Iran-war -> gas situation in your country [potentially panic inside]

In My Humble Opinion
1

Hi there,

while browsing the internets, a stubled upon this story on a mayor Aussie news site:

[There is 1month worth of “gas” on ships to Australia - but then?]

My first thought:

  • poor guys/gals in Australia, an island with no crude oil as we all know … and with all that comes with that …aggravating fact: All of asia is highly dependent on middle-east oil, so there will be quite a bit of me-first happening if things go further south.

My 2nd thought:

  • how is my country (Chile) doing? … pretty much the same … for logistics aspects: an island with no production of crude-oil. So - pretty much in the same situation … and we don’t even have a debate/discussion on that topic, here…

So, what are your somewhat educated guesses of your countries/regions for the next 1,2 or 3 months if crude supply stays significantly short of its aggregated demand? (lets keep the - very likely - undersupply a premise of this thread)

edit to add: the lack of deeper discussion reminds me of dic.2019, when Covid was already a thing in China, but completely ignored in the western political or intelectual debate.

2

@Al128, I assume you’re looking at responses outside the US, which is totally fair. The political ramifications for the USA is being discussed here so far. Or if my assumption is wrong, so be it!

For myself, I don’t have any useful information to share from a non USAian perspective, but I’ll take a moment to apologize for the situation caused by my nation. NO, I didn’t vote for Felon47, nor did my state, but doesn’t mean I can’t apologize for the harm we are causing.

3

Moderating:

If this thread becomes overtly political, it will be moved to P&E. Just a heads up.

4

also interested about opinions from within the US …

Or do you not foresee any fuel/gas/oil shortages ? (actual Q, not snark)

I know that the US is a crude exporter, but I am not sure a.) that it’s a NET-exporter and b.) if this is true for all types of “oil” (in the widest sense) …

Also … there is plenty of oil in one part of the US, but not in the other (which historically sourced internationally) … but now there is no way to get huge amounts of oil from the S-E to the N-W…

5

In the USA, gas (and pretty cheap gas at that) is almost considered a right and necessity, rather than a commodity in the more traditional sense. To the point it is a major political point when the prices go too high, but in my lifetime (I’m too young for the 70’s crisis) there’s not been an issue for shortages just cost.

I will say that in the week immediately after the attacks on Iran, especially as it became more clear it wasn’t going to be a one-off set of attacks like the failed strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities that people topping off, and filling up did of course spike.

But the problem turns on a more cultural nature: many American’s obsessions with huge vehicles. And I get it, because when you’re driving around in a smaller, more efficient vehicle (like my Prius PHEV) the cars surrounding you in heavy traffic are/look twice as big, and yeah, not the best feeling.

And I live in a very hilly area, where historically icy/snowy roads during winter and spring did tend to support 4WD/AWD vehicle ownership, so we were already biased in the direction.

So even given the huge increases in price, people still have to fill up fuel inefficient vehicles regularly, and there’s little assumption that it’ll run out but may be unaffordable.

A specific example, is that there is a lot of talk that the various gig-drivers (Uber, Lyft, etc.) are going to exit the market. Because the prices the platform charges isn’t keeping up with the costs of business:

( I picked this one, because it gets a lot more reporting in California, where the prices are much higher than the rest of the US to show it’s not just a CA issue)

Anyway, USA drivers should consider it a much bigger issue, because (especially in the spread out cities of the Southwest) we have terrible public transportation infrastructure and huge distances between where people live and their jobs, food purchase options, and other daily needs. It’s flat out stupid.

6

Prices for petrol (gas?) around Berlin have jumped from around 1.65 - 1.70 €/l just before the war to 2.20 €/l this afternoon, the trend clearly showing upwards. No more Russian oil and gas, no more Qatari gas, no more Iraqui, Kuwait and Emirates oil, Saudi oil only partially available. North Sea oil (Norway, UK, Netherlands and a tiny bit of domestic production) are nowhere near enough, so I guess we are heading towards a shortage in the medium term, perhaps one or two months. Nobody talks about it in the media, I don’t read social media.

I personally filled my car up three weeks ago (2.05 €/l) and plan to keep filling the deposit up every time the level falls below 2/3, 1/2 at the latest. We drive very little, 80-100 km/week, a full deposit lasts 5 - 7 weeks. I usually let the deposit go down and fill up when the reserve indicator lights up. Not now. My plan is to always keep four weeks autonomy.

If everybody who on average used to drive with a deposit half empty is also much closer to driving with the deposit as full as possible that alone is some drain on the supply. Still it is the rational thing to individually do.

ETA: I am refering to E10 petrol with 10% added alcohol, which has substituted what used to be called Normal Benzin. Super is more expensive and Diesel is currently the most expensive of all fuels at the petrol station (~2.50 - 2.60 €/l this afternoon). Diesel is also what most commercial users need. It used to be the cheapest option.

7

I’m in Canada, which has oil but not the kind we can easily turn into gasoline.

I’m also on an island (Vancouver Island to be specific and as far as islands go, it is huge) and it’s too far to row to the mainland so if gas stops reaching us, it’s going to be terrible. We need gas to get the goods to the island and then more gas to move the goods around.

8

And not just gas. Fertilizer for farmers is at risk.

The Middle East is also the source of about 45% of the global trade in sulphur, a key raw material for fertiliser manufacture, as well as for producing various metals and industrial chemicals.

But since Iran began threatening to attack shipping, only a trickle of vessels carrying ammonia, nitrogen and sulphur, vital ingredients in many synthetic fertilizer products, are transiting the strait to their destinations.

