Monitored the situation as it developed
Felt concern about the lives of Iranian military personnel
Weighed the consequences of a disproportionate response
Called the strikes off in a display of mercy
No way. Trump was probably in the White House shouting “death to the goddamn A-rabs!” (I know Iranians are not Arabs but I bet Trump doesn’t) and some advisor pointed out that if there is a war, all the news coverage will switch to that rather than Trump’s latest tantrum. That’s why the strikes were called off.
I doubt this is true. I think Trump talks a lot of shit but doesn’t want to get his hands dirty. He can grope women half his size and talk shit about an old (and now dead) John McCain. But this is the guy who got repeated deferment for bone spurs. Sure, Bush was a draft dodger too, but his daddy wasn’t and by the time he got to be president, war was pretty much a family enterprise. Trump isn’t a killer. But John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are reptiles. They masturbate to videos of nuclear explosions.
There is no plan to invade and occupy Iran. Moreover, if there is a war, Trump must win it. If he doesn’t, he gets impeached and he spends the rest of his life in exile and/or prison. What does that tell you? It tells me the only plan we have is to bomb the ever living shit out of Iran, and to make an example out of them for the rest of the world. John Bolton isn’t just a neo-con; he’s a neo-con on roids. He’s one of those who sits in a bar and says “America stopped fighting real wars, stopped fighting to win 'back in '45” - that kind of shit.
The comments in the thread are all very interesting. Thanks!
I do have one question: Why would Russia want to keep the Strait of Hormuz open? Sure, they’d love it if they could somehow get credit for defusing a crisis; and sure, they’re happy if Trump’s stupidity causes some to look up to Russia as the saner power. But wouldn’t they be secretly delighted, both geopolitically and economically, if petroleum exports from the Gulf became more expensive?
I think Putin looks at this as something he doesn’t have to waste any resources on except to monitor things because no matter what happens, it’s all good for Russia.
Putin, like Iran, wants to limit US influence in the region. On one hand, Russia doesn’t want to encourage more American adventurism and nation-building in the Middle East, particularly since the US would likely encourage the overthrow of the authoritarian regime of the Ayotallah and replacing it with a regime that is more pro-democracy and sympathetic to Western values (or at least willing to consider more Western influence).
But as most of us have already opined, the likelihood of blow-back and failure is rather high. If the US initiates a war which ends up resulting in the closure of Hormuz, then that would be critically disruptive to markets worldwide. There are all kinds of moderately bad scenarios, but a really bad one would would be especially punishing for countries like Japan, which is heavily populated and relies a lot on the importation of global oil. Another outcome of a worst-case scenario is that it would also hurt the US, the Americas, and Europe. Europe would potentially lean more on Russia for its energy – like a lot more, thereby threatening the existence of NATO and the EU. You’d also have a world that’s mad as fuck at the United States for crashing their economies without any real security justification for doing so. Our economic, political, and security alliances would be badly strained, with the possibility of street demonstrations putting intense pressure on governments to put distance between their governments and the US.
In the long term, Russia and China benefit; the US loses bigly.
I meant to address it earlier, but the apparent confusion and dissonance from within the WH that’s spilling into public view is what makes this situation particularly dangerous. As has been pointed out before, when you’re dealing with a potential conflict, you want lines to be clear. You want to avoid ambiguity. You want adversaries to know that if you do A, then B will follow. Trump may view this as a card game at one of his failed casinos, but this kind of bullshit poker is lethal in the real world.
Right now, Trump’s dithering between Bolton and Pompeo, who are telling him he looks like a ‘cuck’ and a pussy for not attacking Iran, and being told in no uncertain terms that a war with Iran would be the end of his presidency and probably mean jail time after his exit.
Once he’s out, he can be indicted before the various statutes of limitation run out. On the other hand, if stays in for another 5+ years, they’ll expire before he does.
No, not Pompeo - he and Bolton are hardliners to the bitter end, and would probably advocate expanding presidential power domestically. I tend to believe that not everyone in the WH or in GOP circles believes that this is going to be a viable plan, though. Exactly who the naysayers are, I couldn’t tell you.
I wrote it somewhere else, but I’ll write it again:
Usually, it’s the advisers who are brought in to rein in the president’s impulses and who provide more realistic assessments of how his policies would play out in reality. In this administration, it’s the president who is checking the fanaticism of his advisers. And that “check” is only as strong as his mood on any given day.