How long do I get before he’s not a bust? JaMarcus Russell took 2 years, Ryan leaf had 3 years, (give or take), Akili Smith had 4 (only 2 as a starter), Todd Marinovich had 2, Andre Ware had 4 (but really only 2), Art Schlichter had 3.
So, how about on December 31, 2015 (it will be mostly done in his third year), if Andrew Luck is still playing in the league, I win. If he’s a bust and not in the league, you win. If he’s injured (not just temporarily, but long term that affected his game), it’s a wash. Any other catastrophic happenstances (long term injuries, death, playing for the Bears) can call it off. If he’s still unproven, say sitting behind Peyton Manning or not having a solid chance, we can extend the bet into the next year.
I would suggest a nice bottle of wine/spirits (say in the 25 to 40 range) as the wager, but I would be open to more ideas.
I don’t see it. Sure, he’s a good quarterback, but he hasn’t done anything to distinguish himself from the dozens of other quarterbacks who came out with first round grades over the last ten years*. His statistics are almost pedestrian- and that’s in the Pac-10/12, where nobody plays defense; Matt Stafford played against NFL-ready cornerbacks.
He could be Peyton Manning. He could also be Bryan Brohm.
Luck has a much bigger problem than what I think of him, which is that the hype train has been rolling for nearly a year already. If he’s anything less than a perennial Pro Bowler, he’ll be a bust.
He’s also one of the ugliest people I’ve ever seen who wasn’t actually deformed, but I’m not sure that factors in.
For the record, the only college quarterbacks I thought would be NFL stars are Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Byron Leftwich, Graham Harrell, Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton.
Relative to the hype, I’d say he has to at least elevate to a Top 5 NFL quarterback to be considered a success (Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger). If he gets to the 2nd level (Rivers, Eli, Ryan, Schaub, Vick), he’s neither a success or a bust. Anything less (Romo, Cutler, etc.) is a bust.
Are you saying that, in order to be a bust, you have to be out of the league? I know I mentioned Leaf and Russell in the OP, but I just meant that he’d be closer to them than the upper echelon. But let’s compromise: How about I win if, on December 31, 2014, he’s not in the top half of NFL QB’s? We can move it to December 31, 2015 if he stays in college one more year.
ETA: A $40 bottle of the spirit of choice of the winner works for me.
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Nitpick: He’s actually a senior, but was redshirted freshman year. He could have left for the draft last year, and was all but guaranteed the #1 pick then as well.
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No, he’s a redshirt junior. A redshirting player doesn’t advance in terms of the freshman-sophomore-junior-senior continuum, even though they do advance in academic terms.
2008 was his freshman year, 2009 was his redshirt freshman year, and so on.
I fear we were using the term “bust” differently. I used it as … well … a bust. And you seemingly used it as “not a top 5 QB”.
That’s two years of playing time. Aaron Rodgers, the best QB in the NFL right now, sat on the bench for 3 years. Drew Brees was the 24th rated QB in his second year. Eli Manning was 23rd. So much depends on the situation (will he be sitting behind Peyton for a couple years?), that I’m not sure that’s a good judgement of whether or not he’s a bust.
But, again to compromise, we look at December 31, 2015. If he’s in the top half of NFL quarterbacks by then, I win. That will be his third year (he’ll come out this year I think), and should be enough time to establish himself. With the prior caveats (injuries, etc.) I’m up for that. I think we can figure out the details closer to the time to deal with the situation also. If he hasn’t had the chance to prove himself either way, we can always move it back another year.
Yes. It’s a bet! I’ve marked my calendar. Of course, if he somehow ever ends up on the Steelers between now and then (extremely unlikely, I know), I’ll be hoping for you to win!
While we’re on the subject, who gets the #1 pick if Miami and Indy each end up with no wins, or if Miami, Indy or St Louis/Arizona each end up with 1 loss?
