem software especially can be expensive to modify, and any changes require a masive amount of testing to make sure that everything works as expected, the changes don’t break any other part of the system, and the aircraft is not adversely affected by carrying and releasing the weapon.

Note also 30,000 pounds would be a VERY big bomb, and the article is in error here (even the giant WW2 ‘Grand Slam’ was only 22,000 pounds, and it wouldn’t fit in a B-29 bomb bay, much less a B-2). The current GBU-37 is only 5,000 pounds and is to be replaced by the EGBU-28 of the same weight.

(On further review, it was M201 8" howitzer barrels, not naval gun barrels, that were used for the original bombs.)