What are the polls predicting? Is this more or less controversial than SSM?
So in highly Catholic & Christian Ireland, a fetus is not a limb of the mother? Don’t they read their own Bible?
It’s completely illegalin Vatican City (duh :D), Malta, Andorra, and San Marino.
In Poland it’s mostly illegal. The exceptions are serious health threats to the mother or fetus, rape, and incest. There’s also been recent attempts to impose even stricter limitations including a total ban.
In part of the UK, specifically Northern Ireland, it’s also mostly illegal. It’s allowed only for cases where the mother’s life is in danger.
There’s also some strange legal limitations like the one Germany is struggling with this year. It’s legal for women to seek abortions. It’s legal for doctors to perform them. It’s illegal for doctors to advertise that they offer abortions.
Way more controversial. SSM was almost a dead cert. That campaign had its low points but thus one has been particularly ugly.
Polls are saying that the repeal side is ahead but there are still a lot of undecided. The latest I’ve seen is 56% repeal, 27% no, 14% undecided and 3% refused to answer.
Though I think it is unwise to give too much credence to polls, I do get the feeling that this is going to fly through and not even be close. I’d be surprised if it were not approaching a 20% gap. My thinking is that the “undecided” will swing mostly “yes” and that “yes” voters are more likely to vote anyway.
I could be wrong but I hope not.
Thanks for the info. Here’s to hoping the “repeal” side wins. We’ve got enough Irish in this country (the US), and don’t want to see whole boatloads more coming.
Just kidding about that last part. I really do hope the repeal side wins.
It’s the boatloads that are coming back that are impressing me.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/hometovote?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^hashtag
I really wish pollsters would push harder for a yes or no answer. I can’t really believe there are people who are really undecided on an issue such as this. This isn’t the European Union with so many low information voters who have no clue what the European Union is.
It is possible that some people do not want to respond to a poll that they are a “Yes”, as that is not entirely anonymous, whereas they will vote a “Yes” once they are in the voting booth.
I suspect you may be right, that could be the harder answer to give on a doorstep whereas an anonymous poll allows an easier “yes”.
It may be the same phenomenon as the leave voters for Brexit.
And many voters for Trump.
Sorry you had to go through that, I’m not surprised you’re angry. I very much hope for a yes vote.
It is the “no” voters who are more likely to be shy, I think. “No” is depicted as regressive, old-fashioned, oppressive, uncool, etc. My guess is that the undecideds (or those of them who vote at all) will break towards “no”, but not in sufficient numbers to carry the day.
Anyone have any ideas when results will start to come in?
The count of votes begins at 9:00 am on Saturday morning. There’s a separate count in each parliamentary constituency; the results are reported to a central location and aggregated there.
The first step in the count is to check the number of ballot papers in the box from each polling station against a return from the presiding officer at that polling station which shows the number of votes that were cast; these two figures should tally, obviously. Only after this has been done do they actually look at the ballot papers and start counting yeses and nos.
The count is conducted by local government officials under the scrutiny of officials from the Referendum Commission and observers nominated by members of parliament. The observers are known as “tally-men” (regardless of gender) and they usually include political activists with experience of election/referendum counts. They are pretty good at reading a trend on the basis of a partial count, and forecasting the outcome.
There’s always a proportion of ballot papers where the voter’s preference is unclear, and these are set aside until the end of the main count, when the returning officer will receive submissions from the scrutineers and then rule on how, or whether, they are to be counted. It’s very unlikely, though, that the number of disputed ballots in a referendum would be material to the overall outcome.
It’s likely that within a couple of hours - say, by 11 a.m. or noon - tally-men will start forecasting either a win or a loss (or possibly “very close”) at the parliamentary constituency level, but of course this could differ from constituency to constituency, so unless there’s a strong trend it may not be possible to forecast the overall outcome on the basis of this. But I’d be very surprised if we didn’t know with a reasonable degree of reliablity by mid-afternoon which way the national vote was going.
Man, if the USA ran elections that way there’d be a revolt because votes weren’t counted IMMEDIATELY after polls closed. We need to know who wins these things NOW! 
The Irish Times exit poll has it at 68% YES
Hopefully the actual poll will follow suit. Women should have control over their lives and body.
Apparently RTE have an exit poll due tonight too. That sort of margin strikes me as well beyond sampling errors though.
How do you think the legislative process will work out? And whither Northern Ireland?
RTE will release third at 11. If these numbers are accurate and the spread if yes votes was so large. Dublin didn’t just ram this through.
Dublin 77%
Rest of Leinster 66%
Munster 66%
Connacht-Ulster 59%
Rural areas 60%
18-24 years olds 87%
Women: 70%
Men: 65%
It will be a brave politician to go against those kind of numbers. The SSM vote and now this has really energised the young. They can see actual change.
Next hopefully we’ll go after the schools and remove the final choke hold that bastarding church has on the country.