Is anyone else concerned with this new virus in China that is becoming a bigger problem every day?

[steatopygia]

There are at least 4 different threads about this outbreak here. I have been posting mostly to this thread but I would be happy to consolidate. Snowboarder Bo’s thread in MPSIMS has a better title. I think I am going to try and post there. YMMV of course.

[DSeid]

That apparently only explains the decrease today, not the last few days.

China’s National Health Commission also reported 394 new confirmed cases, significantly lower than the 1,749 infections announced nationwide the previous day. A total of 74,576 victims are now infected.

The drop, the largest in almost a month, came after Chinese authorities changed their methodology for counting cases in Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak, to only include those confirmed through genetic testing.

The drops getting to under 2K new cases per day were before that change back.
MeanwhileWHO follows the without changing definitions. This referencing last Friday:

The World Health Organization said it wants more clarity on how clinicians in Hubei are making diagnoses, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director general, said Friday during a news briefing in Geneva. The fear is that without lab tests, diseases with similar symptoms could get counted as COVID-19 cases.

Since there’s no known treatment for novel coronavirus, the change shouldn’t hinder patients’ ability to get care. But for scientists tracking the outbreak, it could muddy the waters.

It’s important “to ensure other respiratory illnesses, including influenza, aren’t getting mixed into the COVID-19 data,” Tedros warned. The WHO continues to report cases using its own numbers, which don’t include the clinically diagnosed cases coming out of Hubei.

According to WHO figures, 48,548 cases had been reported through Friday.

[steatopygia]

Sorry I didn’t link to the thread, I have a little case of the 502/504’s.

The thread

[DSeid]

@dtilque

Now China has gone back to reporting only cases that have been laboratory confirmed, instead of clinically detected. That’s most likely why the number of new cases there has decreased in the last couple-three days. This changing of the criteria is going to play havoc with the computation of statistics, such as the mortality rate.

Of note the last three days have all been around 500 new cases per day. Before the definition change there had only been a one day drop to that level having dropped from the 4K new cases per day peak.

@steatopygia

There are at least 4 different threads about this outbreak here. I have been posting mostly to this thread but I would be happy to consolidate. Snowboarder Bo’s thread in MPSIMS has a better title. I think I am going to try and post there. YMMV of course.

The MPSIMS thread is aptly named for what a MPSIMS thread is supposed to be - breaking news. It is not however the most appropriate forum for discussion about what the news means and does not mean. IMHO of course. The two in IMHO might’ve been better off having been merged early on, though.

[TokyoBayer]

@Machine_Elf

Frankly, the ship is not a nice place to keep all these folks - especially the poor folks stuck in windowless staterooms for several days at a time. However, in terms of containing a potential public health disaster that could kill thousands more in Japan, this is the best solution. The ship already has what it takes to feed and house all these people in one place and prevent them from wandering into town; just bring more provisions to the ship, pay the crew a bunch of overtime (maybe even hazardous duty pay?), and keep anyone from crossing the gangway.

It winds up that keeping people on board was not a good idea after all. The US government told the people it evacuated that conditions on the ship weren’t safe, which is one reason the evacuees are being quarantined again in the States. A Japanese doctor posted a video severely critical of the measures on the ship.

[Machine_Elf]

@TokyoBayer

It winds up that keeping people on board was not a good idea after all. The US government told the people it evacuated that conditions on the ship weren’t safe, which is one reason the evacuees are being quarantined again in the States. A Japanese doctor posted a video severely critical of the measures on the ship.

There wasn’t a good place to put all those people on land in Japan. Keeping them on the ship (as opposed to bringing them all ashore in Yokohama) wasn’t an inherently bad idea, but in this case it was poorly executed. They didn’t do a good job of isolating the passengers from each other, and they didn’t do a good job of keeping the crew from spreading contagion all over the ship, including to each other. Perhaps the most sensible thing would have been for various nations to collect their citizens from the ship shortly after it came to port in Yokohama (instead of now) and then bring them to a well-managed quarantine in their homeland. An effective quarantine for a few hundred people is far easier than one for a few thousand people.