Zarqawi exists; if he didn’t, the intelligence communities of the rest of the world would be going “Whatcha tallkin’ about, Willis?” every time the Bush Administration played their “Zarqawi is the most evil dude in the world today” song.
On the other hand, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Zarqawi turns out to be a relatively unimportant mid-level al Qaeda operative, and the Administration is trumping up his value to make it appear they’re on the ball.
As to whether I believe in silly conspiracies or not: I never believed for one second anything about WMDs and Al Qaeda links prior to BWII. And, let me tell you, it was quite lonely having such oddball beliefs at the time.
Going back further, I also thought the Gulf of Tonkin incident was all staged.
Etc.
Overall, my track record of how my oddballs theories have turned out has been darn near 100%.
I might be wrong a little about Al Zarqawi. He might actually be in Jordanian custody, not US. Lots of interesting intel has come out in the last couple days.
The link between Iraq and Al Qaeida has always been rather suspect to say the least. I don’t know of anyone who thought Iraq had nuclear weapons, although many suspected chemical since Iraq had used them in the past. I wouldn’t qualify such thoughts as “oddball”.
The incident was controversial at the time to say the least. I personally think folks were shooting at things they thought they saw but weren’t really there.
Post assetments are easy.
See, claiming the adminstration is wrong about wmd in Iraq has some logic behind it. Claiming the administration knows where Zarqawi is, was thus behind a fake video with him in it, and will trot him out for an election boost is a jump into woo woo territory. I’ve heard the same conspiracy laid out with Bin Laden.