At least the ads are anyway. I keep getting a vote yes ad. There, mundane and pointless.
I haven’t paid attention to the Lisbon Treaty on this go-round. Does it look like Ireland will vote for it this time? It wasn’t as a big topic in the news when I was there a few months ago as it was the first time it came up for a vote. The only mention I saw this year was a mailing that said, in effect, “Please vote for it this time. Pretty please! You just have to!”
I reckon it’ll pass. I’m disgusted at them forcing another vote on us but I think people are scared enough to vote yes.
I was wondering about that.
the government (and EU) say: Dear citizens, I know we asked you your opinion on the treaty, but - helas - you were wrong. Please reconsider and give us the answer we want…oh and bye the bye, this is not a suggestion!
the Irisch people respond (at least last time): Oh right, sorry about that:), won’t happen again…well it might happen again but we are always ready to change our mind if you tell us to.
Don’t get me wrong, I personally am pro EU and would like the Lisbon treaty to go into effect, but I would expect that - here in the Netherlands - having a second referendum (for the record, we didn’t have a first) on the same issue because the government didn’t like the outcome, would result in an even stronger NO!!
They did it with the Nice Treaty too. We voted no, then we were strongarmed into voting yes. It sickens me.
How were you strong-armed?
What was this then? For all intents and purposes it was the same document that you voted on. They just changed the constitution label and added some clauses and made it a treaty to avoid ref’s in the majority of other countries, e.g the UK where the politicans said that since it was a Constitution a referendum was no longer required.
I would say that wanting the Lisbon treaty to go into effect and being pro-EU have nothing to do with each other. There’s many ways in which one could see a viable role for the EU and still oppose the Lisbon treaty (or its predecessor, the treaty for the constitution). Framing any and all debate on the EU in terms of being in favour of it or against it in my view poisons the debate and does not accurately reflect the actual positions that people making a serious argument (i.e. those not writing for a UK tabloid, for instance :)) take up.
Anecdotally quite a few people in Ireland feel they’ve had more time to understand the issues this time around; the “No” vote last time was often a rejection of something not understood.
That’s not to say even now that people actually realise what they are voting for, but they think they do which si more likely to give a “Yes” result.
Well, it is similar enough I’ll give you that. The difference is the Dutch never put out a new referendum. The government claimed that the treaty was different enough and could be ratified through parliament. Whether they were right or not is a whole different discussion, but I was just saying that I don’t think putting out a second referendum on the exact same issue would have any chance of having a different outcome.
Let me put it this way, if the Irish parliament had said: we are going to ratify anyway (I’m not sure that is possible in Ireland, but t technically would be possible in the Netherlands), that would show they disagree with their citizens, but might be acceptable in a representative democracy. I’m amazed at putting the exact same question to the same people, just because they didn’t like the outcome the first time…and it actually working.
I don’t think I said these things are necessarily the same. I was just trying to make clear that I raise the issue because of the way the Irish are handeling it and not because I am invested in the issue (by showing that I would actually prefer the different outcome).
I do think that having this treaty is a positive step for integration and that another failed treaty might have - what i believe to be - negative consequences (but the lights will probably stay on:)).
Due to the nature of our Constitution it would be impossible for the government to just put this through parliament. They have to have a referendum. They would love it to be different but alas for them there’s no way around it.
It looks like it will pass without too much problems this time. We are in a very bad way at the moment economy wise. Possibly the worst hit in Europe. People are too fearful to rock the boat at the moment. The Yes campaign isn’t as shoddy as it was this time.
The reaction to the initial vote from the likes of Germany and France really left a bad taste in my mouth the last time. If a No vote happened this time god knows what would happen. It could be anything from the rest of Europe moving on and leaving Ireland behind which would be a dramatic show of disrespect to democracy to then having to spend another few years putting something else together.
The current government in Ireland has a 80% disapproval rate and will almost certainly fall at the next election. That is where the focus of Irish anger lies now. Last time a lot of the No votes were protest votes against the government and not really about the Treaty at all.
Maybe strong-armed is the wrong term. I mean that another referendum was scheduled, granted with a couple of changes to the treaty, even after we had already voted No. I think this displays a fundamental lack of respect for actual democracy on the part of our political élite.
From what I saw in Ireland recently, I’m surprised there isn’t a “No” ad plastered right above the “Yes” ad. It’s that way on every single light pole in Dublin, and most of the rest of the country.
To be honest a lot of the people I know that voted No did so for reasons that had nothing to do with the treaty. Not all of them, but a lot of them. Even now I’m still hearing things about voting No to stick it to the government.
OK, FWIW, that seems like a pretty bizarre stance to me, especially if they tried to change the treaty to address peoples concerns before the second vote. If they’d failed to pass on the first referendum and then went ahead and passed it by some other means I think you might have a point, but simply asking the people to reconsider after making changes to make it acceptable to the majority doesn’t seem undemocratic, rather the opposite actually.
Not one word or comma has changed in the Treaty. There are a few assurances that have been given but nothing in the document has changed.
That’s a fair point about the modification but what would have happened if Irish voters voted No the second time? As Yojimbo explains above there is no way for the government in this country to implement it without the consent of the people. They either must abandon the treaty or they hoist another referendum on us. I think the content of the Lisbon Treaty is a bit of a non issue but it annoys me that Irish voters are told they’ve given the “wrong” answer in each of these referenda and they must try again.
Just to note, I was referring to the Nice Treaty.
To change the treaty itself would obviously have meant all other members’ previous ratifications would have been voided, so the guarantees to Ireland are going to be codified separately (in the future accession treaty of Croatia)
And if anyone is interested in seeing thoseassurances…