9

Oh, it is of note that even in the USA, some changes have been applied to try to curb costs:

Generally the 15% ethanol blend wasn’t available in summer months to reduce smog, and I know that gas stations offering it weren’t common in my area, but reading the article and other information shows it was and remains more common as a measure across many areas of the nation. Historically though, it’s been a 10% ethanol blend, and I know a large chunk of “Powwwwaaaaah!” enthusiasts look down on E85 as a travesty.

10

Here in eastern Canada, gas prices are about as high as I ever remember them (around 186.9¢ a liter) but at least we’re not facing any shortages. This is about 68¢ a liter higher than the February low (or roughly $2.20 a US gallon higher).

Doesn’t bother me directly as I drive so little, but it’s bound to be inflationary as it affects the cost of pretty much everything, including essentials like groceries.

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any word in any country (other than Australia) - concerning the supply-chain and days-of-stock debates?

I am aware that governments probably disencourage that kind of debate → “Bank-run” / bad press.

For me personally, today - after reading the far-far-away-Oz-news - was the first time that I internally questioned future availability - and not just price of gas.

12

The petroleum situation in most countries seems to depend on what happens at the strait of Hormuz. That is a very political situation, so I don’t see how we can have a meaningful discussion outside of that.

For myself, I am not overly worried about being able to drive around, I happen to be able to afford higher gas prices, and I don’t drive that much. I am worried about the prices of goods going up, especially food, due to drastically increasing fuel costs. I don’t expect to see actual shortages and long lines, as we saw in 1974 (I am old enough to remember that) because of reasons that are political. But higher prices, due to other political occurrences in addition to this war, are already hurting many people in this country. Hungry and needy populations might become, shall we say, difficult to manage. This country is not accustomed to privation in any significant way since WWII.

OP asked about the next 3 months or so. In that time frame, I expect higher prices and increased dissatisfaction with what is going on with the war. Even if the war ends before three months from now, the petroleum situation will not improve unless the strait is completely opened up again.

13

Makes sense to advance purchases in an inflationary scenario. I have acquaintances in Argentine, that in the hey-day of inflation purchased their 2 days worth of bread before heading off to work, as coming home from work bread was already more expensive than it was in the morning… so yeah …

14

I am not thinking about inflation, filling up every 5 to 7 weeks is a negligible cost to me, even if prices shoot up. I am trying to be able to keep on driving the little bit that I drive for four weeks longer than the rest, whatever good this may do to me. If the rest go full peasant revolt because of the shortages perhaps the governments of this world will do something to keep petrol flowing again and then I might not even experience an interruption thanks to those four extra weeks.

If everything goes to hell I guess I will buy a solar powered handbasket and join the hoi polloi down there.

15

( source: Uncovering Supply-Chain Risks in the Iran War | MSCI) … seems like only Emerging Markets are mapped

it seems that the first countries where we will see supply-crunches rear its ugly head will be SE-Asia, but quite important economies (S-Korea, India!!!, China!! Taiwan …)

16

Taiwan and South Korea are “emerging markets”?

17

Well you might think we all know, but you don’t.
Australia is a net exporter of energy commodities but, is a net importer of oil products. Approximately 80% of Australian produced energy was exported in 2022–23

It is true that our stocks of local petroleum are not commensurate with our extensive natural gas reserves, but we draw oil from the fields in Bass Strait and the North West Shelf.

So we have the energy sources, both fossil and renewable but not in forms that allow a ready transition, particularly for transport.

As with most things energy related price is a lesser concern if there is ready availability. e.g. if due to a shortage of bunker oil, the bulk tankers aren’t in the correct ports to load.

The ocean shipping lines servicing this region have imposed a bunker fuel levy of USD130/TEU (20’ FCL). Average ocean freight rates from SE/NE Asia to Australia are currently about USD1,250/FEU (40’ FCL) so that about a 20% surcharge. During COVID FEU rates spiked above USD8,000/FEU.

18

I am on vacation in the Philipines now and I am see about 150 pesos/l for diesel and 105 peso/l for gas. That’s almost $10 a gallon for diesel and $7.50 for gas! While back home in Michigan I’m told that gas has hit $4/gallon.

The Philippines has been hit hard, cost of everything is going up. But it was announced yesterday that a deal was struck with Iran to allow crude going to the Philippines would be allowed to pass through the straight. I expect more SE Asian countries will strike a similar deal.

Trump fucked up big time on this war. What is he going to do? Blockade the straight and make the world suffer? How the fuck did no one see this coming? Oh wait, he is a short sighted idiot, that’s why.

19

The US has been a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products since 2020; however, due to differences in supply vs refining capacity, it exports light crude and imports heavy. I can’t get EIA’s website to work this morning so no cite.

Most of the country is connected by pipelines but there is no way to get crude oil to CA (beyond what they already drill there) other than by boat/truck/train. And in part due to the Jones Act this is expensive.

Since there’s another thread on the US specifically, I’m going to go check that out.

20

So it seems that even in countries with lots/excess energy, the mismatch factor is of critical relevance…- which I suspected …

The same kind of problem you have with 1 million unemployed and 1 million job openings … a bricklayer doesn’t make a good nurse …

[insert my favorite phrase]: Each complex problem has an easy, clear and wrong solution

Q for Australia: why hasnt solar take more off ( I assume it did take off ) … I can see the "large country problem that Canada/US/Russia also have - that makes EVs often non-viable, but I also assume there is lots-and-lots of innercity traffic (people who do 95-99% of their driving within - say - Sydney) …