It doesn’t even need a qualified majority. It just needs 12 states (out of 27).
Germany would rapidly face an economic crash in this case. The Euro’s price is being lowered by southern Europe, leading to German export’s being wildly undervalued, hence much more popular, hence the decade-long economic boom in germany (and it’s more or less entirely due to the impact of that export advantage). If Southern Europe bails, Germany loses that edge and suddenly becomes a hell of a lot poorer.
Why would they want? They don’t gain much from a regional political union, and frankly, show no sign of particularly wanting one. Austrians are quite happy not being inside Germany, and the Dutch and Danish don’t want to be dominated by Berlin either. That’s kind of been the tension in the EU all along.
If Greece leaves the Euro (it wouldn’t have to leave the full EU, though it might), there’s every chance that the currency will disintegrate anyway.
The decade long boom in Germany is down to a whole host of things, not least the fact that German wages have been held constant over the last thirteen years by unions and government working together in concert to improve Germany’s competitiveness, a period of liberalization following Germany’s own stint as the “sick man of Europe” about 15 years ago, the aftereffects of unification still being felt in lowering average wages, etc. Germany has always been a massive exporter, even with the DMark, and German GDP growth has pretty accurately tracked British GDP growth since the Euro was instituted, despite Britain being outside of the currency bloc.
Every chance? Rubbish. There’s way too much political capital invested in the Euro project across the entire Eurozone. There’s simply no feasible way to dismantle the Euro in full.
Much like the US “trade dollar” in 1900’s China?
The euro would be used for external trade only-each eurozone country would revert to its own currency.
Much like what the UK, Sweden, Denmark do today.
Then the Greeks could go on their merry way toward bankruptcy (and reorganization).
It would solve a lot of problems.
Exports make up something like 30% of Germany’s GDp now ,and that will change drastically and fast, if the Eurozone starts to fall apart.
Similar statements have been said about a lot of political programs, until people bit the bullet. The Euro, as it stands, is essentially going to permanently turn Southern Europe into an economic dependency. I see no evidence that situation can change as long as the Euro stays around. Since things as they are cannot go on forever - they won’t.
The Euro is a human construct. It can, and eventually will, cease to exist. It will simply happen sooner rather than later.
No doubt Ireland will be told to keep on holding votes until it gives the right result, and then stop.
The Taoiseach has said the forthcoming referendum on the fiscal compact will be a “once-off” event, no matter which way the Irish people vote. We’ll see about that.
I heard, but I believe you’re mistaken.
Here’s an interesting piece, it seems that Labour in the European Parliament opposed most of the provisions of the Fiscal Treaty which Labour in the Irish Government is now pushing for.