So Ireland now has to ratify the European Union Fiscal Stability Treaty. Previously the Irish public has voted down EU treaties only to be forced to the polls again by the powers that be. What happens this time if Ireland votes no?
Germany leaves the EU and the eurozone but offers some of its neighbours the opportunity for full political union? Ireland and Greece are NOT on the invite list?
The Irish will be told to stop being so naughty, and that we’re going to keep putting this to the vote until you get it right, you ingrates.
Something like 30% of German GDP is due to exports to the rest of the EU. They aren’t going to pull out.
Sensible suggestions please. In what set of circumstances would Germany leave the EU? The idea is absurd.
It won’t matter, because only twelve countries need to approve it for it to come into effect. It doesn’t need to be unanimous like a “proper” EU treaty.
Still, I bet the Germans are pretty annoyed that they gave in to a softening of the language in order to avoid an Irish referendum…and we’re having one anyway
So the referendum’s moot?
I wouldn’t be surprised.
I imagine there would be repercussions; after the first NO on the Lisbon Treaty they did make amendments to the Treaty to mollify Irish concerns; I think they were to do with military commitments (Ireland is historically very neutral), and farming policy. It wasn’t a simple as simply telling them to vote for the same thing again.
I could be wrong though…
Yea, I never really got the point of the complaints against the second vote either. The Irish voters decided that they didn’t like the treaty, so the drafters went back and changed some of the stuff the Irish didn’t like and then the voters decided it was OK and passed it. If Irish voters didn’t like the amended treaty, they were free to vote it down again.
Seems pretty democratic to me. I don’t think there’s any democratic principle that once something is defeated, no similar thing can be brought up for a vote again.
Sensible people expect that Greece will leave the euro shortly. Sensible people think that creates the possibility that Italy and Spain may leave the euro. At that point the euro stops being the euro. If some EU countries then decide they don’t like the single market, then the Germans will find that the euro and EU have left them.
However, there is still plenty to salvage, but everyone can see that it requires full political union. The Germans, Dutch, Austrians and Finns give it serious consideration.
Was that so hard?
Put it the other way around, how likely is it that the ever closer union is abandoned? If not, how likely is it that all 26* manage to federate at the same time?
- you heard me
Germany is more likely to stay in any Euro single currency with the likes of Greece and Italy outside of it. The new currency would be a hell of a lot stabler for a start, what with Southern European countries not threatening to bring the whole thing down, and Germany would not be expected to bail out same said members to the tune of hundreds of billions of Euro. I expect there would be a much bigger push to form a closer currency union if only the likes of Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, etc. were involved, instead of the fear of Eurobonds being a back door for Germany to pick up yet more Southern European spending like we currently see.
As for the final sentence quoted. How the hell do you jump from the likes of Greece leaving with Euro to Germany leaving the EU? It’s just not going to happen.
Well, not quite moot. I should have said “it won’t matter as much”, because the Treaty can go ahead without us. But we won’t be subject to it. However, as far as I can tell the “negative” repercussions of us being outside it would only affect us if we needed a second bailout, and the government has assured us that won’t happen…
They didn’t change a thing in the Treaty after the no vote. They just gave some (non-legally binding) “assurances” about how it would operate.
I think they are legally binding, aren’t they? The concessions were added as a Protocol to the Lisbon Treaty, and the Treaty is subject to the ECJ.
:smack: I’ll see you in Terminal 2.
There is a legally-binding Protocol, true. But it essentially only states what the Lisbon Treaty does not do. It cannot be described as “concessions” since there was nothing to concede.
The only real thing that might be described as a concession was the agreement on Commissioners and this isn’t part of the Protocol - nor is the Declaration on Workers’ Rights and Social Policy. These are not legally binding.
I did not make that jump. Clearly my language has been too obscure. The OP asks what happens if Ireland votes no?
What happens is that the Germans recognise that the Irish don’t want the same transnational institutions as the Germans do. Really, what else does anyone think could possibly happen?
Given that the current institutions are not functioning optimally, it is reasonable to assume that they will have evolved materially (or been replaced) in say ten years’ time. So, if the Irish say no, they are increasing the chance that in ten years’ time they will not share a currency with Germany, nor be one of the nations with the closest ties to Germany.
Which is much more important than arguing about whether either, both or neither are still members of an organisation which calls itself the EU.
As mentioned, it doesn’t matter whether Ireland votes yes or no in the referendum, as all that is required for the new treaty is a qualified majority, and not unanimity.