Iran is roiled by anti-government protests

At 0:14 in the video in the foxnews link.
And at 0:05 in the video in the usatoday link

And it’s not a handwritten scrawl–it’s a large-format professionally printed sign covering half the truck.

Something which I would expect a journalist covering the story to write about.

But this thread isn’t about protests in Los Angeles, so to get back on track I have a question about the protests in Qom:

The link describes two levels of religious hierarchy in Qom–the government-supported , well-paid, and the the poorly paid private imams. Presumably, the religiously-dressed protesters in Qom are all the “private-sector” class. How much influence do they have over their brothers in the “upper-class” echelons of the clergy?
Sure, the Ayatollah doesn’t like the look of those protesters…but is there any social mechanism through which his “upper-class” supporters interact with the the poorer clergy? Can they just ignore the poorer class, (like politicians all over the world ignore poor people ). Or do the two classes regularly interact at seminaries, in religious courts, etc.? This would make it more difficult for the Ayatolla to ignore the protests

I’m seeing official Iranian government reports of 2,000 dead, and unofficial reports of six times that number.

A real thing by the way. Or rather, it used to be. It’s one of those quirky national touchstones I find fascinating (like the Serbs being obsessed with getting their asses kicked by the Ottomans at the ‘Field of Blackbirds’), because it wasn’t really Iranian at all. Though the jeweler who oversaw the construction was Persian, the Mughal court being highly influenced by Persian art and design at the time. It was war spoils carted off by the military phenomenon Nadir Shah after he sacked Delhi in 1739 and then probably promptly dismantled after he was assassinated in 1747, with its constituent jewels now scattered across multiple crown jewel and private collections around the world.

The regime is now claiming 3,000 dead. The real number as before is likely much higher. These protesters are incredibly brave.

Would he make a workable figurehead, with someone else who knows what they’re doing (and ideally, who is democratically elected, though I’m not holding my breath) holding the actual power?

I don’t think the son of the head of a regime so despotic that triggered the Islamic revolution would be an unifying figure.

It worked out for Charles II.

For certain values of “worked out”, considering the fate of his immediate successor.

Thank you for an excellent post.

The course and outcome of internal revolutionary violence is extraordinarily hard to predict.

The idea that an external power can dictate a regime change just with bombing and threats seems to me preposterous.

The protesters are incredibly brave and I wish them success. I hope to god that Trump and Netanyahu don’t fuck it up for them by intervening militarily. Maybe some international coalition could successfully work with the protesters to take down the regime, but involvement from this US or Israeli administration would probably help prolong and prop up the regime.

The general consensus here in Israel is that getting involved at this stage would be a huge mistake, and Netanyahu seems to agree. There are even reports that Israeli officials have been trying to convince Trump to stand down for now.

As soon as some other country intervenes militarily, the balance shifts in favour of the regime.

welp

I agree with you on this. But Trump has the mind of an 8 year old child, and he just succeeded in raiding the cookie jar in Venezuela, so he thinks he can do it again in Iran.

So I have upgraded the stocks in my bomb shelter for a long stay this time, not the hour or two like previous attacks.

That may not be the case in Iran. If Trump attacks only military bases of the hated Revolutionary Guard, I don’t know if the protesters in the streets will suddenly decide that they love the Rev. Guard
Also, with the total telecom blackout in Iran, the public there will never hear about the attacks.

Now, I have a question about other targets. for anybody who knows Iranian culture. There have been reports that the protesters have set fire to mosques and government buildings. I’m guessing that the protesters chose those buildings because they were relatively minor targets, not well guarded. But Is there a specific building, say, in Tehran, that is symbolically important, is well guarded, and would be a reasonable target for the US to bomb? Something as symbolic as , say, the Bastille was to the protesters in the French Revolution. Or the huge palace in Rumania when Ceausescu was deposed.

Would the the protesters would be glad to see such a symboi destroyed, even if it was by a foreign power?.

(Also, would US military intelligence be aware of the cultural issues involved in targeting a building like this?)
.

I just don’t know what the US could actually do militarily that the Iranian people would regard as ‘help’. I mean they could maybe do a ‘decapitation’ strike and target certain leaders. This, however, would still leave the apparatus of the regime intact, and it seems more likely than not that someone with the most guns available and willingness to use them would simply take advantage of the vacuum and declare themselves in power. And odds are that individual will be every bit as detestable as the prior leaders

I agree with you that a decapitation won’t work, because the whole apparatus of the Ayatollah’s regime would remain intact.

But that’s true whether the decapitation is done by an American bomb, or by an angry crowd of protesters who lynch the Ayatollah.in the street.

So,(to quote this thread’s title) : why is Iran being roiled by the protests? What are they hoping to do? To destroy the regime, the protesters would have to convince half of the military to strip off their uniforms and desert. That seems impossible.

So my guess is that the only thing they can hope for is that the Ayatollah will throw them some economic improvement in their lives.. For that, the crowds should be chanting something like “Give us bread and butter!”, not “Death to the Ayatollah, Pahlavi will return”.

It’s a worthy goal for them, but not worth Trump going to war over.

If they just give the asshole the peace prize will he stop all this peacifying?! :roll_eyes:

IIRC that’s a language issue, like the American tendency to declare a “War” on everything (War on Poverty, War on Drugs, etc). It’s not usually meant literally.

You might recall that from earlier in this thread.

Regardless, though, it’s not a specific demand like “make bread affordable” or “stop killing us” or whatever it is that the people actually want. Which probably varies considerably from one protestor to the next.

The regime would publicise it to the hilt: “The Great Satan is attacking us again!”

The restrictions on telecommunications are imposed by the regime; they don’t apply to the regime.