Peyton out of Indy! Or: Colts ready to press their Luck

Looks like it’s official, or at least as official as Sports Illustrated’s “unnamed sources” get.

Who’s taking the bigger gamble: any one of the alleged suitors for the elder Manning, or the Colts’ apparent declaration that an as-yet-undrafted Andrew Luck is the future of their franchise?

I hope he retires. I always hate seeing an athlete play too long. One Brett Favre is enough.

I wonder if any teams would risk much on Peyton? I can’t imagine anyone signing him for any big money. One hard hit and your 10 million dollar quarterback may be done. His arm strength is still very questionable too. He’s got a lot to prove before any coach will rely on him.

Rob Lowe? Looks like he was right all along?

Reposted from the Draft thread

I mean, does the organization really think that they can get some QB phenom fresh out of college, drop him into a team that has been totally geared toward Manning for over a decade, and it’s just gonna work? The defense has been coasting on Manning’s huge points, the O line is old and set in their ways, and there is certainly no guarantee that Luck or anyone else has the stones to compete on a professional level.

Unless there’s something bad we don’t know about Manning’s arm at this point, I think this is really stupid. They should have traded their 1st round pick for multiple picks to fill holes in the defense and offense, stuck with Manning for a few more years, and bring in a mid-ranked QB with a solid work ethic to train under Manning.

No one out there will work as hard as Manning - even if he’s a little under par, you know he will work until he’s back in top form. And, I bet that he would have been willing to reduce or even forgo his bonus to stay.

I really don’t get this - Indy is nothing without Peyton. If he’s ridden off into the sunset in a few years, Indy would have been fine reputation-wise, but now…

I disagree. Manning has a very good chance of being completely done forever, either already or after a few more bounty shots. Luck is as can’t-miss as you can get. Manning also has a 100% chance of being too damn expensive., even if fully healthy. The team simply has to move on, like the 49ers did with Montana.

This is a QB driven league, and you can’t pass up Luck (or RGIII) to fill your other holes. You fill the one hole that’s bigger than the rest combined, and use your other high picks each round to try to patch the rest.

They’re not much *with *him anymore either.

Opening up money, and draft picks, for a full roster rebuild is perfectly sensible businesswise.

PR-wise? There’s no graceful way to do this in a salary-cap world.

Or did you mean Indy the city is nothing without Peyton? :wink:

Hmmm…the Saints are in a franchise tag dispute with Brees, and are getting tons of negative publicity every day because of the bounty scandal. Peyton Manning, son of Archie Manning, who I believe ranks third in all time popularity in New Orleans behind Jesus Christ and the Junkyard Dog, becomes available. I wonder…

I would be very interested to hear the private talks between Manning and Co about his bonus. By all accounts, Manning is not your typical money-grubbing NFL jerk. I don’t think money was more than a side-issue with this.

And, yes, Manning put Indy as a city on the map, and they will fade substantially without him. He’s wrapped up his life in that city, and this is a big slap in the face to those contributions. Too bad, too - Indy is a great city.

As a 49ers fan, I can only hope they’re a dark horse to get him.

You do realize that Jim is the OWNER and likely won’t fire himself.

This reminds me of the fans who hated that the Packers cut Bret Favre for Aaron Rodgers. It was the right move in the long run for the Packers, and the right move in the long run for the Colts. There’s no reason to think Manning would be worth what they’ll have to pay him; better to spend the money elsewhere.

Even if the team kept Manning, they were not likely to do all that well. Maybe Luck fails, but he is a better bet for 2014 than Manning.

Excellent point - I got a little excited there :smiley:

I bet we can find a way to get rid of him…:cool:

Leaving Luck aside, why the assumption that Manning wouldn’t do well?

I do have to wonder if Manning really wanted to go back.Obviously 28 mil is a nice incentive, but I doubt he really needs the money. He had to watch all of last year thinking “damn, these guys really suck, I have been carrying the fucking team for years all by myself” Getting a chance to go to a team with some other real players, while saving his goodwill legacy by looking like the dumpee rather than the dumper, may be a golden ticket for him.

Rob Lowe said he was going to retire, and if he was going to retire, why has he been working out with Colts WRs to demonstrate his arm strength? I would say Miami is the prohibitive favorite to sign him.

Small difference: the Packers had Rodgers for three years before they got rid of Favre. He got very little game action, but they had three years to prepare him. The Colts are getting rid of Manning for a draft pick. That’s certainly riskier. But it does look like the Colts have made the decision that what they have is not salvageable and that it’s time to start over.

If you are the owner and have to put $28 million on a bet you certainly do a lot to check your odds. This is particularly true after a miserable season that tells you nothing other than that you need to rebuild your team. Say they pay the $28M to Peyton and he gets hurt early. Another lost season. If they spend the money on rebuilding and have some Luck (pun intended) at least they save the season and move ahead a year early. Indy has to be looking at the Lions. Bradford has revitalized a miserable franchise. The Pack and the Favre/Rogers situation also has to be an inspiration.

In pro football, players are meat on a hook. There is no incentive for owners or GM’s to be sentimental. Just ask Hines Ward.

Even more than that, say they pay the $28M to Peyton, and he comes back good as ever for the next three years, but the supporting cast is poor enough that they go 8-8. What then? Now Peyton retires for real at the end of this time, you’ve gained nothing, and you’ve rebuilt nothing.

This is the right move for the Colts, and frankly, the right move for Manning. That’s not a good team in Indianapolis right now. Manning won’t change that on his own. Luck won’t either, of course, but Luck will (probably) still be in the NFL the next time the Colts have a Super Bowl caliber supporting cast with which to surround him, and Manning almost definitely will not be.

Indy is not much with Peyton. They were the worst team in the league last year, and even if Manning comes back playing at the level he was at in 2009, it’s implausible in the extreme that he takes them to a championship – best case scenario, they get back to 9 or 10 wins, and get a wild-card berth. Big whoop.

And after that, it gets worse; in 2013, Manning will be 37. For reference:

Marino: Last good season at 35.
Fouts: Last good season at 34.
Unitas: Last good season at 34.
Aikman: Last good season at 33.
Favre: Six seasons after age 35; only good in two of them.
Montana: Had a good season at 38, then retired.
Elway: Had a good season at 38, then retired.

Mind you, in all of the above “good season” just means above-average. Almost none of those guys were producing at a top level when they were over 36. It’s possible that Manning will come right back at his top form, and then hold it until he’s 39 or 40 … but if he does, it’ll be something that’s never been done before.

History tells us first-round QBs are basically 50/50 propositions; if Luck has even a 1 in 4 chance of being the kind of franchise QB that all the scouts see, it’s still a better proposition than the odds of getting more than maybe 2-3 decent seasons out of Manning.

Actually, RealityChuck said “Even if the team kept Manning, they were not likely to do all that well.” He wasn’t just talking about Manning.

As was well-documented last year, there were an awful lot of problems with the Colts in 2011, and only some of them could be traced to Manning’s absence. A lot of their key players have grown long in the tooth, and they aren’t getting any younger.

And, that’s not even factoring in the fact that we still don’t know if Manning’s arm strength will return to the point where he can be an effective quarterback.

And, just to add to your statement, that leaves the owners with $28 million to attract a few promising players in the rebuilding process.

I grew up in the “old school” of loyalty and whatever. I don’t “like” the move but I understand it. Under current conditions I would release Manning if it would release $28 million that I could use to rebuild. That’s sports business today. With a rebuild that would produce some wins and playoffs the $28 million could be turned into $100 million. Ask the Lions.