Donald Trump: A legend in his own mind.
A “legend” who is trying to give Iran’s main rival in the region, Saudi Arabia, US$8 billion worth of armaments and, at no extra charge, nuclear weapons.
There was a report that at least one of the tankers was damaged by a torpedo:
That’s not good.
Regarding “nuclear weapons”, your link says:
It seems a good bit more likely that the USA is assisting Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear energy program rather than giving them nuclear warheads, doesn’t it?
It’s hard to know exactly what’s on Iran’s mind, but they clearly feel squeezed and cornered.
I’m thinking the attacks on oil tankers represents one of two things (or maybe both):
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Try to use economics to discourage an attack. Try to rattle markets. If that’s really a strategy, it probably won’t work as oil prices seem to be in yet another decline.
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If a war is inevitable, then they’d probably rather bait the US into it before they’re completely prepared.
That wouldn’t work if they were baiting Turkey, because they’re always prepared.
Wait: who do you think attacked those tankers? :dubious:
The simple answer to who is perpetrating the tanker attacks:
Either it’s Iran or one of their proxies at Iran’s request, or it’s the USA or one of their proxies at the USA’s request.
Also could be a Saudi proxy. Maybe there are other possibilities as well. Much too early to be making any judgments based on information available.
This would be a perfect time for Iran to have planted the explosive but let Trump and his Republican guard weather the storm of accusations that it was actually a US action.
I wouldn’t blame them. On the other hand if Trump responds militarily he’ll have his cause for 2020. All he needs to do is convince a few more percent. The 40-something of his base are already locked.
POTUS, Sec of State and Acting Sec of Defense all publicly blame Iran.
It’s a mystery why Iran would feel it counterproductive to talk with the US; a complete mystery. :rolleyes:
I don’t think Trump wants a war with Iran, but Bolton and Pompeo are probably telling him “We look like pussies if we don’t do anything.” I think the US will pull out all the stops in a war with Iran. Bolton will try to obliterate the place. It’ll be a message to the rest of the world. The question is, how would Iran respond to that. What do they have in place to defend themselves?
HoS wants the US to “help” them take care of their Iran “problem”. That’s it. That’s the kernel of truth at the heart of this mess that we’re about to get in.
We’ll prolly win the coming war with ease, but I predict that long term, we will lose the peace.
Yeppirs to the above.
Unless Trump does something truly deranged like resort to using nuclear weapons, I doubt we’d even win the first stage of the war (i.e., topping the government) with ease. Waging war in Iran would be at least five times as difficult as Iraq and we’d likely go at it without any of our European allies assisting.
Considering who’s in the White House, I think that if war breaks out, Iran will get obliterated. There will probably be international condemnation from traditional allies, but the Trump administration won’t care - one of the benefits of breaking off relationships and acting unilaterally and according to America’s own rules. Conservatives have complained for decades that America doesn’t “fight to win” or fight “real wars” anymore, which is what Bolton and Pompeo will give them.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Trump could use this domestically in two ways: one is that if he is viewed as successful, Iran could be part of his re-election strategy; and two, he could use it as a pretext to declare another emergency and make a real power grab. Yes, people will protest, and he will probably put them in jail for doing so.
Like so much else he might do, his success would depend on the actions of Republican senators and the opinions of John Roberts.
His success depends on how much people are willing to tolerate, and how much risk they’re willing to take on to push back against his authoritarianism.
Yes, much of what I’m saying here seems like alarmism, until you realize that this administration is filing court briefs and legal opinions that declare the executive branch superior to congress, and why would it not then declare itself superior to the judiciary if it rendered an opposing opinion. What can a judiciary (viewed through the prism of 5-4 partisanship I might add) do to stop a president that congress cannot? Do you really think the president and the GOP are going to ignore the congress but comply with a split SCOTUS decision? They’ll just ever-so slightly modify what they’re doing and then compel more legal challenges, just as they did with the Muslim Ban, just as conservatives are doing with their extreme abortion ban laws. Their plan is to wear down the judiciary. **They’re done with democracy. **
No, I get it. Indeed, I worry that so much can be destroyed by so few.