The first tiebreaker is opponent winning percentage, which would seem to punish Miami rather heavily, with three .500-or-better teams (at the moment) in its division. Arizona and St. Louis also have Seattle in their division, and Indy has a very green Jacksonville team. I would suggest that if a team from the NFC West were tied for the worst record, they would probably end up with the top pick, but I doubt either Arizona or St. Louis will be bad enough to do it.
I do. Indy is better than Miami. More importantly, Miami only has two games left against losing opponents, and those opponents are Philly and Dallas. The Colts get Jacksonville twice, Tennessee and Carolina.
Anyway, I think the Colts would trade the pick. Bill Polian has always been a “trade down” kind of guy, and drafting Luck- who will be expected to start right away- creates too much potential drama if Manning gets healthy.
Much better to take a different quarterback and let him sit until he’s ready and/or Manning is done. That’s especially true since (as I think you pointed out to me) the Colts’ core is aging, while Miami’s is not.
And this is going to be the kind of insanity that will dog this poor kid.
The hype is out of control. As far as I can tell, he’s as good a prospect as comes along, but there are no sure things, ever.
I hope to God he’s got a good, level head to him and goes to a team with a secure coaching staff in place, because if he’s anything less than Jesus in a jockstrap from day one, he’s going to get pilloried by fans and the media who have whipped up utterly ridiculous expectations.
I think that on draft day, they’ll hand him his Dolphins or Colts cap plus the 2012 MVP award at the same time…plus next year’s Heisman (that he would have won if he’d stayed in school).
I think part of it is the image he has. I do believe he is a excellent QB, but also has a Joe College vibe at an academic school. Compare that to the recent scandals with Bush and (almost) Newton, and you know they’d flock to a guy like Luck to “restore” the Heisman.
I expect the hype to be turned to 11 if it’s Stanford vs an SEC team for the BCS title. A de-facto Ivy League school vs a conference that has a reputation for being lax on the whole student-athlete thing (with apologies to Vandy, but I imagine they’d agree).
Reminds me of my mother when she went to Northwestern and they’d regularly get stomped by the troglodytes that Ohio State and Michigan would recruit. After the game was decided (around halftime or so), she said they’d chant “That’s alright, that’s okay, you’ll be working for us someday”.
Irsay is basically saying that Peyton WILL play at the end of this season. If he doesn’t, the Colts are considering him finished. If he comes back and is his old self, it’s probably just an excuse to raise his stock. The writing is on the wall in Indy, Manning is finished there if they get the 1st pick and I wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if they started tanking in a not-so-subtle way.
But I find it interesting that an outstanding academic instiuttion like Stanford has a team that’s known for smashmouth football!
You’d sort of expect a team of smart guys to rely on complicated schemes, trickery, and (to use the dreaded word) “finesse.” But Stanford plays tough, hard physical football.
Any SEC team would probably be heavily favored to beat Stanford if they met in the BCS championship game, but unlike Oregon, Stanford would NOT be intimidated by LSU or Bama’s big guys.
I’m not sure what you mean by that. I’m obviously not all that impressed with Luck. But if a team such as the Colts truly believes that he will be that great (even a “once every 5 years”-level QB), I don’t think they have much of a choice. Manning is 37 years old. Even in the most optimistic scenario, you can’t expect more than 2-3 years out of him. Plus, it’s not like the team is at a level where they will be an immediate contender once Manning comes back. Teams that lose 62-7 are more than one player away from any success.
The smart move would be to start building a team around Luck. And one way to get a great head start is to trade away your biggest chip to one of the several teams that would truly value him, get some high draft picks or young players in return, and aim to create the next dynasty.
To be honest, I wouldn’t be all that surprised if the Colts miss out on Luck, draft Barkley at #2, and still trade away Manning. To throw all their eggs into the Manning bandwagon would be a loser move. Since we’re in betting mode here, I’d be willing to bet that Manning doesn’t get close to another Super Bowl run while with the Colts.
