Anyone who buys that second line, about “not seeking war”, I have a very attractive bridge to sell you.
Iran says it will break uranium stockpile limit in 10 days.
If there’s no deal, then there’s nothing stopping Iran from enriching uranium and making a bomb, right?
[url=]Russia engages in superior gamesmanship:
Tensions only promise to ratchet up from here, which was bound to happen when a) we unilaterally and inexplicably withdrew from the nuclear framework - which was actually working - and b) when Trump brought in John Bolton to advise him on national security. It doesn’t help that our Sec of State is managed by someone who is identified more for his service in the military than for his diplomacy.
I think the chances of war with Iran - in some form or another - are well north of 50%, mainly because whether Trump is aware of it or not, he’s now put himself (and the country) that is going to be harder to get out of diplomatically. Every time Iran shoots down a drone or lobs a missile at an Exxon oil field in Iraq, it’s going to be perceive (probably not incorrectly) that it’s an extended middle finger to the U.S.
I don’t think Iran is miscalculating the US - they know a war with us is bad for them, but if they view it is as inevitable, then they want to make it bad for us as well. Iran is not going to sit as the US quietly moves its carriers into position; they’re going to disrupt a build up long before it happens. They don’t have a lot of cards to play, but one they do have is that they can disrupt the Middle East politically and economically, and in so doing, they can potentially disrupt much of the rest of the world.
I know that this board is extremely liberal, but in case any of you have an open mind on the subject, this piece lays out how bad the so-called Iranian deal was
Yes, I know, it’s from a conservative publication; I’m as surprised as you are that the huge downsides of JCPOA weren’t published by MSNBC
This is a terrible critique, largely relying on political attacks and innuendo (most of his criticism wasn’t even about the deal itself!). Getting out of the JCPOA helped Iran, rather than hurting them, because everything they got out of the deal had already happened; getting out of the deal helps no one but those who want Iran to have an easier path to nuclear weapons.
Trump strengthened hardliners in Iran, weakened the moderates in Iran, hurt US relations with our European allies, and weakened the long-term negotiating position of the US, by getting out of the deal. Perhaps the dumbest foreign policy blunder since the Iraq war. It will probably surprise no one that the writer of the dumb critique above, Jonathan Tobin, was an enthusiastic cheerleader of the disastrous Iraq war.
Got a cite that isn’t from a website that had a “black crime” tag and defended Roy Moore starting from the assumption that he fucked teens? Or, y’know, just any source that isn’t fucking batshit? Last time I clicked on a federalist link I woke up three days later in a dumpster behind a Denny’s wearing a tinfoil hat - doctors tell me I had a major aneurysm from how stupid if was, and you can never be too careful when it comes to that kind of thing.
(Trick question - sources like that don’t claim that the Iran deal was incredibly bad, and tend to bring up that every time we try to cut a deal with them and fail, our bargaining position gets worse.)
I won’t even dispute that Hezbollah was stockpiling weapons or whatever else he claimed in the article - doesn’t matter. How much operational control Iran has over Hezbollah is a matter of debate, and in any case, the real objective was to stop the proliferation of nuclear weapons. One way you stop proliferation is to convince countries that they are safe without them. The framework had inspectors on the ground. It had international support, including the support of Russia, who has no love for US foreign policy and who particularly objected to the foreign policy of Bush and Obama. Withdrawing from the agreement confirmed Iran’s (and North Korea’s by the way) worst fears, which is that countries need nuclear weapons to defend themselves against the world’s most powerful military.
Even if we acknowledge that the nuclear deal was flawed or biased, what did we gain from unilaterally pulling out? If it was too generous towards Iran, just a threat to withdraw would have been a valuable bargaining chip. Which we gave away and got nothing in return.
As usual, Trump puts all his chips in - on the ante.
Iran shot down a US drone; US confirms. Although there is some dispute about exactly where it happened.
That phrase in quote marks reminds me that I didn’t link this article on Lawfare yet: Does the U.S. Currently Have a Right of Self-Defense Against Iran?
It examines past actions in light of international law while drawing parallels to the situation right now. It focuses largely on state actors working in concert with others (or trying to) due to treaties or defense pacts. I found it helpful as it provided real examples; the things discussed are not vague legal concepts.
And then we tightened sanctions against Iran to a stranglehold and moved in more military. Seriously, what the fuck does anyone expect to happen after that??
In other words, no rules of law. Maybe it’s okay to kill’em all, and let god sort it out.
All the more reason why nations should more often invoke moral law, not international.
Exactly - as I’ve said numerous times on various threads, economic sanctions are not necessarily peaceful acts. Economic sanctions have consequences. They can kill people. They can foment political unrest and end regimes. This is what explains Putin’s behavior. This is what explains Maduro’s behavior. It explains Kim Jung Un’s behavior. I’m not writing this to defend these regimes, but simply to point out that sanctions can have the same consequences as a tomahawk cruise missile. It’s just less dramatic.
Obama’s administration contained Iran, which was the right strategy because they put the threat of Iran’s nuclear program on indefinite hold, and the did this without exacting any further costs. Moreover, it made it possible to have negotiations at some point. Critics can look at Obama’s legacy as rewarding Iran, but they were only offered a reward, and they were offered a reward when they behaved like a more mature member of the international community.
Trump’s decision to pull out removed the incentive to cooperate, though they were willing to work with other parties to the deal such as the EU and Russia. And now, by increasing sanctions and sending warships to the region, Iran not only has no incentives, they justifiably feel threatened. Trump is acting like someone who wants to overthrow the Iranian regime, and his closest aides are people who have already advocated regime change in the past - not to mention a willingness to make up facts to justify doing so.
I bolded this text because I think that a war with Iran would present Trump, the authoritarian’s authoritarian, with an opportunity to declare a true national emergency. I’m not saying that to be a conspiracy theorist - this is probably isn’t an angle that Trump is actively thinking of, but it’s one that exists nonetheless. Under the right/wrong circumstances, it would be a way to preserve his misrule.
Frankly, I was shocked Iran didn’t get attacked by our military today. Very curious what happened for it to be called off and if this is only a delay.
Bolton and Pompeo have such boners to bomb Tehran it’s sick.
Trump Claims He Called Off Iran Strike After Learning How Many People Would Die
Seems like the sort of question you should ask slightly earlier in the process, but then I’m not a President…
Trump is about to stumble into his first major foreign policy crisis, and unlike some crises, this is one that is almost entirely of his own making. I mean, great that he called off the bombing, but now he looks like a clueless pussy in the eyes of his “Bomb the shit out of anything that moves”, Fox-and-Friends binge watchers. And Bolton and Pompeo are going to tell him that he looks weak for backing out, and they’ll remind him of it every time Iran does something provocative. I could be wrong, but I think Trump is politically trapped in his own tar pit.